KNOCKOUT LESSON TO OPPOSITION: I GOT HIT BY A PUNCH I DIDN'T SEE

 

"Buboy where are you? ... What happened, is the fight over?"

Knocked out and sprawled across the canvas, Manny Pacquiao looked for and asked his childhood buddy after he had regained consciousness. Juan Manuel Marquez hit Pacquiao's exposed chin with a stunning right hand which Marquez called his "perfect punch."

"I got hit by a punch I didn't see... I got careless," Pacquiao later said during the post-fight interview.

That's a good lesson to the opposition today amid the hustle and bustle of the upcoming election. The opposition got hit by a punch it didn't see in both the 2016 and 2019 elections. What happened then? To explain, I will use, not a boxing metaphor (sorry macho men), but a double-barreled shotgun analogy.

FIRST BARREL: WEAPONIZED SOCIAL MEDIA

Below excerpted from the commencement speech of Maria Ressa, Nobel Peace Prize laureate, delivered at 2019 Columbia Journalism School graduation.

"The battle for truth. This is at the heart of protecting our democracies. We know, have always known, that information is power. And these times as you join us at the frontlines, these times prove that. Propaganda has always been around. Everyone will tell you that but we've never felt that like today because technology has enabled mass manipulation at a scale I could never have imagined. At its heart, is this creative destruction of our information ecosystem. Exponential attacks online are new weapons unleashed against journalists and activists around the world. It is personal. It is psychological. It is meant to pound you to silence.

"In 2016, after a series exposing government's propaganda machine, we called it propaganda war, I was pounded by the hour, by an average of 90 hate messages per hour. This is symmetrical warfare, information operations, and it comes directly to your cell phones. No news organization, no one, can protect you from that.

"At the heart of all this, our American social media technology platforms, they've taken away the gatekeeping power of the journalists but they neglected the responsibilities. They are now the largest distributors of news, allowing lies to spread faster than facts. Laced with anger and hate, these lies fuel the worst of human nature, imploding democracies around the world. This is "death by a thousand cuts." Like an accelerant in a fire, they help elect populist and authoritarian-style leaders. In the case of the Philippines, it helps maintain the popularity of our president. He's been popular. It's trumpeted exponentially on Facebook, astroturfing and creating a bandwagon effect that had an impact on our midterm election.

"Just last night, our new senators were elected. And for the first time since 1938, not one opposition senator is joining the Philippine Senate."

Maria Ressa's speech below delivered at Yale Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, March 3, 2020.

"[T]his is the fourth year in a row that the Philippines is the social media capital. 100% of Filipinos are on the internet, 100% are on Facebook. Facebook is our internet. I interviewed Cambridge Analytica whistleblower, Chris Wiley, and I asked him, "What role did the Philippines play?" He called (Philippines) the Petri dish. He said in countries like ours, because of the young population, 100 million people, the median age is 23 years old. Because of that, they tested these tactics of mass manipulation in our country, and if it worked on us, they brought it to you. They brought it to the United States to Europe. So Petri dish is his word and he said that if it worked in the countries like the Philippines and Nigeria, that they would then port the tactics over.

"Historical revisionism. It's not done by say, starting here and jumping there, you do it little, step by step. How do you turn Marcos from someone kicked out of the country to a hero?

"And they did it by cut and paste comments in Facebook pages and the comments look normal. It's just meant to shift the way you think a little bit."

[It is worthy to note that although the right-wing Cambridge Analytica's malpractice was uncovered in a scandal that shook the tech world and subsequently brought about its closure, be forewarned by the following words from the British company's top honcho]:

"[W]e have to be very subtle. It may be that we have to contract under a different name. A different entity, with a different name. So that no record exists with our name attached to this all."

Caution: Keep an eye on Cambridge Analytica's local copycats and Sino-versions.

FIRST SHELL: RESENTMENT 

Resentment (single source of totalitarian ideologies) is the lethal shell loaded in the first barrel of weaponized social media. Shooting a barrage of resentful messages laced with noxious anger and toxic hate, these lies fuel the worst of human nature that can implode the kernel of democracy. Resentment is bombarded, not against specific individuals, but against a group, conceived as bearing a pang of collective guilt and punishment. Exhibit A: "Yellows"

SECOND BARREL: WEAPONIZED LAW

Randy David in his PDI column "Weaponizing The Law" asked:

"Who would have thought Chief Justice Maria Lourdes Sereno, after five years of leading the country's highest court, could be removed from her position by quo warranto – a legal action that questions a person's authority to exercise or occupy a public office?"

