BALANCING FOREIGN INVESTMENT & POLITICAL STABILITY

Imagine you are the president of a country that is facing political turmoil, economic challenges, and international scrutiny. How do you balance the need for foreign direct investment (FDI) to boost your economy and the challenge of political instability that may deter such investment? This is the dilemma President Bongbong Marcos Jr. (PBBM) is facing right now.

Sifting through the opinion pages of our local papers for illumination has only led to complications. Take Philstar, for example. Ambassador B. Romualdez column The country is gearing up for more investments runs counter to Ana Pamintuan column Spooking investors.

Quoting PBBM’s economic team, Romualdez asserts, “The Philippines has become a premier investment destination for foreign businesses in Asia.” On the flip side, Pamintuan stresses, “Surely Marcos recognizes that the political turbulence and uncertainty can only spook foreign investors.”

Let’s analyze the dilemma equation.

The left side of the equation – the need for FDI – Pamintuan spelled out:

"Official statistics of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations show that in 2022, Singapore drew more than half of all FDI to ASEAN, amounting to a whopping $141.2 billion. Indonesia came next, accounting for 9.8 percent of total FDI in the region. Vietnam, which drew 7.9 percent, overtook Malaysia (7.6).

“Singapore, Indonesia, and Cambodia registered FDI growth of 7.7, 4.7, and 2.7 percent, respectively, in 2022.

“In contrast, Brunei saw the biggest drop of over 200 percent, followed by Laos (-40.7 percent), Thailand (-26 percent), and the Philippines (-21.8).”

On the other hand, the right side of the equation – the challenge of political instability – Manila Standard Lito Banayo jeers in his column Nakakaloka:

“[O]ur unstable policies that flip and flop with every change of government in our politics-crazy country, is the real reason why these much-needed foreign investors come to say 'hello' and the day after, 'goodbye'.”

To help us get to the bottom of this dilemma, I called upon an “outsider” – an unbiased observer looking through and thinking outside the box – to answer questions from televiewers in our live TV program about this complex topic.

ME Good day everyone! Welcome to PoliTik Talk, your TV show that delves into the hot political topic of the day: PBBM’s dilemma on how to balance the need for foreign investment and the challenge of political instability. Today, we have a special guest who will shed light on such a complex topic. Help me welcome Mr. AI, a geopolitical expert.

MR AI Thank you for having me on your show. I’m looking forward to answering your questions and sharing my insights on your president’s dilemma.

ME Thank you too for joining us, Mr. AI. Let’s start with the basics. Why is foreign direct investment (FDI) important for the country?

MR AI FDI can bring many benefits to the Philippines, such as economic growth, employment, technology transfer, and market expansion. However, FDI can also pose risks and costs, such as crowding out of domestic firms, profit repatriation, environmental degradation, labor exploitation, political interference, and cultural erosion. It is important for the Philippines, but it also requires careful management and regulation.

ME I see. As to our country’s political stability, how does it affect the FDI?

MR AI Political stability is the degree of certainty and predictability of the political system, institutions, policies, and outcomes in a country. [World Justice Project Rule of Law Index: among 142 countries PH ranked 100th, among 15 East Asia & Pacific countries PH ranked 13th w/ Myanmar and Cambodia at rock bottom]. Political stability can affect FDI by increasing the attractiveness and confidence of foreign investors. However, the correlation between FDI and political stability is not constant, and it can vary across different countries, sectors, and periods.

ME Can you give us some examples of countries where FDI has had different effects on political stability?

MR AI Sure. For example, Ghana, Myanmar, and China are three countries that have experienced different effects of FDI on their political stability, depending on the nature, extent, and spillover effects of the investment.

In Ghana, FDI in the mining sector has contributed to economic growth, employment, and social development, while also enhancing the transparency and accountability of the government and the mining companies.

In Myanmar, FDI in the oil and gas sector has been linked to land confiscation, forced displacement, and armed conflict, while also enabling the military regime to resist democratic reforms and suppress civil society.

In China, FDI has played a significant role in the country’s economic transformation, technological upgrading, and global integration, while also posing challenges to the political system, social cohesion, and environmental sustainability.

ME Wow, that’s very interesting. We have a question from our televiewer: What about trade openness? How does it influence the relationship between FDI and political stability?

MR AI Trade openness is the degree to which a country allows the free movement of goods, services, and capital across borders. Trade openness can have positive effects on FDI, as it can enhance the country’s competitiveness, market access, and integration with the global economy. Trade openness can also reduce the political risks and uncertainties that foreign investors face, and thus make them more willing to invest in politically unstable countries.

However, trade openness can also entail costs, such as increased exposure to external shocks, competition, and inequality, which can undermine political stability and social cohesion.

ME How does the Philippines fare in terms of trade openness?

MR AI The Philippines has a moderate level of trade openness [World Bank: among 169 countries PH ranked 96th, among 9 Southeast Asian countries PH ranked 7th with India & Indonesia at rock bottom] which means that it has some barriers and restrictions on trade, such as tariffs, quotas, subsidies, and regulations.

ME Here’s another question from our televiewer: How about corruption? How does it affect the relationship between trade openness and FDI?

MR AI The Philippines has a high level of corruption [2023 Corruption Perception Index: among 180 countries PH ranked 115th, among 10 ASEAN PH ranked 7th with Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar at rock bottom] The Philippines has a serious problem of governance, transparency, and rule of law.

Corruption hurts the country’s economy, society, and politics, as it reduces the efficiency and effectiveness of public services, erodes the trust and confidence of the people, and fuels social discontent and conflict. It creates barriers and distortions in the international trade of goods and services.

ME We have here a question about the International Criminal Court. The President reiterated he is not cooperating with the ICC probe on former President Duterte alleged crime against humanity. How does it affect the President’s thrust in FDI?

