HEALTHCARE OR WEALTHCARE? PHARMA GREED FROM INSYS TO BELL-KENZ

 

In the quiet town of Chandler, Arizona, a storm was brewing – one that would ripple across the U.S., leaving a trail of devastation in its wake. It began with a company named Insys Therapeutics, founded in the late 1990s with the noble intention of developing pharmaceuticals to address the unmet needs of patients. However, beneath the veneer of medical advancement, a malignant scheme was taking root.

The year was 2012, and Insys had just launched Subsys, a potent opioid painkiller intended for cancer patients writhing in the throes of unbearable agony. This drug, a sublingual spray of fentanyl, was a hundred times more powerful than morphine. It promised relief but only to a niche segment of the suffering – a caveat that would soon become the crux of a scandal.

John Kapoor, the founder of Insys, was a man of ambition. He envisioned Subsys as the linchpin of his company’s success. But ambition can be a double-edged sword, and in the pursuit of profit, lines were crossed. The company devised an insidious scheme: to bribe doctors to prescribe Subsys, often to patients who didn’t need it, and to deceive insurers into paying for it.

The scheme was as simple as it was illegal. Sales representatives, armed with charm and false promises, became regulars at doctors’ offices, peddling Subsys under the guise of care. They wined and dined with doctors, flattered them with speaking fees, and lined their pockets with cash. In return, these doctors, swayed by greed or naivety, began to write prescriptions. Lots of them.

Insys Unraveled

As the prescription flowed, so did the money, and for a while, it seemed like Insys’s scheme was foolproof. But as the opioid epidemic surged, claiming lives and shattering families, the spotlight turned to the makers and marketers of these powerful drugs. Investigations were launched, and the truth began to unravel.

The fall was swift. Insys executives, including Kapoor, were arrested and charged with racketeering, conspiracy, and fraud. Trials ensued, revealing the extent of the corruption. In 2019, Kapoor and his cohorts were found guilty. The message was clear: the law will come for those who place profit over patients.

The Insys case became a landmark moment in the U.S. pharmaceutical industry, a stark reminder of the ethical responsibilities that come with the power to heal. It was a tale of greed, betrayal, and the loss of moral compass, but also a tale of justice served – a narrative that would resonate with anyone who believes in the sanctity of life and the duty to care.

Back to PH, we turn our gaze to the unfolding Bell-Kenz exposé and be forewarned of the lessons of the past as our guiding lights of the present. Insys and Bell-Kenz weave a tale of deceit, where the very hands entrusted to heal have been sullied by the allure of profit. The echoes of Insys’s downfall must serve as a warning and a call to action, pressing us to remain vigilant and steadfast in our pursuit of integrity in health care. 

Delving into the murky waters of these scandals, we draw parallels, revealing pivotal lessons, and shedding light on a lesser-known plight affecting the elderly.

Bell-Kenz Exposed

Sending shockwaves through the nation, the Bell-Kenz Pharma Inc. exposé tells of a group of doctors who own Bell-Kenz. Sen. Estrada disclosed in his privilege speech that Bell-Kenz has been giving rebates of up to P2 million, luxury cars, travel, and other perks to doctors who prescribe the Bell-Kenz medicines – ranging from anti-hypertensive and anti-diabetic to antibiotics and health supplements.

What’s the modus operandi? Sen. Estrada said that Bell-Kenz Pharma Inc., a name synonymous with the controversy, “shamelessly recruits doctors, enticing them with promises of exorbitant commissions and lavish incentives in exchange for prescribing their medicines. It’s a blatant violation of their ethical principles, betrayal of trust bestowed upon them by their patients, and a flagrant disregard for the sacredness of their profession.”

Serving now as a cautionary tale to our government, Insys’s aggressive promotion of the opioid Subsys through bribes to doctors, resulted in convictions and a clarion call for change within the U.S. pharmaceutical industry. The repercussions were felt far and wide, leading to increased scrutiny and regulatory reforms.

Oddly enough, the parallels between Bell-Kenz and Insys are uncanny. Both companies exploited the influence of doctors to boost sales -- compromising ethical standards. The consequent conflicts of interest have tainted the doctor-patient relationship, highlighting the vulnerability of patients in the face of corporate machinations.

From these scandals emerge lessons of transparency and accountability. They underscore the need for ethical prescribing of medicine and the vital enforcement of marketing regulations. The healthcare industry is reminded that its primary duty is to the patient, not to profit margins.