"And who would have thought that a sitting senator, Leila de Lima, Mr.Duterte's fiercest critic, could be arrested and detained without bail, for conspiracy to trade in illegal drugs – on the basis of testimonies of convicted drug criminals?"

"But, nothing perhaps can equal the absurdity of reopening the rebellion and coup d'etat charges against Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV, another outspoken critic of Mr. Duterte, on the ground that the amnesty he received, which had prompted the dropping of these charges, was void ab initio."

SECOND SHELL: FEAR

This warning by one officer to a reporter during Maria Ressa's arrest speaks volumes and needs no elaboration:

"Be silent. Or, you're next."

OPPOSITION POLITICAL CANVAS

The above scene is the political canvas the opposition has been sprawling on after it was knocked out in both the 2016 and 2019 elections. Let me conclude this article with George Santayana's forewarning:

"Those who cannot remember the past, are condemned to repeat it."

All Souls Day is set aside for honoring the dead -- a serendipitous day to share this reflection:

1. Drug war total death tolls: 6,191 (PDEA as of 10/31/2021, CHR reported a higher figure)

2. ICC will uncover everything during its drug war investigation.

3. History is a stern judge of men for the legacies they leave behind.

"I got hit by a punch I didn't see... I GOT CARELESS."

If the opposition loses the 2022 election, because of CARELESSNESS (like Grace Poe's game-changing breakaway from Mar Roxas in 2016), HEEDLESSNESS (lack of care and personal ambition by ignoring the 1Sambayan's noble unifying mission derived from the past lesson), and RECKLESSNESS (thoughtless of the consequences of thousands of deaths and counting), the essence of Santayana's word "condemned" will be turned to "poetic justice" for those opposition members who will be held accountable.

MILLENNIALS' QUERY: WILL I VOTE FOR BONGBONG?

 

I suggest 5 factors Millennials must examine.

FACTOR I. LOOT

If you Google "Marcos Loot," you will get 5,610,000 results in 0.53 seconds. Top 10 results:

1. "P174B recovered from Marcos loot, P125B more to get" - Rappler, Sep 29, 2021

2. "The $10bn question: what happened to the Marcos millions?" – The Guardian, May 7, 2016

3. "Unexplained wealth of the Marcos family" – Wikipedia

4. "Where did Marcos Hide His $10 Billion Fortune? – Bloomberg, June 28, 2021

5. "Marcos' loot: the details – and the relevance today – CMFR-Phil, Oct 8, 2021

6. "Law of Duterte Land: Marcos ill-gotten loot and where to find it" – Facebook, Oct 5, 2021

7. "Anti-graft court orders turnover to PH gov't of P1B Marcos loot" – YouTube

8. "Where Marcos stashed multibillion loot" – Inquirer, Sep 17, 2017

9. "Marcos's Loot May Be Shared by Filipino Victims" – The New York Times, Oct 28, 1995

10. "The Buddha, the gold, and the myth: How Marcos looted the Central Bank" – Amazon, Jan 1, 1997

FACTOR II. ECONOMY

"It's the economy, stupid" is a phrase, according to Wikipedia, coined by James Carville, the strategist in Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign. Here and now, I suggest you read "The Marcos years according to statistics" by Andrew J. Marasigan in his Philstar column "The Corner Oracle" on Oct 27, 2021 as excerpted below:

"Numbers don't lie and records show that the economy grew by an anemic annual growth rate of only 3.8 percent during Marcos' 21-year rule. The peso depreciated from a strong P3.92 to one US dollar in 1965 to P19.99 in 1986; per capita income (nominal) increased by only three-fold over 21 years while it increased ten-fold in Thailand and Malaysia. Unemployment was at 7.2 percent in 1965 and surged to 33 percent in 1986. Poverty rates were at 7.2 percent in 1965 and rose to a staggering 44.2 percent in 1986.

"With so much economic wreckage and debt under Marcos' leadership, it was only in 2004 that the country was able to surpass GDP per capita income of 1982. We lost two decades of economic development – four decades if you include Marcos' 21 years in office. A generation of mismanagement is why the country remains a lower-middle-income economy today."