MR AI Marcos Jr.’s stance on the ICC may have adverse consequences for his FDI thrust on the world stage. It will deter some foreign investors who value human rights, democracy, and accountability, to invest in the Philippines, hence, affecting the welfare and rights of the Filipino people.

ME Well, thank you very much, Mr. AI, for sharing your insights and expertise on this fascinating and complex topic. I’m sure our viewers have learned a lot from you today. Thank you, everyone, for watching PoliTik Talk, and stay tuned for more political topics of the day. Good day!

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KALYE SURVEYS: HERE THEY COME

 “UP warning vs ‘kalye surveys’ recirculates online” – Philstar

The above headline tells of the warning of the University of the Philippines School of Statistics (UP STAT) against the proliferation of surveys with unclear methodologies circulating online amid the declaration of several personalities of their potential candidates in next year’s elections.

Let’s look at the published results of the monthly senatorial survey conducted by Tangere for February and make sense of the results where Former President Rodrigo Roa Duterte (FPRRD) topped such a survey. Without doubt, such a survey result is at odds with the following headlines:

“More lawmakers reject ex-Pres. Duterte’s secession call” – Inquirer

“Duterte-appointed ex-AFP chief urges Filipinos: Reject calls for Mindanao secession” – Philstar

“53 Mindanawon lawmakers reject secession” – Sun Star

“Lawmakers, ex-Muslim rebels reject Duterte call for secession” – Inquirer

“Legal experts reject Duterte’s call for secession of Mindanao” – ANC

“Bangsamoro government rejects Duterte’s ‘Mindanao republic’ proposal” – ANC

“Duterte allies reject calls for separate Mindanao” – ANC

No less than the native of Mindanao’s Bukidnon province, Senate President Juan Miguel Zubiri said, “I think right now the last thing that we want is for our country to be chaotic and divided.”

SECESSION – NOT THE ANSWER

“We affirm that secession is not the answer to Mindanao’s concern…” Maguindanao del Sur Gov. Bai Mariam Sangki Mangudadatu said. “In the spirit of peace and unity, we turn down any call or movement that aims to destabilize our government and eventually that would divide our nation…”

Even FPRRD’s allies, Sec. Carlito Galvez and Secretary Eduardo Año, his two former cabinet secretaries, strongly opposed the call to separate Mindanao from the rest of the country. “Any attempt to secede any part of the Philippines will be met by the government with resolute force,” Año warned.

Gleaned from the results of the survey against the grain of the headlines, it begs this commonsensical question: why do more than half of those surveyed prefer FPRRD, and would vote for him as a senator in 2025 election, despite his unwanted call for Mindanao secession, and subsequently rejected in all stretches of the political landscape?

Had the “disconnect” something to do with the mindset of the respondents or the methodology of the survey?

UP STAT called out “the pervasive abuse of survey methodologies by some entities doing their brand of research and promoting them on social media.” Though the warning has put its finger on kalye surveys being done by some vloggers and suspicious online outfits (notoriously perceived by their cavalier disregard for the principles of data gathering especially on X and Facebook), the major-league players are not exempted from such a red flag.

Exhibit A.

SWS Survey 1. Second Quarter 2020: 83% of Filipinos said their quality of life has worsened in the last 12 months.

SWS Survey 2. Second Quarter 2021: 77% of Filipinos feel poor including borderline poor.

SWS Survey 3. Fourth Quarter 2021: 75% of Filipinos said they were satisfied with PRRD’s performance.

At a glance, we can figure out surveys 1 & 2 contradict 3.

Exhibit B.

Headline 1: “Women in the Philippines Have Had Enough of PRRD’s Macho’ Leadership” – Time Magazine

“Since taking office in June 2016, the 73-year-old leader has ordered soldiers to shoot female rebels in the vagina, made inappropriate comments about his female Vice President’s legs, joked about raping Miss Universe, and equated having a second wife to keeping a ‘spare tire’ in the trunk of a car.”

Headline 2: “Gabriela blames Duterte’s ‘misogyny’ for ‘culture of rape’ in PNP” -- Inquirer

“[A] Manila police officer allegedly raped the 15-year-old daughter of a drug suspect to clear her father from drug allegations.”

Headlines 1 & 2 fly in the face of Malacañang Palace’s stance: “PRRD was rated ‘excellent’ in… promoting women’s rights…”

UP STAT also called out public relations companies, private individuals, and some media organizations that publish results of surveys with unclear methodologies.

NEWS OR PROPAGANDA?

Amid the 2022 presidential election campaign season, I wrote in my ATABAY article Election Survey Results: News or Propaganda? how Marcos Jr. has covered all the bases: election survey results, social media echo chambers, and the mainstream news media headlines as shown below:

“Marcos Jr. Leads Latest Pulse Asia Survey For Presidential Race” - Inquirer

“Pulse Asia: Marcos’ Lead Grows…” - Philstar

“Bongbong, Sara Keep Survey Lead” - Manila Times

“Sara Leads By A Mile For VP” - Manila Standard

“BBM, Sara Keep Pole Positions In Surveys” - Daily Tribune

“Are we supposed to accept the results of the survey as gospel truth? What if they are wrong?” asked Sen. Richard Gordon in his press conference during the 2010 election when he formally filed a case against SWS and Pulse Asia for frequently releasing pre-election survey results at that time, stressing that such surveys had robbed the people of their right to choose their leaders wisely.

The same questions are crucial today: What if these election surveys are wrong? More questions: Do the opinions of only 2,400 people represent the whole opinion of around 67 million voters spread throughout the land? Who checks the validity of these surveys? How reliable are they? Does anyone inspect and verify the election survey and the raw data as bases for its conclusion? Does anyone know who paid for the survey?

As to the last question, Associate Justice of the Supreme Court Marvic Leonen in his decision in the case of Social Weather Station Inc. and Pulse Asia Inc. v Commission on Election [2015] GR No 208062, has resolved that all surveys published must be accompanied by all the information required in Republic Act No. 9006, or the Fair Election Act, including the NAMES OF COMMISSIONERS, PAYORS, AND SUBSCRIBERS (underscoring mine).