Beyond The Surface

The Prescription Requirement Issue. Amid the Bell-Kenz uproar, a subtler issue is simmering. Despite FDA Advisory No. 2014-054, which states that over-the-counter medicines, including vitamins and food supplements, do not require a doctor’s prescription for seniors to avail discounts, the reality on the ground is different as shown by the following story I cited in my past ATABAY article Aging With Grace: Charting A Path To Golden Years:

“I’m a senior and I have good news and bad news. The good news: I’m glad to read the FDA Advisory No. 2014-054 dated 07 July 2014 which states:

‘The public is further informed that a DOCTOR’S PRESCRIPTION IS NOT REQUIRED FOR OVER-THE-COUNTER MEDICINES TO AVAIL OF THE 20% DISCOUNT.’ [emphasis mine]

“I’m glad to read the Inquirer reported last March 1, 2024, as follows:

‘Senior citizens do not need to present a prescription from their physicians to get the mandated 20-percent discount they are entitled to when buying over-the-counter (OTC) medicines, INCLUDING VITAMINS AND FOOD SUPPLEMENTS [emphasis mine], according to the Food and Drug Administration.’

“Here’s the bad news. A few days ago, I went to two different national drugstore branches to buy my vitamins C and B. Both drug stores asked me for the doctor’s prescription. I told them about the law. Both told me they hadn’t received any instruction from their main office. A case of management inefficiency? Or an excuse.”

This flouting hints at a deeper problem, potentially pointing to a system where doctors’ prescriptions are more than just a gateway to health -- but a tool for financial gain.

Our government must address the core issues by taking action -- reinforcing the advisory and ensuring compliance to protect the rights of seniors while upholding the law. The Bell-Kenz case could be the catalyst for a broader reform, one that ensures ethical drug distribution and prescription.

The Bell-Kenz exposé, with its echoes of the Insys scandal, serves stark reminder of the perils of unchecked pharmaceutical marketing practices. It is a call to action for our government and regulatory bodies to fortify the defenses of medical ethics. As we unravel the threads of these scandals, we find a common fabric of exploitation and deceit. It is time to restore trust in our healthcare system ensuring that the welfare of patients remains at the heart of medicine.

Content put together in collaboration with Microsoft Bing AI-powered Co-pilot

Head collage photos courtesy of Inquirer & Facebook

Video clips courtesy of YouTube

BEYOND BELIEF: THE HIGH-RISK CROSSING OF POLITICS & DEEPFAKES

 

Imagine this: you’re casually scrolling through YouTube, sipping on your coffee, when suddenly, there he is – President Barack Obama, delivering one of his signature speeches. But hold it, something doesn’t quite add up.

As you listen to him drop bombshells like “President Trump is a total and complete dipshit,” you started to feel a little uneasy. And then it hits you like a ton of bricks: this isn’t the real deal. Nope, you’ve just stumbled upon a deep fake, a sneaky bit of tech that can make anyone say anything, even if they never uttered a word of it in real life.

Now, let’s break it down: deepfake technology is like the ultimate magic trick of the digital age. It uses AI to swap faces and voices in videos, creating eerily realistic clips that can fool even the sharpest eyes and ears. And Taylor Swift? Yup, she’s been a victim of this high-tech hoax too. Imagine having your likeness plastered all over the internet, spewing out words you never uttered. It’s like waking up in a parallel universe where reality and fiction blur into one.

But sit tight, because things are about to get even wilder. See, it’s not just harmless fun and games. Nope, some shady characters out there are using deep fake tech as a weapon, and they’ve got their sights set on our very own political playground. We’re talking about “foreign actors” pulling the strings from behind the scenes, using deep fakes to stir up chaos and confusion in elections around the globe. It’s like something straight out of a spy thriller, except this time, the stakes are real, and the consequences are anything but fiction.

In the digital era, the battleground for political supremacy has extended beyond borders, reaching into the very heart of nations through the invincible threads of the internet.

In the wild world of today’s digital landscape, politics isn’t just about shaking hands and kissing babies anymore – it’s about navigating the tangled web of the internet. And guess what? Our Pilipinas Kong Mahal, with a rich tapestry of political drama and democratic dreams, is smack dab in the middle of it all.

Picture this: China allegedly sticking its finger into election pies around the globe, while deep fake tech is making it harder to trust deep into what’s real. Sounds like a blockbuster plot, right? Well, it’s real life, and it's happening in our country. So, grab your virtual seatbelt because we’re about to dive deep into what all this means for the future of Philippine politics.

You won’t believe the drama unfolding on the global political stage. Take a peek at China’s playbook: they’ve been making headlines for allegedly meddling in elections worldwide. In Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s had to face the music, admitting that, yup, China’s been poking around in’ Canadian political affairs. Meanwhile, over Taiwan, China’s been throwing shade like there’s no tomorrow, flexing its cyber muscles and even flaunting its military might to mess with Taiwan’s sovereignty.