FACTOR III. PROVERBS

"A proverb is a short, generally known sentence of the folk which contains wisdom, truth, morals, and traditional views in a metaphorical, fixed, and memorizable form and which is handed down from generation to generation." (Wolfgang Mieder)

"Like father, like son." A son's character or behavior can be expected to resemble that of his father. Qualis pater, talis filius ("as the father, so the son") and patris est filius ("he is his father's son") are Latin sayings cited as the source of the English proverb. Other similar proverbs are:

"The apple doesn't fall far from the tree."

"Birds of a feather flock together"

As the old crows so does the young

FACTOR IV. BIBLE

"Every good tree produces good fruit, but a rotten tree produces bad fruit. A good tree cannot produce bad fruit, and a rotten tree cannot produce good fruit." Matthew 7:17-18

"Grapes are not picked from thorn bushes." Luke 6:44

FACTOR V. SNIPPET OF THE PAST

Excerpted from the book "Impossible Dream: The Marcoses, the Aquinos, and the Unfinished Revolution" by Sandra Burton.

Day 3, February 25, 1986

"It was a pathetic performance. Marcos continued to play the role of an absolute ruler as if he still had a kingdom. Hopelessly isolated from the reality of the revolt, which was now all but over, he announced that he was accepting the resignation of Ramos and declaring a state of emergency. Parodying his martial law proclamation of fifteen years before, he announced that he was taking over all public utilities. Broadcasting stations, he said, would have to "confirm all news with the minister of information."

"The pressure inside the palace was taking its toll on the sleepless First Family. After the press conference, BONGBONG MARCOS PULLED A GUN on a presidential aide whom he accused of mishandling his father's television appearance. (Underscoring mine)

Day 4, February 25, 1986

"And 2:45 a.m. Manila time, Marcos placed a call to Senator Laxalt. It was an afternoon in Washington, and Laxalt was meeting in a Capitol Hill office with Armacost and Habib. Marcos had received not only President Reagan's message offering him asylum and the stronger verbal message relayed by Blas Ople, but the blunt public statement from the White House as well. Yet he was not ready to concede defeat.

"They are telling me not to use force, how do they expect me to govern?" a belligerent Marcos asked Reagan's friend.

"After conferring with the president, Laxalt called Marcos back. By now it was 5:30 in the morning in Manila. The senator told him that power-sharing would be impractical and undignified. He repeated the president's invitation to the Marcoses to move to the U.S. His considerable reserves of determination and defiance now practically depleted, Marcos turned to Laxalt for advice. What should he do? He asked. Laxalt put it to him straight.

"I think you should cut and cut cleanly. I think the time has come."

AFTERTHOUGHT

A family was having dinner when they heard a knock on the door. The father opened the door, talked briefly to the visitors, closed the door, and then came back to the dining table, and said:

"Out-of-town guys looking for a space to rent. We have an idle basement. But, not in our home. Their boss -- I know his father."

If you're the head of the family, won't you think and do the same?

PH PETRI DISH-TYPE SITUATION IN 2016 ELECTION CAN HAPPEN AGAIN IN 2022

 

"Where the Philippines goes, America follows. Take the weaponization of social media. We were a test case for America." (Maria Ressa)

Unwavering scholar in the global information ecosystem, Ressa predicted the US Jan 6 insurrection. Many rioters planned and coordinated their actions using social media platforms. The select committee investigating the riot is seeking a massive tranche of records from social media companies on whose platforms many rioters charged in the Capitol attack carried out the activities associated with the efforts to overturn the US 2020 election.

How did Ressa get her prediction right?

She interviewed, Rappler reported, the Cambridge Analytica whistleblower Christopher Wylie who revealed that the Philippines was a perfect place to test their techniques and technology due to: questionable rule of law, high social media usage, and corrupt politicians. He explained:

"A lot of time when [Cambridge Analytica] was looking to experiment with techniques, experiment with AI [artificial intelligence], experimenting with ways of – whether it's manipulating voter opinion or disseminating propaganda, what have you... It creates an ideal Petri dish-type situation where you can experiment on tactics and techniques that you wouldn't be able to as easily in the West... and if it doesn't work, it doesn't matter, you won't get caught. And if it does work, then you can then figure out how to port that into other countries"

Did Cambridge Analytica help PRRD win?