Do election survey results, when publicly published and grabbed headlines, shape the voters’ preference, hence, partaking of the nature of election propaganda? Justice Leonen stressed:

“The inclusion of election surveys in the list of items regulated by the Fair Election Act is a recognition that election surveys are not a mere descriptive aggregation of data. Publishing surveys are a means to shape the preference of voters, inform the strategy of campaign machinery, and ultimately, affect the outcome of elections.

“ELECTION SURVEYS HAVE A SIMILAR NATURE AS ELECTION PROPAGANDA (underscoring mine). They are expensive paid for by those interested in the outcome of elections, and have tremendous consequence on election results.”

Are election survey results accurate? I have two sources from which we may figure out an answer.

“Questions can be asked. Answers will be given and transformed into numbers. It’s seductive; it looks like science. But we now know that answers to questions about where people obtain their political information are so inaccurate as to be worthless.” (Mark Mellman, pollster and political consultant)

DIRTY LITTLE SECRET

“The dirty little secret of… survey is – they are largely junk science placing marketing objectives of telling and selling a good story, above the practical and ethical objective of telling the truth… Often statistical methods are misused, corrupting survey results while providing an air of scientific legitimacy…” (Excerpted from the article Surveys and Dirty Little Secret; Hidden Distortion, Bias Illusion of Scientific Validity)

In light of the polling and survey “black eye” worldwide, including the US 2016 & 2020 elections, uncompromising critics have propounded:

• polling or survey is irrevocably broken
• pollsters and polling purveyors should be ignored

In the US, Real Clear Politics, frequently cited by various media organizations, gets its average figure from the top 10 surveys among a horde of pollsters all over the US.

Here in PH, we put our whole eggs in one basket of a handful of kalye surveys. No wonder film director, screenwriter, and producer Darryl Yap conceded, “We are just stupid… I don’t care, I don’t get offended, I don’t get hurt, when people say, “O, nabudol ka.”

Head collage photos courtesy of Rappler & istockphoto

Video clips courtesy of YouTube

THE BALLAD OF TAYLOR SWIFT & TRAVIS KELCE: A PRESIDENTIAL CONSPIRACY COMEDY

 

“Taylor Swift Conspiracy Theory Is Embraced by Nearly 1 in 5 Americans, Poll Finds” – The New York Times

“Conspiracy theories are like cults without the Kool-Aid.” Sarah Vowell, author

In the annals of bizarre conspiracy theories, there’s one that stands out as a true masterpiece of the absurd: the notion that pop sensation Taylor Swift and NFL star Travis Kelce were roped into a covert government operation to prop up Joe Biden’s re-election bid. Yes, you read it right. In a plot worthy of a Hollywood comedy, Swift and Kelce found themselves unwitting pawns in a game of political intrigue, romance, and outright hilarity.

Imagine the scene: the hallowed halls of the Oval Office, where Swift and Kelce, two individuals who couldn’t be more different, are brought together under the most peculiar circumstances. With President Biden away on a Middle East trip, his re-election campaign manager drops a bombshell, revealing their roles in a scheme that could make or break the future of American politics.

But why Taylor Swift, you ask? And Travis Kelce? What do these seemingly disparate figures have to do with each other, let alone the fate of the presidency? As we delve into the depths of this outlandish conspiracy theory, get ready to be both amused and astounded by the twists and turns of their unlikely journey.

From reluctant partners in a fabricated romance to unwilling players in a high-stakes political game, here’s one version, in the thick of not-so-few versions of such a conspiracy theory, aptly dubbed The Ballad of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce: A Presidential Conspiracy Comedy – a tale that proves truth is indeed stranger than fiction, or the other way around, whatever.

So, buckle up, dear readers, as we embark on a wild ride through the world of presidential politics, pop culture, and downright absurdity that will leave you laughing out loud.

ONE SLICK VERSION 

In the heart of the Oval Office, an unlikely duo found themselves standing awkwardly, unsure of what exactly had brought them together in this prestigious setting. Taylor Swift, the iconic pop star with a penchant for penning love ballads, and Travis Kelce, the rugged and rough-edged NFL tight end, exchanged bewildered glances as they awaited an explanation for their unexpected rendezvous.

As they fidgeted nervously, the door swung open, and in walked the campaign manager for President Biden’s re-election bid, sporting a determined expression that hinted at impending drama. With a flair, he introduced himself and wasted no time in spilling the reason behind their summons to the White House.

“Ms. Swift, Mr. Kelce,” he kick-started, his tone grave yet tinged with a hint of urgency. “You have been selected to play pivotal roles in the upcoming re-election campaign for President Biden.”

The duo exchanged puzzled looks, clearly taken aback by the revelation. Swift, known for her fierce independence and carefully curated image, raised an eyebrow in skepticism. Kelce, more accustomed to tackling opponents on the football field than navigating political intrigue, scratched his head in confusion.

AMERICAN SWEETHEARTS

The campaign manager wasted no time in elaborating on their roles. “You see, to secure victory in the upcoming election, we need to appeal to a broad spectrum of voters. And what better way to do that than by crafting a heartwarming love story between America’s sweethearts, Taylor Swift, and the rugged football hero, Travis Kelce?”

“Ms. Swift, Mr. Kelce, we want you to pretend to be in love,” the manager laid out. “We want you to become the ultimate symbol of hope and unity for the nation. We want you to be President Biden’s secret weapon.”

Swift and Kelce burst out laughing. They thought he was joking, or insane, or both. They couldn’t believe what they were hearing. They looked at him, expecting him to join them in laughter, or to reveal that his was a prank or a hidden camera show.

But the manager was not laughing. He was serious. He looked at the duo with a stern and determined face.