And if you thought it was just a North American and Asian affair, think again. Uncle Sam himself, Secretary Blinken, dropped a bombshell recently, spilling the beans that the U.S. has caught wind of China trying to stick its nose into the American presidential election. Yup, you heard that right! The U.S. State Department’s not mincing words either, painting a picture of China’s interference spreading like wildfire, casting a shadow of doubt over the sanctity of democracy. It’s like a warning shot fired across the bow, reminding all of us democratic nations, including the Philippines, that we’re not immune to this meddling madness.

Get ready to have your mind blown by the latest plot twist in our political saga! Picture this: a deepfake audio clip surfaces, and it’s not just any recording – it’s supposedly our very own President Marcos Jr. giving orders to act against a potential Chinese attack. (Remember Aika Robredo’s deep fake sex video? A dose of your own medicine?) Talk about a spine-chilling wake-up call to the dark side of digital deception. Pinning the blame on a “foreign actor” just adds fuel to the fire, ringing alarm bells loud and clear about how easily technology can be twisted to shake the foundations of governments and mess with our heads.

Now, if that doesn’t have you breaking a sweat, imagine this: these incidents are like pieces of a jigsaw puzzle, painting a grim picture of what lies ahead for Philippine politics. That deep fake bombshell? It’s like a neon sign flashing, “Don’t believe everything you see or hear!” It’s a harsh reality check that our political playground is no longer a safe zone, vulnerable to anyone with a knack for tech and a motive to stir up chaos.

Fast forward to 2025, and we’ve got elections looming on the horizon. Time to buckle up and learn from the mess we’re knee-deep in! From glitchy voting machines to folks falling for every online trick in the book, we’ve got some serious vulnerabilities to patch up. It’s not just about beefing up our cyber defenses; it’s about making sure every voter knows how to sniff out the lies and spin. (Wassup, mysterious IP 192.168.0.2?) We’re talking cybersecurity upgrades, crash courses in media literacy, and cozying up to our international pals for backup. Because when it comes to safeguarding our democracy, it’s all hands on deck, guys!

Alright, folks, time to wrap things up and cut to the chase! Our Pilipinas Kong Mahal? Yup, it’s in a bit of a sticky spot right now. But hey, don’t hit the panic button just yet! The choices we make today are going to be the compass guiding us through this crazy maze of digital mayhem and meddling. It’s like we’re in one of those choose-your-own-adventure stories, and trust me, we want to pick the path where we’re the ones calling the shots, not some shady external players.

So, here’s the deal: we get to face the threats head-on and arm ourselves with knowledge and action. We’re talking about getting savvy to the tricks of digital deception and gearing up to defend our turf like warriors of truth. Because, let’s be real, nobody’s going to fight for our democracy like we can!

Remember that old saying, “There’s more in it than meets the eye”? Well, it’s like our guiding light in these murky waters. We get to keep our eyes open and stay one step ahead of the game as we sail into this brave new digital world. So, Pilipinas Kong Mahal, let’s raise our sails, keep our wits about us, and steer our ship through this wild ride of the digital age!

Content put together in collaboration with ChatGPT

Head collage photos courtesy of YouTube & Shutter Stock

Video clips courtesy of YouTube

FIRST LADY & VP SPAT: NAVIGATING POWER FROM JUDEA TO MANILA

 

In the theater of politics, where the stage is grand and the roles are as varied as they are vital, the war of words between First Lady (FL) Liza Araneta-Marcos and VP Sara Duterte has captured the nation’s attention. FL voiced a poignant plea, her words painting a picture of personal betrayal and a call for loyalty stirred with a veiled reprimand, meshed with gaping vulnerability.

“Nasaktan ako (I was hurt) because my husband will do everything to protect you… You ran together, right? (You said) we will rise together again.”

“Pupunta ka sa rally, tatawagin yung president mong bangag, ‘di ba, you’re going to laugh, tama ba ‘yan? (But you will go to a rally where they called your President a drug user, right? You’re going to laugh – is that the proper thing to do?) Even Leni (Robredo) never did that.”

In stark contrast, VP Sara Duterte’s retort is a fortress of duty and detachment:

“Bilang tao, karapatan ni Unang Ginang Liza Marcos para makaramdam ng sama ng loob at galit. Subalit ang kaniyang personal na damdamin ay walang kinalaman sa aking mandato bilang opisyal ng pamahalaan.

(As humans, it’s the right of First Lady Liza Marcos to feel upset and angry. But her personal feelings have nothing to do with my mandate as a government official.)

