Monday 28 February 2022

UKRAINE INVASION HAS PAVED THE WAY FOR VP LENI'S PRESIDENCY


 

“Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” (John Acton)

On the world stage, the disparaging word “pariah” is now synonymous with the name “Putin.” As MSNBC News headlined – “Putin becomes a global pariah in the wake of [Ukraine] invasion: ‘This is Putin’s war, this isn’t Russia’s war.”

THIS WAR IS NOT IN MY NAME

Indeed, it is Putin’s war. Dr. Irina Kuznetsova, who emigrated from Russia to Britain, wrote in The New York Times “This War Is Not In My Name” as excerpted below:

“The so-called history [Putin] cites to justify this aggression is riddled with lies. The line between facts and disinformation has been blurred in Russia for a long time. My family and I are not alone in remembering the horrors of the past century that were carried out in the name of the Soviet Union. The Kremlin has denied key facts around Holodomor, the famine that claimed the lives of millions of Ukrainians. It has whitewashed massacres in Chechnya and the Beslan school attack. Yet we have not forgotten. And we see what has been happening in recent years – political persecutions, expanding repressions, silencing dissent, shuttering Memorial, Russia’s most prominent human rights organization. Step by step, we have seen the denial and attempted erasure of historical truth.”

MONSTER

Russian writer Vladimir Sorokin in his article in The Guardian has a more derogatory word for Putin: “monster” as excerpted below:

“On 24 February, the armor of the “enlightened autocrat” that had housed Vladimir Putin for the previous 20 years cracked and fell to pieces. The world saw a monster-crazed in its desires and ruthless in its decision. The monster had grown gradually, gaining strength from year to year, marinating in its absolute authority, imperial aggression, hatred for western democracy, and malice fueled by the resentment engendered by the fall of the USSR.

“Putin declared that the collapse of the USSR was the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century. For all clear-headed Soviet people, its collapse had been a blessing; it was impossible to find a single-family unscathed by the Red Wheel of Stalinist Repressions. Millions were annihilated. Tens of millions were poisoned by the fumes of communism – an unattainable goal requiring moral and physical sacrifices by Soviet citizens.”

Sorokin narrated a joke on Putin’s preferred slogan: “Russia rising from its knees.” That is, Russia got up from its knees, but quickly got down onto all fours: corruption, authoritarianism, bureaucratic arbitrariness, and poverty. Then, he added: war.

Sorokin has advised a grim warning to all westerners who sympathize with Putin to shut up and realize that a full-scale war is being unleashed in 21st-century Europe.

“The aggressor is Putin’s Russia. It will bring nothing but death and destruction to Europe. This was unleashed by a man corrupted by absolute power, who, in his madness, has decided to redraw the map of our world. If you listen to Putin’s speech announcing a ‘special operation,’ America and NATO are mentioned more than Ukraine. Let us also recall his recent ‘ultimatum’ to NATO. As such, his goal isn’t Ukraine, but western civilization, the hatred for which he lapped up in the black milk he drank from the KGB’s teat.”


MY IDOL

Let me tack on this pertinent information. Putin signed a law that would allow him to run for the presidency twice more in his lifetime, potentially keeping him in office until 2036. He surpassed even that of Joseph Stalin who ruled the Soviet Union for 29 years and made Putin the longest-serving Moscow leader since the Russian empire.

I would hazard a guess. After you read all of the above and what will follow below, I bet you will be relieved to know that we have a Constitution with this provision: “The President of the Philippines is elected by direct vote of the people, and has a term of six years with no provision for reelection.”

“So who would make a good ally?” Al Jazeera television’s Steve Chow asked Duterte and then showed him the name, Vladimir Putin.

“My idol,” Duterte said.

“Idol?” Chow said.

“Yes. He has no illusions about himself. He knows that he was trained for politics. Or to be a statesman. He acts just like a President. My characterization of Putin is what I would describe myself.”

Euro News report:

 “[D]uring a visit to Beijing Rodrigo Duterte denounced America without reservation. ‘America has lost me. I’ve realigned myself in your ideological flow and maybe I will also go to Russia to talk to Putin and tell him that there are three of us against the world – China, Philippines, and Russia. It’s the only way’.” In 2019, PDI bannered: “Duterte off to 2nd Russia visit, to meet ‘favorite hero’ Putin.”

BBM-SARA: FACE OF CONTINUITY

With our present Constitution’s six-year term limit for PRRD, you may heave a sigh of relief. Not yet.

“UniTeam Is ‘Face’ of Continuity of Duterte Reforms – Sara Duterte” (PDI headline, Feb 17, 2022)

“’Great Honor’: Chinese Envoy Meets Bongbong Marcos Anew at Embassy Event” (CNN Philippines, Oct 21, 2021)

Let me tack on another pertinent information. Vastly superior to Putin, Xi Jinping is allowed to remain “president for life” as China removed the term limit on the presidency.