“Ms. Swift, Mr. Kelce, I know this sounds crazy, but trust me, it’s not,” he stressed. “It’s brilliant. It’s genius. It’s the only way to save this country from the mess that Trump left behind. He has a loyal and fanatical base that will vote for him no matter what. We need something to counter his appeal, something that will inspire and unite the people, something that will make them forget about their differences, something that will make them happy and hopeful. And that something is you.”

Swift and Kelce stopped laughing. The manager was serious. They looked at each other with disbelief. They couldn’t believe what they were hearing, or what he was asking them to do.

“You are the perfect match, the ideal couple, the dream team,” the manager asserted. “You have everything that the American people love and admire: talent, beauty, charisma, success, fame, fortune, and influence. You have millions of fans and followers who adore you and trust you. You have the power to sway public opinion and shape the culture. All you have to do is pretend to be in love.”

NOT MY TYPE

Swift’s lips curled into a skeptical smile, while Kelce shifted uncomfortably, clearly unimpressed by the proposal. “But he’s not my type,” Swift protested, her voice laced with disdain.

“And she’s not exactly my cup of tea either,” Kelce chimed in, his tone equally dismissive.

The campaign manager’s expression hardened, his patience wearing thin. “Listen you two. This isn’t a negotiation. It’s an all-or-nothing deal. The White House holds all the cards, and if this plan doesn’t pan out, your careers could go down the drain faster than you can say ‘reputation.’” 

With that ominous warning hanging in the air, Swift and Kelce exchanged resigned glances, realizing they had little choice but to play along with the scheme.

The next day, Kelce made a guest appearance on his brother’s podcast, spinning a fantastical tale of a chance encounter with Swift at one of her legendary concerts. With a twinkle in his eye and a hint of mischief in his voice, he regaled listeners with a romanticized rendition of their first meeting, conveniently glossing over the awkwardness and skepticism that had initially colored their interaction.

Against all odds, the unlikely duo plunged into a whirlwind romance, their fabricated love story capturing the heart of the American nation. As President Biden has been paving the way to his re-election, Swift and Kelce found themselves unwittingly entwined in a tale as wild and unpredictable as any of Swift’s chart-topping hits.

SHAKE IT OFF

And so, dear readers, we’ve reached the end of our wild journey through the halls of power, where political intrigue collided with pop culture in the most unexpected of ways.

Let’s raise a toast to Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce, the unwitting stars of our presidential comedy. As Swift herself once sang in her chart-topping hit Shake It Off: 'Cause the players gonna play, play, play, play, play / And the haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate. And indeed, in the face of adversity and absurdity alike, our intrepid duo shook off the skeptics and danced to the beat of their drum.

As we close the curtain on this fanciful tale, let’s remember to embrace the laughter, the whimsy, and the glee in a world as unpredictable as ours. After all, sometimes all we can do is sit back, relax, get the popcorn ready, and enjoy the show.

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Head photo courtesy of Women's Health

Video clips courtesy of You Tube

PUTIN, DUTERTE, & HEROD: THE PERILS OF POWER AND PARANOIA

 

The fiercest foe of President Vladimir Putin, 47-year old Alexie Navalny, who crusaded against official corruption and staged anti-Kremlin protests, died recently in the Arctic penal colony, where he was serving a 19-year sentence.

Navalny's death has sent shockwaves throughout the world and leaders have reacted with shock and sadness. US President Joe Biden has laid blame on Putin saying that regardless of the details still to come, "Make no mistake: Putin is responsible," while Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that "it's something that has the entire world being reminded of exactly what a monster Putin is."

Navalny's wife, Yulia Navalnaya, urged the international community to fight against Putin's "horrific" regime.

"I would like to call upon all the international community -- all the people in the world. We should come together, and we should fight against this evil. We should fight against this horrific regime in Russia today. This regime, and Vladimir Putin, should be personally held responsible for all the atrocities that they have committed in our country."

Meanwhile, Russians have risked detention in Moscow and elsewhere across the country attending rallies and vigils in Navalny's honor which resulted in at least 100 people having been detained across Russia for attending vigils and rallies following Navalny's death.

CNN Nick Paton Walsh's analysis of Navalny's death is thought-provoking as excerpted below:

"Navalny's death is a reminder of Putin's paranoia. He does not seem able to tolerate the risk of having his most outspoken opponent alive. Russia's prisons, it is fair to argue, could have easily kept him safe and healthy indefinitely, that was their mandated task. We do not have full transparency of their involvement, but this is not a Kremlin unafraid of the future."

Reading about Putin today reminds me of the public declaration of former President Rodrigo Duterte: "My favorite hero is Putin." No other words could spotlight the character bond between Putin and Duterte much firmer than such a public declaration. As the old saying goes, "birds of the same feather flock together" -- going as deep as the innermost recesses of the soul -- Fear.

Just as CNN reporter Walsh delved into Putin's paranoia, so too Antonio Lascañas, confessed ex-DDS hitman, spelled out Duterte as "matakutin," like two peas in a pod, in his one-on-one interview with Christian V. Esguerra's Facts First.

"Sa pagkakilala ko sa kay [Duterte] personally, for more than 20 years... matakutin siya," Lascañas said.

Like Putin, Duterte "does not seem able to tolerate the risk of having his most outspoken opponent alive." Let's take former Leila de Lima as Exhibit A with Lascañas' narrative:

"Ang unang plano talaga... ipa-ambush si Commissioner Leila de Lima. Pero dito pumalag si SPO4 Ben Laud, kasi ayaw niya yong planong ambushin si Commissioner  sa loob mismo ng Laud quarry... dahil walang ibang pagbintangan kung may mangyari kay Commissioner, segurado si Mayor...

"Nagproposed itong si SPO4 Sonny Buenaventura na ipa-sharpshoot na lang si Commissioner at all costs... Hindi ito nangyari. Yong plano natuloy. Ang pag-implement lang sa plano ang nagkaroon ito ng problema, dahil yong supposed to be gunman na appointed ni Buenaventura approved naman ni Mayor Duterte, isa itong private person. Hindi ko lang pangalanan. Kilalang-kilala ito sa Davao City within the business circle...