"It appears that 6 months before the United States presidential elections in 2016, Cambridge Analytica, a British political consulting firm, also had a hand in the Philippine presidential race," Rappler reported.

South China Morning Post reported that Cambridge Analytica helped PRRD.

"Facebook finally blocks Duterte's army of trolls," Asia Times headlined. "Similar to right-wing populists around the world, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has been among the greatest beneficiaries of social media platforms, where his propagandists command huge followings at the expense of broadly liberal mainstream media."

PETRI DISH-TYPE SITUATION

"If it doesn't work, it doesn't matter, you won't get caught." The covert operation sounds benign. But, it's deadly and deceptive because it's almost undetectable to the whole populace. The successful test or experiment looked like a dropped bomb but no one knew about it. In her keynote address upon receiving the 2019 Shorenstein Journalism Award presented by Stanford University, Maria Ressa shed light on the shadowy landscape defaced by the covert implosion, as extracted (and edited for space) below:

If you can make people believe lies are the facts, then you can control them. If you want to rip the heart out of the democracy, you go after facts, that's what modern authoritarians do.

Step 1: You lie all the time.

Step 2: It's your opponents and the journalists who lie.

Step 3. What's Truth? There is no truth.

Step 4. Resistance is impossible. The game is over.

If you have no facts you have no civic engagement. When you say a lie a million times it becomes a fact. It replaces fact.

Global Phenomenon

·       "Patriotic Trolling" – State-sponsored online hate & harassment campaigns to silence & intimidate

·         Flood the market with false news, disinformation

·         Women are a favorite, easy target

3 Steps in the Philippines: A Case Study

1. Attack credibility. Allege corruption. Repeat exponentially.

2. Use sexual violence. Inflame biases. Fuel misogyny. Degrade as a sexual object.

3. Trend #Arrest LeiladeLima; #ArrestMariaRessa as Exhibits A & B

Disinformation is like feeding you drugs. Once or twice you take it, not so bad. You can go back to being who you are. But if you take it all the time, it's like a drug, then you'll become an addict. Then you're no longer the same person. Think about our body politics, we're drugged, we're addicted, part of the problem we're having now with our democracy.

We are now seeing Chinese disinformation networks coming into our information ecosystem. We're being fed with poison. There's a virus that's being pumped into our body politics. And we are slowly dying.

Online and offline violence creates fear. People are afraid. Anyone who questions the brutal drug war or supports those who fight for truth is attacked with the full force of the Philippine government. Our law, in addition to social media, is weaponized. I am a cautionary tale.

What do we need to do?

We start with our area of influence. Demand accountability from powers. Stand up against the police. Report the lies. Tell your families and friends. Courage spread. We take care of what is in front of us.

Lies laced with anger and hate spread faster than facts.

Let me leave you, despite this, journalists are holding the line. The baton was passed to me at a really difficult time, and sometimes I wish it wasn't my time right now. But I have no choice.

RESSA'S ORDEAL

Interviewed by New York Times after being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, Maria Ressa narrated her ordeal:

"It's horrific. I felt this, and we could see because we monitor – I think that's the other thing that Rappler had. We had a research team. Here's what they found in studying almost half a million social media attacks against me, from 2016. So 60% of the attacks are meant to tear down my credibility. And then, the other 40% are meant to tear down my spirit that includes death threats, that includes trying to find my weakness. I have a mole in my nose. I have eczema. I have dry skin, atopic dermatitis. So one of the memes that they spread is – a weakness, was a vulnerability. But then, when they spread it, they made it strength for me. I don't mind telling you now, I have atopic dermatitis.

"But what they did is they dehumanized me by constantly using me as a meme. I've been called every animal you can think of. The worst part is their nickname for me, which they even did code words for, which is scrotum face. So they took my head and then spliced it onto human genitals. And this would be months where I would wake up and the comments of their echo chambers would be filled with this horrific image. And it takes a while to recover, but I recovered. And I realized that part of every recovery from this sharing it with people. That's when I know that the sting is gone.

"And here's the part our data showed us. Our data showed us that women were attacked at least 10 times more than men. So this connects to that question of changing the culture. So if women are attacked 10 times more than men, what's the end goal of these attacks? There are two. The first is to pound the target to silence. The second is to create a bandwagon effect, manufactured reality, to make anyone else who's not aware of it think that this is true."