KEY POINTS

“By invading Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin violated his neighbor’s sovereignty and the notion of international law out of the window. Afraid of one organization, NATO, Putin ignored the principles of another organization, the United Nations, as well as an agreement known as the Budapest Memorandum, signed by Russia, and specifically meant to protect Ukraine from invasion.” (The New York Times)

“CHINA IS DISMEMBERING A HUGE CHUNK OF [PHILIPPINES] AND MAKING IT PART OF ITS OWN… What China is doing to a big part of our dominion is no different from what it did to Tibet and what it wants to do to Taiwan. IT IS NO DIFFERENT FROM WHAT RUSSIA IS PREPARING TO DO [war’s underway] IN UKRAINE.” (Excerpted from PDI Joel Ruiz Butuyan’s column, underscoring mine).

WPS: VP LENI’S POSITION

VP Leni spelled out her position on the West Philippine Sea during the CNN Philippines presidential debate.

Day One ng aking presidency ang concepto ng instrument of national power ang aking susundin. Ano ito?

(Day One of my presidency, I will abide by the concept of the instrument of national power. What is it?)

1. Diplomacy. Papalakasin natin ang pakikipag-ugnayan natin sa ating mga allies, at ng mga ibang bansa na pareho ang paniniwala sa atin, para mayroon tayong kakampi just in case mayroong aggression.

(We will strengthen the cooperation with our allies and other countries with the same beliefs with us so that we will be a part of an alliance just in case of aggression.)

2. Information. Seseguraduhin natin na ang pamahalaan natin ang nangunguna, para i-push yong isang national consensus para magkaisa ang mga Pilipino behind it.

(We will ensure our government will spearhead so we can push forward the national consensus to unite Filipinos behind it.)

3. Military. Seseguraduhin natin na pupunduhan natin yong ating Armed Forces of the Philippines para maka pag put up tayo ng credible defense against sa ating mga aggressors hindi man natin mapantayan yong lakas ng ibang bansa, at least mayroon tayong ilalaban sa kanila pareho ng pinapakita ngayon ng Ukraine.

(We will ensure to allocate resources to our Armed Forces of the Philippines so we can put up credible defense against our aggressors. Though we cannot be a match for the military power of other countries, at least we can fight them like what the Ukrainians have shown.)

4. Economy. Seseguraduhin natin magiging resilient ang ating economiya para hindi tayo naiipit ng mga predatory practices ng ibang mga foreign powers.

(We will ensure that our economy will be resilient so we will not be exploited by the predatory practices of foreign powers.)

BOTTOM LINE

The Ukraine invasion has paved the way for VP Leni’s presidency.



Friday 25 February 2022

NEW ELECTION BATTLE: VP LENI VS. THE REST OF THEM


 

Weighing against VP Leni today, Marcos Jr. is no more than just a straw man – his laziness unearthed by his father’s diary, his lies unveiled by his shifty education, and his cowardice unmasked by his dreading the debates. He is a run-of-the-mill candidate who holds on to his presidential ambition by no more than just clinging to the opinions of 1,200 people (50% of survey respondents which his operatives have been fighting tooth and nail to keep “at all costs”) -- propped up by his family’s gargantuan ill-gotten wealth which, by the way, belongs to the Filipino people. Solid North? Leni, just being a widow, who derailed Marcos Jr.’s 2016 bid for Marcoses’ lofty political comeback, was a far cry from the VP Leni today, who as an exploding "pink star” has been turning the political landscape of each city into “pink” terrain with her campaign rally. UniTeam? Lethal "variants" – Leni-Sara & Isko-Sara -- are tearing it down.

Let’s sort this out to a greater extent.

VP LENI’S TALLY OF ENDORSEMENTS

160 Economists plus 5 former NEDA chiefs & former CB deputy governor

150+ Law deans and professors nationwide

180,000-member Alliance of Concerned Teachers

1,000+ Educators of the La Salle schools in the country

400 Educators of the University of Santo Tomas

150+ Human Rights Lawyers (FLAG, SALIGAN, ALG, UPL)

130 Former Officials & Staff of Philippine Commission on Women (PCW)

23 Former President Fidel V. Ramos government officials

47 Former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo government officials

95 Former President Benigno Aquino Jr. administration government officials

16 Former Presidents of the Philippine Bar Association

Current & Former Heads/Presidents of Schools, Colleges, and Universities

Individual Faculty Members & Staff of Ateneo Professional Schools

PHILRECA Party List (represents 121 electric cooperatives, 23 FVR officials)

Pamalakaya (Fishermen’s group)