"Pero nahirapan siya i-deliver ang mission niya kay Commissioner, dahil unang-una mahigpit ang seguridad sa mga area na inabangan sila. I think sa Waterfront Insular Hotel isa rin yan sa mga area, at saka ang daming puno doon na medyo naka-block sa shooter. So hindi ito natuloy. Nakalabas si Commissioner na safe sa Davao City."

Let's take former Senator Antonio Trillanes as Exhibit B with Lascañas' narrative:

"Ganito po ang plano. Ipasok ako ni Mayor sa Bureau of Customs kasi isa ako nag-crop up sa plano na kung patayin si Senator Antonio Trillanes through sa isang sharpshooter walang ibang pagbintangan, si Mayor.

"So nag-crop up kami ng plano kasama ko si Buenaventura at Mayor Duterte at that time. Tatlo lang kami... Isa ako sa nag-suggest na banggain ang sasakyan ni Senator Trillanes ng isang 10-wheeler or 20-wheeler truck somewhere in Metro Manila.

"Pumayag dito si Mayor Duterte.

"Na-cool off ito... Hindi natuloy ang planong banggain yong sasakyan ni Senator Trillanes para lalabas lang na isang aksidente ang pagkakapatay sa kanya."

In contrast to Nalvany's fate, De Lima and Trillanes seem to be more fortunate, all the more, as against the thousands of EJK victims.

Amid the Lenten celebration, the above modern-day saga finds an uncanny parallel in the Biblical account of Herod the Great and the birth of Jesus. Herod, the ruler of Judea, was renowned for his paranoia and ruthlessness.

When he heard of the prophecy of a newborn king who would challenge his reign, Herod's fear knew no bounds. In a desperate attempt to maintain his grip on power, Herod ordered the massacre of innocent infants in Bethlehem, hoping to eliminate any personal threat to his rule.

However, his efforts were futile, as Jesus emerged as a symbol of hope and liberation, transcending the oppressive forces of time.

In both eras, we witness the tragic consequences of unchecked power coupled with deep-seated insecurity. Putin, Duterte, and Herod, despite their position of authority, succumbed to fear and paranoia, resorting to oppression and killing to safeguard their rule. Yet, in their ruthless pursuit of control, they only succeeded in perpetuating a cycle of injustice and suffering.

These parallel examples serve as a stark reminder of the dangers inherent in concentrated power and the fragility of the human ego. They compel us to reflect on the nature of leadership, accountability, and responsibility that comes with wielding authority. Moreover, they underscore the enduring relevance of age-old narratives in understanding contemporary socio-political dynamics.

The tales of Putin, Duterte, and Herod, offer valuable insights into the complexities of power and the human condition. They remind us that true strength lies not in domination and oppression, but in humility, empathy, and the willingness to confront our insecurities.

Interestingly, before his death, Alexie Navalny quoted Edmund Burke: "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good people to do nothing." In like manner, Ninoy Aquino quoted Mahatma Gandhi: "The willing sacrifice of the innocent is the most powerful answer to insolent tyranny that has yet been conceived by God and man."

Both men uttered striking farewell.

Navalny: "My message for the situation when I am killed is very simple: not give up."

Aquino: (smiling) "If I'm killed, I'll be with Jesus."

Is there a common thread weaving through the fallouts of the two men's deaths?

God only knows.

Head collage photos courtesy of gettyimages

Video clips courtesy of YouTube

WHEN ROMANCE MEETS TEMPTATION: A VALENTINE'S DAY ON ASH WEDNESDAY

 

Hello, fellow romantics and soulmates!

With Valentine's Day just touched down, romance is undoubtedly in the air. But hold onto your heart-shaped chocolates, because this year, Cupid's arrow isn't the only thing on the horizon. In a rare celestial twist, February 14th marks not only the celebration of love but the solemn beginning of Lent with Ash Wednesday.

Yep, heard it right! For the first time since 2018, these two seemingly disparate occasions are converging once again, promising a unique blend of romance and temptation.

Valentine's Day, a holiday originated as a Christian feast day honoring a martyr named Valentine, has evolved, over time, into a celebration of romance and love. On the other hand, Ash Wednesday begins the 40 days of Lent in Christendom, a time when we remember that Jesus Christ spent 40 days in the desert growing hungry from fasting and facing temptation.

And guess what? This cosmic alignment isn't just a one-off occurrence, it's a phenomenon that's only happened a handful of times in the last century, with the next rendezvous set for 2029.

So, what's the deal with this intriguing overlap? Well, buckle up, because, in this article, we're diving headfirst into the essence of Valentine's romance alongside the age-old temptation in Ash Wednesday's solemn observance. Get ready to navigate the delicate dance between romance and temptation as we unravel the mysteries of this rare cosmic rendezvous with an episode in the life of Dave.

Dave sat at his desk, the glow of the computer screen casting shadows across his tired face. Another long day at the office was coming to an end, and he couldn't wait to get home to his wife and son. As he packed up his belongings, Lucy, his attractive secretary, approached him with a smile.

"Hey Dave," she said, turning a lock of her hair flirtatiously. "I was thinking since it's Friday, why don't we grab dinner tonight? You know, to celebrate the end of the week?"

Dave's heart skipped a beat. He was happily married, and he had never given Lucy any reason to think otherwise. But there was something about her invitation that made him feel uneasy.

"Um, I don't know, Lucy," he stammered trying to find an excuse. "I should really get home to my wife and son."

Lucy's smile faltered for a moment, but then she leaned in closer, her perfume filling Dave's senses. "Oh, come on, Dave," she whispered. "It'll just be a friendly dinner. Nothing more."

Dave hesitated feeling the pull of temptation tugging at his conscience.

But just as he was about to give in, his phone chimed with a message. It was from his seven-year-old son, Eli.