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." (George Santayana)

A TALE OF TWO LADIES: MARIA RESSA AND REBECCA "CRYING LADY" QUIJANO

 

Princeton University graduate Maria Ressa has been a journalist in Asia for more than 30 years. A former CNN's bureau chief in Manila and Jakarta, she co-founded Rappler, now one of the PH leading online news organizations.

IT IS THE BEST OF TIMES

Maria Ressa is the first Filipino recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize, and also the first woman to receive such a prestigious award this year. For Ressa, the award stands for her self-sacrifice risking her life to bring to light corruption and injustice. For Pinoys, the timely award is critical for the country with the upcoming presidential election which Ressa called an "existential moment." And "for all journalists around the world," Ressa said, the award is like "a shot of adrenaline" for all of them who "need help on so many fronts" ... and hope it "allows journalists to do [their] jobs well without fear."

"I congratulate Maria Ressa of the Philippines and Dmitry Muratov of Russia for the much-deserved honor of being named this year's winners of the Nobel Peace Prize. Like so many journalists around the world, Ressa and Muratov have pursued the facts – tirelessly and fearlessly. They have worked to check the abuse of power, expose corruption, and demand transparency ... they have faced constant threats, harassment, and intimidation, legal action ... I, along with people everywhere, am grateful for their groundbreaking work to 'hold the line,' as Ressa so often says." (US President Joe Biden)

"Maria Ressa has not shied away to demonstrate her commitment to facts as the basis for truth and trust in a democracy. Her dedication to journalism, in the face of numerous ongoing legal actions and her conviction, is an inspiration to all who believe in the importance of free and independent journalism. Her work offers hope not only to the people in the Philippines but across South-East Asia and the world." (High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrel)

"Maria Ressa and Dmitry Muratov's Nobel Peace Prize win is a victory not only for independent, critical journalism in the Philippines and Russia but for the fight for justice, accountability, and freedom of expression all over the world." (Secretary-General of Amnesty International Agnes Callamard)

IT IS THE WORST OF TIMES

Maria Ressa, after being convicted under the controversial Philippine Anti-Cybercrime law, was found guilty of "cyber libel" last June 2020. If found guilty also of other charges, she faces up to 60 years in prison. Across the board, Rappler and its officers and staff have faced at least 11 government investigations and court cases: libel, foreign ownership, and tax returns. An attack on press freedom: how Amnesty International and many rights groups around the world have deemed Ressa's conviction and condemned it.

On August 21, 1983, Rebecca Quijano was the first civilian eyewitness of the shooting of Ninoy Aquino on the tarmac of Manila International Airport. A political critic of former President Ferdinand Marcos, Aquino just landed when he was shot in the head while being escorted to a waiting vehicle to transport him to prison.

"Are you sure it was Aquino?" asked reporters rushing toward Rebecca.

"They already killed Aquino; why are you not crying yet?" she replied triggering her "Crying Lady" moniker in news media.

Suddenly, she was pulled backward, before she could say more.

"Don't talk or you'll get hurt," someone said to her.

Rebecca's account was the strongest evidence offered by the prosecution in the investigation of the assassination of Ninoy Aquino by the Agrava Fact-Finding Board Commission. To instill fear among the eyewitnesses, Rebecca was singled out in public as she stepped off the plane.

"[The witnesses] have become convinced it would be unhealthy for them to speak out," said Andres Narvasa, the board's general counsel.

Four other witnesses' appearances were canceled after they recanted their testimonies. After having learned the military was asking questions about her, Rebecca, with her family and friends, got so fearful she decided to keep quiet.

Two ladies. Two periods. One Common Enemy: Fear.

The enemy is fear. We think it is hate; but, it is fear. (Mahatma Gandhi)

The following US newspaper banner speaks volumes about such societal fear:

No One In The Philippines Would Air A Documentary About Press Freedom (The Washington Post)

The documentary was "A Thousand Cuts," a chilling film on the repression of journalism and growing disinformation in PH. Premiered in Sundance, the documentary film earned rave reviews and watched in nearly every European nation. Philippa Kowarsky, managing director of international distributor Cinephil, said: "There's a fear in the [PH] air and people don't know how far they can walk, where the line is, where they can endanger their livelihood and their lives." The fear has spawned what Kowarsky called "a culture of silence."