Makabayan

Pinunong Pinay Power

4 Women Leaders of Indigenous Tribes from Mindanao

Five National Artists of the Philippines

1Sambayan

100+ members of religious order Society of Jesus (Pope Francis religious order)

Pari Madre Misyonero Para Kay Leni (Religious men and women in Philippines)

Sangguniang Laiko ng Pilipinas

De La Salle Brothers of the Taft Community

Missionary Benedictine Sisters of St. Scholastica’s Priory

Couples For Christ International Council

Ang Ligaya ng Panginoon Community

Tahanan ng Panginoon Community

GROUPS SAY “NO” TO MARCOS JR. PRESIDENCY

Anakbayan

Samahan ng Ex-Detainees Laban sa Detensyon at Aresto (SELDA)

Campaign Against the Return of the Marcoses and Martial Law (CARMMA)

Kapatid-Families and Friends of Political Prisoners

Kabataan Partylist of Negros

League of Filipino Students-Bacolod

ACT Teachers Party-List-Cordillera

National Council of Churches in the Philippines (NCCP)

VP LENI’S “MARKET-FRIENDLY” ADMINISTRATION

“[Ms.] Robredo is likely seen as more qualified to oversee a post-pandemic recovery as the incumbent vice-president, as well as her platform of implementing a strategic roadmap that focuses on key sectors such as healthcare and education,” Singapore-based Nomura Global Research’s chief ASEAN economist Euben Paracuelles and analysts Ranga Cipta, Craig Chan, and Wee Choon Teo stressed in a report “Philippines: No Holiday Cheer.” Nomura gave Leni-Kiko tandem a perfect score for national experience and business friendliness.

US NOD & EU-VP LENI GOAL CONGRUENCE

“The announcement by President Joe Biden of another lady envoy to the country comes at almost the same time as the official start of our presidential election campaign, a not-so-subtle signal for Leni Robredo. On May 9, the Filipino voter is faced with a crucial choice – to go along with Joe Biden, or to kowtow to Xi Jinping.” (Excerpted from Ramon J. Farolan’s PDI column “Uncle Sam signals support for Leni”)

“The European Parliament issued a resolution on Thursday underscoring the human rights situation in the Philippines and warning of the withdrawal of the country’s trade privileges with the European Union (EU)… urged Philippine authorities ‘to step up their efforts to ensure fair and free elections and a nontoxic environment‘ for campaigning.” (Excerpted from PDI news item “EU lawmakers warn PH of losing trade perks due to rights record”)

EU’s human rights stance above has buttressed Leni’s fight against PRRD’s drug war which she has brought to the world’s stage.

“We are heartened that the issue of extrajudicial killings in the Philippines today is being discussed in an event such as this. To know that the international community’s eyes are on us and to feel that human rights advocates are watching over our country gives us comfort, courage, and hope.

“We are now looking at some very grim statistics: since July last year. More than 7,000 people have been killed in summary executions.

“We agree that our people deserve nothing less than a safe environment so that anyone can walk the streets safely, whether in daylight or at nighttime. But drug abuse should not be treated as one that can be solved with bullets alone. It must be regarded as it truly is: a complex public health issue, linked intimately with poverty and social inequality.” (Excerpted from Leni’s message in observance of the International Women’s Month, March 15, 2017)


PINK: BEING PAINTED ON PH FACE

“Leni-Kiko camp eyes cases vs. Comelec for ‘unconstitutional’ removal of tarps” (Rappler)

“Presidential bets slam Comelec’s removal of campaign posters in private properties” (GMA network)

“Robredo’s supporters decry Comelec’s ‘Oplan Baklas’ on a mural in Isabela” (Manila Bulletin)

The crux of the above headlines: the “unconstitutional” removal of tarpaulins and posters (put up mostly by Leni and Kiko supporters) in private properties and even those hanging inside the volunteer center. The bright side: those headlines have revealed the breadth and depth of support Leni has been getting from the wide spectrum of Filipino society as spelled out by the following FB netizens:

“This is my first time to witness a lot of Filipinos selflessly using their resources to help a candidate. Leni has inspired doctors to provide free clinics, lawyers free legal consults. There are food drives, feeding programs, concerts, caravans, and all sorts of creative community services to raise awareness and help her win.” (FB netizen Ed Gumboc)

This is a familiar scene wherever and whenever VP Leni is on PH’s face:

“We were at the [Iligan City] plaza as early as 5:30 am so we could park nearby. The people came individually, in twos or threes, some in group of less than 10, mostly mga bata-on [youths] and some families. Wa koy nakit-an nga dagkung trak nga nanghakot (I did not see big trucks carrying and unloading people). Wa say nanghatag ug pagkaon ni snacks (No one handed food not even snacks). Naay duha ka batan-on nga nanghatag ug pink masks (Two youths handed pink masks). Natagaan ko ug 5 ka buok nga ako ra sab gipanghatag sa mga nangayo nga sikad drivers (I got 5 masks and gave them to tricycle drivers who needed them).