"Dad, what's the silliest thing that happened to you at work today? Tell me all about it! Guess what? I learned a magic trick today! Can I show it to you when you get home?"

Dave's heart melted at his son's words. He remembered the promise he had made to always be there for Eli, to be a good role model and father. With a newfound resolve, he typed out a quick reply to his son, assuring him that he would be home soon.

As he looked up from his phone, he saw Lucy waiting expectantly for his answer. But instead of agreeing to dinner, Dave shook his head with a smile.

"I'm sorry Lucy," he said firmly. "But I have plans tonight. Maybe some other time."

Lucy's disappointment was evident, but Dave didn't dwell on it. He quickly made his way to the parking lot, his heart lighter knowing that he had made the right decision.

As he started his car and pulled out of the parking lot, he glanced in his rearview mirror and saw Lucy getting into her own car. For a moment, he felt a twinge of guilt, wondering if he had hurt her feelings. But then he remembered his son's message and the promise he had made to his family.

With a smile, Dave drove off into the night, grateful for the love and support of his wife and son. As he made his way home, he couldn't wait to hear all about Eli's magic trick and share the stories of his day at work. For in that moment, he knew that no temptation was irresistible, as long as he had his family by his side -- and, of course, perhaps, unknown to him -- God's promise put into the following words in the Bible:

But remember this -- the wrong desires that come into your life aren't anything new and different. Many others have faced exactly the same problems before you. And no temptation is irresistible. You can trust God to keep the temptation from becoming so strong that you can't stand up against it, for he has promised this and will do what he says. He will show you how to escape temptation's power so that you can bear up patiently against it. (1 Cor 10:13)

It's not always a happy ending, though, sad to say.

In my past ATABAY article What Do I See?, I delved into a 2002 film Unfaithful. It tells the story of a couple, played by Richard Gere and Diane Lane, whose marriage goes dangerously awry when the seemingly content wife and mother stumbles into a haphazard encounter with an enigmatic stranger, played by Olivier Martinez.

I watched the full movie many years ago and what caught my eye was this scene: just before the wife went up to the stranger's apartment, an available taxi passed by. She saw but ignored it. Hailing the taxi could have made the difference -- that could have been their first and last encounter -- she could have not gotten the book given to her by the stranger where she could find his phone numbers.

The consequence at the end of the film was grim. The husband, fueled by rage and despair, confronts her lover after discovering the truth about her infidelity. In a moment of heated passion, tragedy strikes. Her lover meets an untimely end at her husband's hands.

What I see is a God-sent taxi to give the wife the last chance to escape the temptation. As another version of the same Bible passage goes:

God is faithful; He will not let you be tempted beyond what you can bear. But when you are tempted, He will also provide A WAY OUT so that you can endure it. (Emphasis mine)

 

As Dave sat at his desk, the weight of Lucy's resignation letter heavy in his hands, he couldn't shake the feeling of unease. Had he inadvertently driven her away with his refusal to indulge in temptation? The office felt emptier without her presence, and Dave couldn't help but wonder if he had made the right decision.

But just as doubt threatened to consume him, his phone lit up with a message from Eli: "Dad, can you teach me how to whistle using two fingers? It's urgent!" He smiled. Amid the chaos of his thoughts, Dave found solace in Eli's voice.

And as he tucked away Lucy's letter, he couldn't help but feel grateful for the reminder that life's treasure were found not in the dance of romance and temptation, but in the love and laughter of family.

Content put together in collaboration with ChatGPT

Head photo courtesy of Aleteia 

Video clips courtesy of YouTube

UNITEAM BREAKUP: 31 MILLION (?) HEARTBREAKS

 

February dons its velvet cloak, adorned with Cupid’s arrows, yet whispers tales of heartbreaks. Imagine, if you will, a grandiose victory ball – the ambience thick with celebration by the crowd of socialites, billionaires, and nobles singing Umagang Kay Ganda, the chandeliers casting a golden glow upon faces on cloud nine at the dance floor below.

In this glittering soiree, love pirouettes with grace, but heartbreak, oh heartbreak, waltzes with a tempest’s disgust. It wears a tattered gown, its hem trailing through memories of tear-streaked vlogs and shattered P20 per kilo promises. As violins weep, heartbreak twirls, leaving splintered shards of unity in its wake.

Darryl Yap is a credible exemplar, I presume, for the 31 million Pinoys who voted for Bongbong Marcos last presidential election and have been coming to grips with heartbreak these days shaken by the breakup of the UniTeam.

Yap, a UnitTeam top promoter, is the writer and director of the controversial film Maid in Malacañang. Wikipedia chronicled: “Upon release, the film received a generally negative reception, with certain scenes garnering much controversy over misrepresentations or lies as well as reviews criticizing Yap’s direction and screenplay, production, acting cinematography, and pacing.”

HEARTBREAK KID

Surfing the internet, I stumbled upon a YouTube video clip where Yap was opening his heart, bringing out into the open his heartbreak which I transcribed and excerpted below:

“We are just stupid. I’m sorry. You know it took a while I’ve been processing all of this… gaano kahirap sa akin para aminin. But, thank God, if you view my wall, ni isang ‘Vote for Bongbong’ wala. Pero, that’s not an excuse. We helped him. Ayaw mang tanggapin ng asawa niya, o kahit sinong Pontius Pilato ang nakapaligid sa kanya, what we did… helped a lot.