Mahar Mangahas of Social Weather Stations concluded from his recent survey analysis:

"Most [Pinoys], from north to south, say it is dangerous for media people to be critical of the administration. Most people, from all walks of life, say the same. In the past two years, [Pinoys] haven't been seeing press freedom."

A Singaporean cartoonist, Leslie Chew, put into thought-provoking words what has been beneath the slick surface of the gleaming high-rises of his bustling but repressive modern city-state:

"It is less that they want to sue someone than that they want to send a message to others not to say things – to perpetuate the culture of fear ... They slaughter the chicken to scare the monkeys."

What's bugging the mind of a real Pinoy journalist today each time he or she drafts his critical-of-the-administration piece? Let me hazard (no pun intended) a guess: For this piece, am I ready to end up like Maria Ressa? Oh-oh, I have no Maria Ressa's protection.

Fight and you may die. Run and you'll live – at least a while. And dying in your beds many years from now, would you be willing to trade all the days from this day to that for one chance, just one chance to come back here and tell our enemies that they may take our lives, but they'll never take our freedom?

(William Wallace)

"[D]o not be afraid of them, for there is nothing concealed that will not be disclosed, or hidden that will not be made known." (Mt. 10:26)

PINOYS PROPENSITY FOR GAMBLING ONCE AGAIN WILL AFFECT THE PH 2022 ELECTION

 

Reporter: Does this [running for the presidency] the party's convincing Mayor Sara Duterte?

Senator Bato: I don't know if they talked about it. As for me, I am running to become the next President of the Republic of the Philippines.

Reporter: Sir, is this not a mockery of the election process?

Senator: Why? Do I look like a mockery to you? I won as a senator. Number 5 in the last election. Is it a mockery to the 19 million Filipinos who voted for me as a senator of this republic?

Question: Dear Reader, do you think the 19 million Pinoys that voted for Senator Bato believe he would be worthy of being addressed as President Bato?

Before you answer the question, I suggest you read the following article which may help formulate your answer.

"People participate in Philippine elections for the same reason they go to cockfights, it is highly entertaining as spectator sports," wrote Joel Rocamora of the Institute for Popular Democracy in his article Formal Democracy and its Alternatives in the Philippines. Hyperbole? Or, there's more to the statement than meets the eye. Cockfighting is Pinoys' popular pastime among other gambling activities: casino, sweepstakes, jueteng, masiao, last two, suer-tres, horse race, jai alai, street games(hearty dos, mahjong, tong-its, sakla),spider wrestling.

Many years ago, the familiar rhythmical sounds that ranged from the utter silence to the measured shouting, then to the sudden yelling, coming periodically from the crowd in an old stadium used as a cockfighting arena around 50 meters from our house, were a good reminder for me at that time that it was a Sunday. Not in cockfighting, my parents were drawn in mahjong, not as gamblers, but as the host who owned mahjong sets, and invited friends in our neighborhood in playing the game at our house and earned extra income for our family through winners' commissions. As a kid, I was fond of the spider-wrestling game. I recall, we would go out at night, together with my friends, carrying flashlights, and would look for rare types of spiders in shrubs and trees. In finding spiders, the more terrible-looking the better – it meant for us that they're deadlier. We put them in matchboxes for safekeeping before the fights the next day.

Wikipedia spelled out the cultural impact of gambling as follows:

Gambling has contributed to the Philippines' culture and identity ever since its introduction and rise in popularity in the country. Similar to other East and Southeast Asian countries, the Philippines has developed a reputation as a gambling society. This culture of gambling permeates various sectors of the Philippine society, most primarily the rural males.

Amid the pandemic, this gambling culture was aggravated by the proliferation of the P657 Billion a year online sabong industry as disclosed by Jarius Bondoc in his column Gotcha excerpted below:

Online sabong is luring minors and addicting overseas workers. Gambling is brought right into homes and barracks. Families are wrecked, crimes are incited and society is corrupted.