“Pagkahuman sa rally, nag announce ang emcee nga nay snacks nga nilung-ag nga kamote ug saging nga gi-andam sa mga “Vendors for Leni” (After the rally, the emcee announced that snacks were available – cooked camote and banana prepared by “Vendors for Leni”). We went there of our own accord because we believe in our VP Leni. (FB netizen Sally Orquieza)

VP LENI VS THE REST OF THEM

This is an election campaign position that has now evolved. For Leni to recognize and take on such a position (which I think she has) is like taking a vaccine to defend her against an election campaign “pathogen”: the divided opposition – its Achilles’ heel. Besides the inescapable damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don’t perceived “quid pro quo,” some opposition candidates may be still waiting for Marcos Jr. disqualification as a “game changer” in the campaign, and thus, have kept on holding on to their presidential ambitions. Be wary, for it could be a “quicksand” to keep on dividing the opposition until the election. It is worthy to remember Marcos Sr.’s mocking words to the opposition in his heydays:

“I cannot lose an election to an opposition that is hopelessly divided. They will tear each other to pieces.”

Hence, today, there should only be Leni’s opponents (including Marcos Jr.). Besides Marcos Jr., each of them had their “share of losing” as the popular “My Way” song phrase goes.

ISKO: THE CLASSIC TRAPO

“A trapo, like the dust rag, is mainly characterized by the opportunist politician who stops at nothing to get what he wants. He is part of a political system that does not play by straight party platforms but goes more by the strength of personalities; allows personalities to float from one political party to another; and is prone to unethical behavior.” (Dennis Acop, Baguio City)

Exhibit A: Dropping his VP Dr. Ong like a hot potato.

Exhibit B: Keeping P50M excess campaign fund to himself

Exhibit C: Salivating PRRD’s endorsement unashamedly.

LACSON: NO GUTS, NO GLORY

Senator Leila De Lima exclaimed:

“Akala ko ba pinagtatawanan  lang ni Sen. Ping itong persecution and harassments being done to me, as he recalls his own harrowing experience with the Mawanay episode. Why is Sen. Ping saying now, based on media reports, that there’s enough basis to now file charges against me prescinding from what transpired at yesterday’s House hearing? Is he convinced of the authenticity and veracity of the “stories” of those obviously perjured witnesses? I’m aghast by some people’s propensity for doublespeak!”

As a presidential wannabe, Lacson possesses no “tough stuff” inside him laid bare by the wrongful detention of Senator De Lima that has revealed his innate flaw. The whole Senate has been enfeebled but Lacson is the one running for the presidency: his ambition deserves the “tough stuff” scrutiny.

PACQUIAO: GOOD INTENTIONS ARE NOT ENOUGH

“The road to hell is paved with good intentions.” (Henry G. Bohn’s A Handbook of Proverbs)

The less said, the better, about Pacman.

LET’S GET READY TO RUMBLE!



Tuesday 22 February 2022

SPIRITUAL TANDEM


 

"In good times and bad times, I'll be on your side forever more... that's what friends are for." – Burt Bacharach & Carole Bayer Sager

PRRD-QUIBOLOY

Together with Philstar Edith Regalado, let's cast a brief look at the Sunday dinner date of PRRD and his spiritual adviser Pastor Apollo Quiboloy. At the latter's Kingdom of Jesus Christ's headquarter, PRRD chatted with his ally for many hours over dinner of sour fish stew, sautéed munggo beans, and fried dried fish. The duo talked about retired Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio and Sen. Manny Pacquiao -- both criticized PRRD on the West Philippine Sea.

Accompanied by Sen. Bong Go, PRRD told the pastor, as his Cabinet had advised, he would not debate Carpio. PRRD appeared to be relaxed while laughing with his long-time Pastor-friend who posted on his FB: "He is not just my mayor, he is not just my friend. He is my brother. We've been friends for 30 years, ever since the time when I only had 15 members..." As the popular beer catchy slogan goes: "Iba ang may pinagsamahan."

Today, officially declared as one of the most wanted suspected sex traffickers by the US, Quiboloy, aka "appointed son of God," "Sir," "Pastor," and "ACQ," is wanted by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) for conspiracy to engage in sex trafficking by force, fraud and coercion, sex trafficking of children, conspiracy, and bulk cash smuggling.

According to the FBI wanted poster, "it is alleged that females were recruited to work as personal assistants, or 'pastorals,' for Quiboloy and that (the) victims prepared his meals, cleaned his residences, gave him massages, and were required to have sex with Quiboloy in what the 'pastorals' called 'night duty'." Moreover, prosecutors in California announced allegations that he and several others had sexually abused female church members aged 12 to 25 in exchange for privileges as well as avoiding "eternal damnation." His multimillion-dollar assets have been documented as ill-gotten.