“So, nasa kunsyinsia ko yon. Kayo naman ipinagtatanggol nyo sya sa TikTok and everything… we are guilty… tayo ang mas galit… ang hirap ipagmalaki ng pagtatanggol ang pagbibigay ng alibi, pagbibigay ng rason… Sobrang disgusted ako. I don’t want to use disappointed because I am not expecting anything…

“I don’t care, I don’t get offended, I don’t get hurt, when people say, “O, natanga ka, nabudol ka” and all…

“We are all part to be blamed… even though we were given his background, alam kong hindi madaling maka-alpas doon sa mga sisihan and all. But, you know, even the second highest person in the country, naluko din sya… tayo we can feel it over and over again, but if we try to make sisi ourselves or other people, we can’t find the solution…

“I’m correcting my series with another series. I don’t know how to cope. Honestly, this is more than a heartbreak. This is really a sad moment in my life. I studied the Philippines, I studied somewhere, I achieved these things, and my IQ is this high. Pero, still…”

Golly. That’s a bonanza of letting the cat out of the bag. Sure enough, and for the better, Yap has already come out on top of quite a few stages in healing his heartbreak: from shock and denial, pain and guilt, anger, depression, and then acceptance. His reconstruction stage is now a work in progress where, in his words, he is “correcting” his “missteps.” That’s cool.

I put a question mark after 31 MILLION in the title of this article for two reasons:

First, other than the four of them, Yap and company in the YouTube video clip, I am not sure if the rest of the 31 million have been burdened by the same severity of heartbreak which Yap had gotten off his chest. Even more so, I am clueless about the varied restorative stages of such a heartbreak the rest of the 31 million have been presently going through.

IP 192.168.0.2 REVISIT

Second, the 31-million-figure still hangs around as fantastic.  I am in the dark about the latest on the Rio and company’s “preponderance of evidence” showing that the May 9, 2022 election was rigged. So far, my modest inkling on, in the words of Rio and company’s words, “the biggest scam in our electoral history” is way back when Philstar Jarius Bondoc spotlighted the use of an “illegal” IP address 192.168.0.2 while Inquirer Randy David, accenting the lightning speed of the counting, has kept alive the “lingering doubts about the 2022 election.”

The recent UniTeam breakup appears to have reignited attention to Rio and company’s issue as Philstar Ana Marie Pamintuan asserts:

“Non-partisan cyber experts must work together to decisively address this IP issue before it becomes the norm and destroys free elections in our weak republic. This is a cause that even the Dutertes will not take up despite their war with the Marcos-Romualdez clan because it also questions the legitimacy of the victory of Vice President Sara Duterte.”

Looking back, President Bongbong Marcos (PBBM) unburdened that the long wait during his family’s exile was a painful time and later laid bare that he entered politics for his family’s “survival” and to preserve his father’s legacy.

Oddly enough, as the son of the former dictator who plundered the country, PBBM’s election triggered the question “What is wrong with the Philippines?” on the world stage coupled with the recent breakup of his UniTeam that, out of belated awakening, has stirred up a ton of heartbreaks, crying out for the “survival” of Pinoy’s sense of worth and the preservation of the Philippines’ image in the eyes of the world.

WHAT’S RIGHT WITH PINOYS

It conjures up an image of the election as a snake bite whose venom has spread around the whole system of the body. The only antidote is Rio and company’s solution. In my past ATABAY article What’s Right With Pinoys I wrote:

Have you ever wondered that this rigged 2022 election exposé by the TNT Trio [Rio and company] may be a blessing in disguise to Pinoys and the Philippines? Maybe, the TNT Trio are heaven-sent instrument and the exposé is a wake-up call on a platter, as a gift dropped from the sky, to pave the way for the rare opportunity to reveal the truth about the “scam”, busting a smorgasbord of political myths and concocted theories bandied about by a bunch of pundits in opinion pages, thus, bringing about the transfiguration of Pinoys’ long-suffering despondent image from “suckers” to “busters” in the eyes of the world.

The TNT Trio’s claim of the rigged 2022 election is not only a legal battle, but also a moral crusade. It is not only a matter of justice, but also a matter of dignity. It is not only a test of our institutions, but also a test of our character.

It is not only a question of what’s wrong with the Philippines, but also a question of what’s right with us, Pinoys.

In the fullness of time, as Darryl Yap has been pressing ahead, here’s hoping for the Pinoy persona to bounce back, and be viewed, not as a “heartbreak,” but a “comeback” kid in the eyes of the world.

Head photo courtesy of pixabay

Video clips courtesy of YouTube

A TALE OF TWO-HEADED JUGGERNAUT: UNITEAM CAME TO NAUGHT

 

Prologue

Once upon a time in a land where politics reigned supreme, there came about a legendary juggernaut with not one, but two heads. Together, they formed an unstoppable force, their unity striking fear into the hearts of the opposition.

United by a mutual desire for power and dominance, their unified force knew no bounds as they swept through the political landscape, crushing all rivals with their sheer might.

But as the juggernaut grew more grandiose, cracks began to form beneath its imposing façade. The two heads, once unified in purpose, now found themselves locked in a bitter clash for supremacy. Each head hungered for sole control, blinded by the allure of absolute power and consumed by greed.

At first, their rivalry simmered beneath the surface, disguised from the public eye. But as tensions mounted and ambitions collided, the once-unbreakable bond between them began to erode. Their supporters watched in dismay as the unity that had once propelled them to grandness now threatened to tear them apart.

The battle for dominance raged on, escalating into a vicious cycle of betrayal and deceit. Promises were broken, alliances shattered, and ultimately, the juggernaut imploded upon itself. The once-mighty force that had commanded fear now lay wasted, messed up by the very greed and ambition that had powered up its rise.

In the aftermath of such an implosion, the nation lay scarred and divided, a testament to the folly of reckless initiative and the pitfall of go-as-you-please clout.

Former Chief Justice Artemio V. Panganiban bannered his Inquirer column The Bongbong Sara Juggernaut. In the same way, I referred to the duo as Goliath in my past ATABAY article Leni vs Marcos-Duterte: A Modern David and Goliath Fight. (Interestingly, that article fired up a political “war of words” among commenters, drawing a political line on the sand among readers, even between friends and peers.)

HORRIFYING TOKHANG

Inquirer columnist Joel Ruiz Butuyan wrote about the juggernaut’s twin heads coming to blows with each other -- a spectacle deemed to be “horrifying” even by their supporters.