During the campaign period up to the election, the psychology of choosing the winning combination from the list of candidates simulates the following psychological process phenomena that affect the gambling behavior:

BANDWAGON EFFECT

In 2010, a Pinoy chose a single ticket with the winning six numbers from a range of 1-55 and won the biggest jackpot of P741 Million. Hitting the headlines, such publicity would spark anyone off, even if he or she has never bought a ticket before, in "jumping on the bandwagon" and think of buying at least one ticket just in case. This phenomenon is the perfect companion to the bandwagon effect [per Cambridge University Press] caused by surveys: a situation where the information [survey results] about majority opinion [survey's top winners] causes some people [most Pinoys] to adopt [jumping on the bandwagon] for whatever reason [to be on the winning side].

UP Professor Randy David in his column Public Lives asserted the futility in grappling with the situation.

One can hardly blame political parties and coalition for preferring the merely "winnable" (as shown by surveys and past elections) over the truly qualified and worthy candidates ... I think most voters have long surrendered this critical function [of discernment] to the sensors [surveys] of public opinion.

PERSONAL CHOICE

Dr. Luke Clark, Director of the Center for Gambling Research at the University of British Columbia, said that "gambling games promote an 'illusion of control': the belief that the gambler can exert skill over an outcome." Just as a roulette player feels the thrill of a "high" when he throws himself the ball onto the roulette wheel, so too a voter who chooses personally and writes down himself the list of his or her "winning candidates."

NEAR MISSES

The adrenaline rush triggers excitement in playing more when a player's number combination gets closer to winning the jackpot. In like manner, a voter's "happy" hormone dopamine dashes when his or her list of "winning candidates" gets closer to the latest survey results deciphering the event as a sign of progress in projecting the outcome, and that a win of his or her combination is at hand.

The scope this gambling culture has permeated our society based on 2005 SWS survey result was as follows:

1) More than half of all adult Pinoys had engaged in some form of gambling.

2) 6.9 million had played Jueteng - the second most popular form of gambling.

The lump of "undecided" Pinoys that can sway the election results due to the dual effects of gambling propensity and choosing winners in the election: 1 in 3 voters. This proportion is based on SWS survey in September 2021 on "Self-reported freedom to speak against PRRD" that derived a 36% chunk that neither agree nor disagree on the the issue.

BACK TO THE QUESTION

Do you think the 19 million Pinoys that voted for Senator Bato believe he would be worthy of being addressed as President Bato?

No.

Why? The voter chose his name as merely one [like a number in a lotto ticket] among the winning-candidates combination. Senator Bato is just like a candidate that Professor David wrote as preferred by political parties for being "merely 'winnable' [riding on PRRD's popularity corroborated by non-response biased surveys] over the truly qualified and worthy candidates."

Let me conclude this article with a charming sketch by Janice Kennedy, an award-winning playwright:

Consider the Garden of Eden, when it was just Adam, Eve and the Man Upstairs.

"Come on," says Eve to her mate. "Have a bite. Chances are He'll never find out and the prize will be amazing."

So Adam bites, a willing participant in the world's first recorded act of gambling. Creation mythologies from cultures across the globe all involve tales of risk-taking and fate-tempting, which suggests one unassailable fact: The human urge to gamble is profound, universal, and primal.

 

LOOKING AT PH POLITICAL LANDSCAPE WITH MANAGEMENT ANALYTICAL EYEGLASSES

 

FIND A NEED THEN FILL IT

Beyond the shadow of a doubt, even his critics would concede that the election campaign turned out well for PRRD who found in the hearts of Pinoys their crucial need and he filled it – a back-to-basic marketing management principle. What have been Pinoys' needs? According to Borgen Project – a non-profit organization addressing poverty and hunger:

o Over a third of the rural Pinoys are impoverished

o At least two-thirds of poor households are headed by no higher than elementary educated individual

o Four out of 10 poor urban families do not have decent living conditions.

The above three conditions, among others, would consign the majority of Pinoy voters to the twin bottom tiers of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs Model: the physiological (human survival) and the safety (order and control) needs. PRRD's anti-drug/crime campaign pledges were a round peg that filled the round hole of Pinoy needs.