The self-proclaimed "Appointed Son of God" claimed he stopped an earthquake by simply yelling at it. PRRD said he believes the Pastor's claim and sees nothing wrong about it, and he's hoping he could possess the same power. Quiboloy also warned that the world will suffer a fate "much worse than the Omicron virus" if he is continuously "hurt and persecuted... flesh-eating bacteria immune to any vaccine" will descend upon his alleged persecutors. On the flip side, Quiboloy claimed he chose not to stop a typhoon ripping across the country in its track because he was criticized and ridiculed for his previous claim of stopping an earthquake.

For sure, we may deem Quiboloy as a wacky pastor, yet this former United Pentecostal Church member has claimed 4 million "Kingdom citizens" locally and about 2 million followers abroad. His main Cathedral is located at PRRD's Davao corral -- obviously he has endorsed his long-time friend's daughter's candidacy and her BBM-Duterte UniTeam.


EMPEROR NICHOLAS-RASPUTIN

More than a century ago, a Quiboloy's spitting image cast a shadow over late Imperial Russia in the uncanny character of Grigori Rasputin. Like Quiboloy, Rasputin was a self-proclaimed holy man. Just as Quiboloy befriended PRRD, the latest President of PH, so too Rasputin befriended Nicholas II the last Emperor of Russia. Both spiritual mentors gained considerable influence for being in spitting distance with their respective powerful mentees.

In his article "Rasputin: Sex, Superstition, Hypnosis and Religion," J.C. Scull wrote, "Rasputin gained popularity as superstition, faith, and religion became fashionable throughout Russia... Many in Petersburg high society believed strongly in the strength of Rasputin's prayers... Before long, Rasputin was being showered with attention and often with cash donations. Slowly, the peasant monk began to change. He began to see himself as someone who was destined to do something great and good for the Tsar and Russia."

Rasputin met Emperor Nicholas and Empress Alexandra to become a healer for the imperial couple roused by the Empress' belief that Rasputin had the power in easing the pain and stopping the bleeding of their son Alexei's hemophilia. Dr. S.P. Fedorov, one of Alexie's physicians, made sense of Alexandra's seeing Rasputin as a miracle man: "Rasputin would come in, walk up to the patient, look at him, and spit. The bleeding would stop in no time... How could the empress not trust Rasputin after that?" (Wikipedia)

Like Quiboloy, Rasputin's true stripes were unveiled thereafter. Douglas Smith in his book "Rasputin: Faith, Power and the Twilight of the Romanovs" wrote, "He began to attract acolytes with his earthy wisdom and fluency with Scripture. His most devoted followers were women, with whom he seemed overly intimate, kissing and stroking their hands, and accompanying them to public bathhouses... His scandalous behavior with society ladies and prostitutes, his unseemly intimacy with the royal family, and his influence over policies and appointments had the effect of eroding the authority of the czar."

Publicly and deeply reviled, Rasputin was assassinated. History has judged him for the downfall of the last czar of Russia. Strangely, the royal couple never lost faith in Rasputin. Smith narrated, “Alexandra told Nicholas that Rasputin continued to pray for him from the afterlife.” And when the whole imperial family was executed including their four daughters, book reviewer Steven Lee Myers wrote, “Each wore an amulet bearing a prayer and a picture of Rasputin – the dynasty followed the monk to its grave.”

No one knows the fates that await PRRD and Quiboloy besides the signs of things to come from the International Criminal Court in Hague and the Federal Bureau of Investigation in the US. Former President Donald Trump had his share of this wacky fixation. His spiritual adviser, mega-church pastor, and televangelist Paula White-Cain who preaches “prosperity gospel,” called on “angelic reinforcement” from the continents of Africa and South America for help to reelect Trump and stated later that “demonic confederacies… are attempting to steal the election from Trump.”

We know what happened to Trump’s debunked “Stop the Steal” claim: it led to the US Capitol January 6 insurrection in which one Trump supporter confessed, “Stop the Steal” movement is like a “cult.” The looming midterm election, come November this year, is brewing in the US. This striking sight would seldom fail to invite the passerby’s interest -- a campaign catchy slogan painted on a bus: “Jesus, Guns, Babies” – a seeming mobile job search ad for would-be spiritual advisers.

VELARDE-MARCOS JR.?

Back to PH: “And now the end is near, and so I face the final curtain” goes the popular line of a classic song.  PRRD-Quiboloy spiritual tandem’s curtain call is at hand. Only when history reveals the truth will both grasp the reality that they have bitten off more than they could chew. I hope both will face their respective fates and stand tall.