 “Horrifying” is an apt word. Philstar Ana Marie Pamintuan made it plain in her column Tokhang brains? which I am excerpting below:

“[A] former Davao City cop told journalists in a videoconference that Sara Duterte, when she was mayor of Davao City, was in fact the brain behind Oplan Tokhang in 2012.

“Arturo Lascañas, who claims to have served as the lead hitman in the Davao Death Squad, said then-mayor Sara had ordered Ronald de la Rosa, at the time the police chief of Davao City, to implement Tokhang while her brother Paolo Duterte was running a drug smuggling ring. Lascañas alleged that he gave ‘Pulong’ Duterte and Dela Rosa a weekly payola of P150,000 and P50,000, respectively.

“Targets for execution, Lascañas alleged, were trailed through their home addresses and vehicle details provided by the local chief of the Land Transportation Office, who followed the orders of Rodrigo Duterte’s loyal aid-turned-senator Bong Go.”

The following facts back up the three paragraphs above to be “horrifying.”

1.    “President Rodrigo Duterte has made no secret of how he views people linked to drugs or crime; for him, they are less than human and deserving of death… Statistics from the Philippine National Police indicate that police officers and unknown armed persons collectively carried out 7,025 drug-related killings between 1 July 2016 and 21 January 2017, roughly an average of 34 per day.” (Amnesty International)

2.    “[O]fficial police figures have acknowledged just 8,000 “drug personalities” who were slain in official police operations, though rights groups say the actual death toll may be as high as 30,000 since Duterte’s “war” began in 2016.” (Philstar January 28, 2021 issue)

3.    Beyond the Numbers, a study by The Initiatives for Dialogue and Empowerment through Alternative Legal Services, Inc., or IDEALS, found that all cases involved blue-collared workers, with a majority of them working as construction workers or carpenters. Ninety-nine percent of the victims never finished tertiary education. Kian, one of the young and poor victims, begged the police for his life because of his school test the next day. As the catch line of the Amnesty International report goes: “If you are poor, you are killed.”

4.    Five names mentioned are presently prominent public figures: Former President Rodrigo Duterte, Vice-President Sara Duterte, Congressman Paulo Duterte, Senator Ronald dela Rosa, and Senator Bong Go.

Adding Mayor Sebastian Duterte to the bunch, they make up a specimen of the so-called political dynasties, which according to Jarius Bondoc in his Philstar column How fragile a state is the Philippines? comprise 75 percent of legislators, 85 percent of governors, and 67 percent of mayors reigning our country today.

Sad to say, Pinoys voted all of them into the office – a key in answering the burning question: How did we get into this mess? Let me give it my best shot.

JUAN TAMAD

Looking back, amid the fiery and divisive presidential election campaign season, I wrote an ATABAY article Juan Tamad Within Us May Elect Our Next President where I delved into the book, Thinking Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize in Economics laureate. Kahneman laid out two systems in our minds. One is “thinking fast” which we do hastily without effort. The other is “thinking slow” which we do with so much effort. Juan Tamad illustrates a “thinking fast” persona. Dr. M. Scott Peck, author of the The Road Less Traveled, explains why:

“Thinking [slow] is difficult… complex… process with a course or direction, a lapse of time, and a series of steps or stages that lead to some result. To think well is a laborious, often painstaking process until one becomes accustomed to being thoughtful.

“[L]aziness. It is very real. It exists in every one of us – infants, children, adolescents, mature adults, the elderly, the wise or the stupid… Some of us may be less lazy than others…”

Imagine what will come out of the mind of Juan Tamad if he dives into the sea of disinformation amid a fiery and divisive election.

In my past ATABAY article Taiwan 2024 & Philippines 2016: A Tale Of Two Elections, I spelled out the following two striking turns of events:

In the 2024 Taiwan election, China pulled out all the stops to thwart presidential candidate Lai Chen-te, the “troublemaker,” but it fizzled out.

In the 2016 Philippine election, China made the same all-out effort to prop up presidential candidate Rodrigo Duterte, the “appeaser,” and it prevailed.

Confirming the second fact, former foreign secretary Albert del Rosario exposed that senior Chinese officials had grandstanded about their impact on the 2016 Philippine elections where he says:

“On February 22, 2019, we received information from a most reliable international entity that high officials from China are bragging that they had been able to influence the 2016 Philippine elections so that Duterte would be president.”

The two facts above beg this thought-provoking question: How come the Taiwanese made it, but Pinoys didn’t? Was Juan Tamad the culprit?

WARNING

Let’s go back to the word “horrifying.” Rigoberto D. Tiglao had this lead paragraph in his column in The Manila Times:

“The dubious outfit Pirma (People’s Initiative for Reform Modernization and Action) with the staffs of certain members of the House of Representatives was set to tap into at least P5 billion of government funds intended for poverty alleviation projects to bribe people into signing the proposal to change the Constitution, which would have given the Lower House of Congress uncontested authority to alter our basic law.”

Is this the answer to the nagging question of why President Bongbong Marcos (PBBM) appointed Larry Gadon as his Presidential Adviser for Poverty Alleviation – notwithstanding Gadon is a disbarred lawyer and in the face of a projected PBBM’s phony optics?

Epilogue

Judas Iscariot in the Bible is notorious for betraying Jesus for 30 pieces of silver. Yet, in one instance, he remarked, “This perfume could have been sold for three hundred silver coins and turned over to the poor.” (John 12:5)

Having one’s finger in the poor man’s pie (at least P5 billion of government funds intended for the poor to bribe people) is worse than being a Judas.

What is “horrifying” is not only such a predatory act but God’s act for those who steal from the poor. Here’s a warning:

“Don’t rob the poor and sick. For the Lord is their defender. If you injure them, He will punish you.” Proverbs 22:22-23

Head collage photos courtesy of Facebook, Medium, NPR, Shutterstock, Free Grace International, & Lazada Philippines

Video clips courtesy of YouTube