 

As to drugs, this has to stop. It is rampaging all around the country ... My God, try me. That's what I told the Davao criminals before. I had them called out, 'Do you want to go out of the city? ... Those who didn't believe me are dead. What do we have to talk about? – PRRD, translated

 

Minus the hodgepodge of acerbic expletives that spiced them up, his speeches put the audience's minds at rest for having quenched the fear factor of Pinoy voters entrenched at Maslow's bottom tiers of safety and survival. PCO Secretary Martin Andanar expounded:

 

The President speaks in a language every Filipino can understand. Because his speeches are impromptu, they are never stilted. These speeches are never overbearing. They are more closely associated with light banter, the one you pick up as you walk the streets or hang out with friends. They are never tightly structured and therefore never stifling. The thick Visayan accent does not distract; it helps convey authenticity.

 

FOREMAN'S COMPLEX

There was a foreman known for his expertise in house repair. He and his team specialized in sealing cracks and vanishing them from sight, projecting a façade of structural safety. He and his works were so admired that he, with his team, was contracted to do major works in a nearby shopping mall complex. He carried out, without even trying, the necessary repair works of cracks on the building walls like he did with ease in his previous experience. However, bigger cracks and other structural defects were found. He finished his contract with unsatisfied owner-customer.

 

What went wrong? He was hired in his present job not just as a foreman, yet he performed like one. He was so attached to sealing small cracks that he missed looking into the bigger cracks and other defects especially their causes as bases for their repair. The smaller cracks could be caused by temperature differences and sealing them might suffice. However, bigger cracks and other defects might be due to uneven settlement of building foundation which would need specialists to do the repair works. It would be a major job, not for a construction foreman, but a project manager. In this story, PRRD is like the foreman; the small cracks, the drug war.

 

ACTIVE INERTIA

Just as "foreman's complex" gnaws away at construction management; so too "active inertia," at business management. "Active Inertia" is a term coined by Donald Sull, a professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management. Rather than define it, let's take real-life example: The Swiss watch. During its heydays, the Swiss watchmaking industry with their mechanical watches was in so-called "active inertia": its technology was deeply entrenched in its Swiss national identity. When quartz technology, spearheaded by Seiko, arrived on the scene, threatening the mechanical watch to become obsolete, the Swiss industry found it difficult to let go of its old watchmaking belief and to accept that it was beaten in its own game.

 

Thus, we may define "Active Inertia" as a tendency to stick to established patterns of behavior, the modes of thinking and working that had brought past successes. Unwavering in his belief, mistaking action for progress, PRRD and his drug war have been in "active inertia."

 

WHAT WILL YOUR LEGACY BE

When Steve Jobs died 10 years ago, tributes poured, and here's one by Forbes:

 

A visionary. A designer. An exacting CEO. An entrepreneur's entrepreneur. The greatest businessman of the century. The man who redefined the Digital Age. The man who understood what politicians didn't. One of the most important American leaders of his generation. The man who changed industries, redefined business models, fused technology and art. The Thomas Edison of the 21^st century. A genius.

 

Most of us, for sure, pale in comparison to Steve Jobs. But for a 76 years old leader of more than 100 million people, leaving a legacy is a fitting yearning, by the right person, at this appropriate time. Psychologist Erik Erikson called the 65-years-old-and-above bracket's final stage of psychological development – the "age of integrity or wisdom." The other side of the coin is called the "age of despair."

 

Amid the global pandemic deaths closing to the 5 million mark, Erikson challenges us to not only find the gift in the death of a loved one but also to find the gift as we face our death and the diminishment that old age brings. Have you ever asked yourself, "What do I need to do before I die?" M. Scott Peck, M.D. author of "The Road Less Traveled" suggested:

 

"If you are suffering from a sense of meaninglessness or ennui, there is nothing better I can suggest to you than that you strike up a serious relationship with the end of your existence ... Because as you struggle with the mystery of your death, you will discover the meaning of your life.

 

Alfred Nobel became rich by inventing dynamite and explosives. A newspaper mistakenly printed his obituary instead of his brother who had died. Alfred was shocked in reading his obituary that would leave his legacy for making a fortune out of weapons of mass destruction. He had changed his life before he died by using his fortune in rewarding endeavors that benefit humanity. Alfred's legacy is known today as the Nobel Prize.

 

To leave a legacy, PRRD seems to make his way in the final stage of his life's journey as an "age of integrity and wisdom" by these latest twin moves:

1. He said he would be ready to face charges against him before the ICC.

2. He announced that her daughter Sara will not run for president in 2022 indicating he may "get out of the way" to bring about a level-playing-field election.

 

It is never too late to change life's direction. Only the sky is the limit to God's second chances.