For the next PH political life cycle, the national leader-spiritual adviser tandem fixation seems to have spawned another life of its own. We can figure out such an ominous prognosis from this recent headline: “Mike Velarde endorses Marcos Jr. UniTeam.”



Friday 18 February 2022

TRUST IS THE FOUNDATION OF ANY RELATIONSHIP

 


"Three things you should never break – promises, trust, and someone's heart," an anonymous writer quoted. While "promises" are for the candidates to keep after the elections, "someone's heart" is for lovers to nurture after Valentine's day. "Trust" is for us to weigh up in this article. What is trust? An anonymous internet quote could help us out in its definition.

"The most expensive thing in the world is Trust. It takes years to build, seconds to break, and forever to repair."

A FRAGILE TRUST

The story of John Blair is about Trust – the loss and its devastating and far-reaching impact. Blair, the infamous serial plagiarist, was caught plagiarizing the works of other reporters. A documentary, A Fragile Trust: Plagiarism, Power, and Jayson Blair at The New York Times, tells the shocking story of how he rocked the entire world of journalism and blemished the reputation of The New York Times (NYT) amid its winning a record seven Pulitzer Prizes for its 9/11 coverage a year earlier.

Trust takes years to build

"Trust is the coin of our realm," NYT reporter and columnist Clyde Haberman said about the scandal. "We trust that people we interview are being straight with us. We trust that our confidential sources are decent folks. We trust that our reporters went to the places they say they went and spoke with the people they say they met. Naturally, trust doesn't mean blind faith... But generally speaking, we are no different from anyone else on this planet: We accept that the people we deal with and work with, are honorable."

Trust takes seconds to break.

"I think of Jayson Blair as an accident that ended my newspaper career in the same unpredictable way that a heart attack or a plane crash might have," Howell Raines, NYT executive editor recalled in his piece in The Atlantic. "It was like stepping on a land mine."

Trust takes forever to repair.

"The Times faulted itself for being 'taken in'..." wrote Margaret Sullivan in the NYT article "Repairing the Credibility Cracks." "Anything that damages credibility – a rogue reporter's lies, a too-trusting attitude toward government sources and the prevailing narrative – has to be guarded energetically. The Times has taken important steps toward that end."

NYT executive editor Jill Abramson said that one of the greatest lessons of the Blair scandal was "how concerned, hurt and angry our readers were because this was contrary to everything we stand for – the trust and authenticity that people attach to The Times."

That NYT scandal was two decades old. Yet, reading a PDI Endy Bayuni's commentary is a déjà vu in PH today.

"Unfortunately, in the migration to the digital world, many media institutions are discarding the principles of good journalism in the competition for clicks and views. When they set speed as the overarching goal, they sacrifice accuracy and fairness, the two chief tenets of journalism... In reclaiming its role as the fourth pillar of democracy, the press must know that its future hinges... on its ability to nurture public trust and support."

TRUST IS THE FOUNDATION

While Trust is a foundation of leadership in the corporate world, moreover, it is the bedrock of relationship in the realm of family and community.

Stephen Covey, author of "Seven Basic Habits of Highly Effective People," uses the Emotional Bank Account (EBA) metaphor to build up an interpersonal relationship. "Deposits" are things we do to increase trust in such relationship as honesty, integrity, and decency, while "withdrawals" are acts that decrease trust like lies, dishonesty, and corruption, among others.


The election campaign period has triggered already not so few EBA "withdrawals" that affect relationships in the family and community.

“Among friends and family, frontal attacks are rare, while deliberate silences are more abundant. But it is also useful to decode the posts that unfold in your newsfeeds, as they contain more general commentaries about the political proclivities of friends and family. And it is here you get to witness the transformation in the political landscape that now extends into your own private cyberspaces – toxic, divided, sad,” wrote The Manila Times columnist Antonio Contreras in his column “Family Ties and Friendships in Peril Because Of Politics.”

Here are moral issues to address and valid questions to ask.

Many years ago, I worked in a manufacturing plant; she, in a bank. After we got married, we started filing our joint income tax returns. Sad to say, our combined withholding taxes would always fall short in our joint income tax due. Out of our civic duty, we paid the difference from our hard-earned savings. We did it yearly until the computerization perfected the system: our combined withholding taxes added up to our required joint income tax --  preserving our hard-earned savings.

Come election, what if I vote for Marcos Jr. who failed to pay his income taxes? Would not such a vote be an EBA “withdrawal” in the eyes of my family, especially my wife that could affect our relationship?

I am an engineer with post-graduate diplomas; my wife, a CPA. During our corporate heydays, we framed and displayed our diplomas and certificates including our kids’ school achievements on our living room wall out of honor and pride in our family’s well and truly earned credentials and accomplishments.

Come election, what if I vote for Marcos Jr. who lied about his education at Oxford University? Would not such a vote be an EBA “withdrawal” in the eyes of my family and the community I belong to that could affect relationships?

In our entire corporate life, out of our personal belief, we never brought home company properties like the seeming harmless bond papers or other company-owned valuable things.

Come election, what if I vote for Marcos Jr. whose family plundered our nation and has never apologized for it? Would not such a vote be an EBA “withdrawal” in the eyes of my family and the community I belong to that could affect relationships?

We built our home and protected our property with secured doors, window grilles, gates, and fences for our family’s safety and security.

Come election, what if I vote for Marcos Jr. who has kowtowed to China that has been pulling apart a huge chunk of our territory making it part of its own, and preventing us from exploring our natural resources? Would not such a vote be an EBA “withdrawal” in the eyes of my family and the community I belong to that could affect relationships?

We are members of a Catholic community who have walked our talks as regards Jesus Christ’s teachings and have offered our talents and resources for uplifting the lives of the poor.

Come election, what if I vote for Marcos Jr. who was endorsed by a Pastor who sexually abused women and minors as alleged by ex-followers and the US prosecutors? Would not such a vote be an EBA “withdrawal” in the eyes of my family and the community I belong to that could affect relationships?

Let me conclude this article with an excerpt from Ma. Ceres P. Doyo’s PDI column “The Unrepentant and the Unforgiving”:

“A silent tsunami is taking over our value system. Something is being reversed and revised little by little. Those who stand for the truth after having labored to find it, or have experienced the brutality and cruelty of it in their lives are to stand aside silently, play humble  and shy so as not to be called hypocrites, holier-than-thou, unforgiving. Yeah, while evildoers strut about with impunity. As if to be upright earn you a badge of shame.”

Nah. Like it or not, our vote will affect (call it cancel culture, curating, consumer’s choice, Newton’s third law of motion, or whatever) our personal relationships after the election.



Monday 14 February 2022

ELECTION SURVEY RESULTS: NEWS OR PROPAGANDA?

 


Marcos Jr. has covered all the bases: election survey results, mainstream news media headlines, and social media echo chambers.

Inquirer: "Marcos Jr. Leads Latest Pulse Asia Survey for Presidential Race"

Philstar: "Pulse Asia: Marcos' Lead Grows..."

Manila Times: "Bongbong, Sara Keep Survey Lead"

Manila Standard: "Sara Leads By A Mile For VP"

Daily Tribune: "BBM, Sara Keep Pole Positions In Surveys"

"Are we supposed to accept the results of the surveys as gospel truth? What if they are wrong?" Sen. Richard Gordon asked in his press release during the 2010 election when he formally filed a case against SWS and Pulse Asia for frequently releasing pre-election survey results at that time, stressing that such surveys had robbed the people of their right to choose their leaders wisely.

The same questions are crucial today: What if these election surveys are wrong? More questions: Do the opinions of only 2,400 people represent the whole opinion of 67 million voters spread throughout the land? Who checks the validity of these surveys? How reliable are they? Does anyone inspect and verify the election survey and the raw data used as bases for its conclusion? Does anyone know who paid for the survey?

As to the last question, Associate Justice of the Supreme Court Leonen, in his decision in the case of Social Weather Stations Inc and Pulse Asia Inc v Commission on Elections [2015] GR No 208062, has resolved that all surveys published must be accompanied by all the information required in Republic Act No. 9006, or the Fair Election Act, including the NAMES OF COMMISSIONERS, PAYORS AND SUBSCRIBERS (underscoring mine).

HEADLINE-GRABBING PROPAGANDA GALORE

Do election survey results, when publicly published and grabbed headlines, shape the voters' preferences, hence, partaking of the nature of election propaganda? Justice Leonen stressed:

"The inclusion of election surveys in the list of items regulated by the Fair Election Act is a recognition that election surveys are not a mere descriptive aggregation of data. Publishing surveys are a means to shape the preference of voters, inform the strategy of campaign machinery, and ultimately, affect the outcome of elections. ELECTION SURVEYS HAVE A SIMILAR NATURE AS ELECTION PROPAGANDA (underscoring mine). They are expensive, normally paid for by those interested in the outcome of elections, and have tremendous consequences on election results."

When a newspaper headlines a survey result, where will the news reportage end and the election propaganda begin?

Dr. Merlin R. Mann, Associate Professor of Journalism of Abilene Christian University wrote:

"[L]et's think like a reader. The readers unfold the newspaper and see what first? The photos, the HEADLINES (underscoring mine)... may be more important than any paragraph in a normal story. Headlines must be accurate: in fact, in implication, in spelling, in grammar."

Dr. Mann listed "must be correct (in fact and implication)" as the top imperative for writing headlines. In the headline writing process, she set up the TACT test: Taste – Attractiveness – Clarity – Truth.

1. Is it in good taste?

2. Does it attract the reader's attention?

3. Does it communicate clearly?

4. IS IT ACCURATE, TRUE? (Underscoring mine)

5. A single "NO" above is a veto.

Do election survey results pass the TACT test: are they accurate, true? I have two sources talking about election surveys from which we may figure out an answer.

"Question can be asked. Answers will be given and transformed into numbers. It's seductive; it looks like science. But we now know definitely that answers to questions about where people obtain their political information are so inaccurate as to be worthless." (Mark Mellman)

"The dirty little secret of... surveys is – they are largely junk science placing marketing objectives of telling and selling a good story, above the practical and ethical objective of telling the truth... Often statistical methods are misused corrupting survey results while providing an air of scientific legitimacy..." (Excerpted from the article "Surveys and Dirty Little Secret; Hidden Distortion, Bias – Illusion of Scientific Validity: Business Beware")

In fact, in the light of the recent polling and survey "black eye" worldwide, including the US 2016 & 2020 elections, uncompromising critics have propounded: a) polling or survey is irrevocably broken, and b) pollsters and polling purveyors should be ignored.

Not here in PH. Surveys have grabbed the national headlines. A free premium election campaign bonanza, Marcos Jr. has bannered such headline-grabbing surveys routinely, reaping steadily the "two strokes of luck"-- the surveys and the headlines – in both Filipino voters believe.

In the US, Real Clear Politics frequently cited by various media organizations, gets its average figure from the top 10 surveys among a horde of pollsters all over the US. For example, in presidential job approval, Real Clear Politics averages all the quality information of Rasmussen, Economist, Reuters, Politico, Gallup, GU Politics, IBD/TIPP, PPP, NPR/PBS/Marist, and NBC/Wall Street Journal, and The Hill. Here in PH, we put our whole eggs in a basket of a handful of pollsters.

While the impact of the above headline-grabbing propaganda galore is on the spot, the repercussion is far-reaching: the bandwagon effect.


BANDWAGON EFFECT

Justice Leonen asserted:

"Election surveys have been critiqued for amplifying the notion of an election as a 'horse race' and for reducing elections to the lowest common denominator of percentage points or a candidate's erstwhile share in the vote market rather than focusing on issues, principles, programs, and platforms.

"[T]here is the bandwagon effect where 'electors rally to support the candidate leading in the polls.' This 'assumes that knowledge of a popular 'tide' will likely change voting intentions in [favor] of the frontrunner, that many electors feel more comfortable supporting a popular choice, or that people accept the perceived collective wisdom of others as being enough reason for supporting a candidate.

"The bandwagon effect is of particular concern because of the observed human tendency to conform. Three mechanisms through which survey results may induce conformity have been posited:

1. Normative social influence or people's desire to adopt the majority position to feel liked and accepted or believe they are on the same winning team;

2. Informational social influence or people learning from the 'wisdom of crowds' via social proof because they 'believe that others' interpretation of an ambiguous situation is more accurate... and will help [them] choose an appropriate course of action; and

3. People resolve cognitive dissonance by switching to the side they infer is going to win based on the poll.

"'Conformity pressures can suppress minority opinion.' The bandwagon effect conjures images of an impregnable majority, thereby tending to push farther toward the peripheries of those who are already marginalized. Worse, the bandwagon effect foments the illusion of a homogeneous monolith denying the very existence of those in the minority.

"Surveys, far from being passive 'snapshot of many viewpoints held by a segment of the population at a given time,' CAN WARP EXISTING PUBLIC OPINION AND CAN MOULD PUBLIC OPINION. They are constitutive. Published election surveys offer valuable insight into public opinion not just because they represent it BUT MORE SO BECAUSE THEY ALSO TEND TO MAKE IT."

ECHO CHAMBERS

The impact on voters' preference of headline-grabbing survey results' is on-the-spot; the bandwagon effect is far-reaching, and the echo chamber is sheltered.

What is an echo chamber? It is a situation in which "beliefs are amplified or reinforced by communication and repetition inside a closed system and insulated in rebuttal." (Wikipedia)

Example: Conduct an election survey. Publish results in news headlines. Gather "pundits." Discuss results. Publish discussion in a news story: "Why Bongbong Up In Surveys? Let Pundits Explain." Pick up by other news outlets. Create a feedback loop. And go on in circles. And so on.

One striking insight by Tony La Viña, a former dean of the Ateneo School of Government caught my eye:

"Through social media, through revisionism of the Marcos legacy, through just constant positive news about [Marcos Jr.] in circles. In limited circles, micro-targeted groups of people have really bypassed the anti-Marcos ecosystem. The anti-Marcos ecosystem did not see this coming."

The gist of such insight is a challenging (or deriding?) message to the opposition taken from the title of a book about the history of Marcos' Crony Capitalism: "Some are smarter than others."



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