This clash has been spelled into the public domain, leaving us, the citizens, to ponder the weight of their words. As the lines blur and the plot thickens, we find ourselves as both spectators and critics in this unfolding drama. We are called to engage, to discern, to question. This war of words mirrors the age-old power play and how we react to these moments -- whether with passive leniency or active discourse – shapes not only our understanding but also the fabric of our society.

POWER PLAY IN JUDEA

In the annals of history, the narrative of Jesus and King Herod stands as a stark reminder of such a power play that takes two divergent paths – the political and the spiritual. M. Scott Peck, M.D. of The Road Less Traveled fame, has markedly drawn the distinction.

Political power is essentially the capacity to influence others, a function of the organizational structure, and resides in the position the person holds in a hierarchy. Always temporal, it will eventually be wrested away – by replacement, retirement, or death. On the other hand, spiritual power resides in the person’s being. It is the capacity to influence others, by example, by the virtue of the person.

Just as FL spotlighted the character of a past leader, in the person of Leni Robredo, to cast a reflection on the present, so too do we look back to the story of Jesus and Herod which depicts the contrast between the enduring influence of spiritual leadership and the temporal might of political headship – a dichotomy that continues to challenge and inspire leaders across the ages. It is within this historical context that we find a lens through which we view our current leaders, measuring them against the timeless yardstick of values.

King Herod wielded political power. He was appointed by the Roman Empire to govern Judea, and his authority was enforced by soldiers and the might of Rome. He built grand palaces, fortified cities, and even a magnificent temple. His rule was marked by political alliances, taxation, and the enforcement of law and order. He was a king who sought to maintain his power through wealth, alliances, and fear.

ONE SOLITARY LIFE

In contrast, Jesus of Nazareth embodied spiritual power. The following excerpts of a popular literary piece attributed to James Allen Francis profoundly portray such a contrasting kind of power.

He was born in an obscure village, the child of a peasant… worked in a carpenter shop… He never wrote a book. He never held an office. He never… owned a home. He didn’t go to college. He never lived in a big city. He never traveled 200 miles from the place where he was born. He did none of the things that usually accompany greatness. He had no credentials but himself.

Twenty centuries have come and gone, and today, he is the central figure of the human race… all the armies that ever marched, all the navies that ever sailed, all the parliaments that ever sat, all the kings that ever reigned – put together – have not affected the life of man on this earth as much as that one, solitary life.

Fast forward to the present, the echoes of such ancient archetype can be heard in the FL-VP’s verbal sparring where FL’s lament encapsulates the yearning for spiritual leadership.

LENI

Is it any wonder that FL, all of a sudden, flashed the name of Leni in the thick of the now infamous FL-VP’s war of words? Could the mention of Leni’s name reflect an acknowledgment of her conduct and public demeanor she displayed during her tenure as an embodiment of certain aspects of spiritual leadership, such as integrity, respect, and a commitment to service? Could the mention of Leni’s name suggest a benchmark of behavior expected of public figures, especially in situations where the dignity of the office is perceived to be at stake? Could the mention of Leni’s name imply a call for a return to certain values, like honesty, that are associated with spiritual leadership?

It’s noteworthy that in defending Imee Marcos and Bong Go during the last presidential election campaign, the VP, to my disbelief, declared: “[H]onesty should not be an issue now.”

I have a sneaking feeling that FL’s words reflect a longing for leadership that transcends political alliances and embodies the virtues of spiritual guidance. She seeks a camaraderie that mirrors the selfless devotion of spiritual leaders of yore, such as Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Luther King Jr., and Nelson Mandela, to name a few, whose power lay in their ability to inspire and uplift rather than mere command and legislate.

On the flip side, the VP’s stance is firmly rooted in the realm of political ascendancy like her father, as portrayed by the old saying: “The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.” Her response is a testament to the often, cold calculus of politics, guided by the mandate of office and the complex web of governance.

COLLECTIVE HUNGER

This dichotomy between spiritual and political leadership is not merely a matter of personal dynamics but a reflection of a broader need of our society. The yearning for spiritual leadership speaks to a collective hunger for meaning and moral clarity in our country today often mired in the quagmire of political opportunism. It is a warning that the dearth of spiritual leadership, if left unaddressed, could lead to our nation’s future where the soul of governance is lost to the machination of power.

As we stand at the crossroads of our nation’s history, the lessons of the past beckon us to reflect on the kind of leadership we seek today. Do we yearn for the Herods of the land, whose legacy is etched in stone and decree, or do we aspire to the path of the Nazarene, whose power endures in the spirit of humanity? The answer lies in the actions of those who lead us today.

In the end, the true measure of leadership may well be the ability to wield both spiritual and political power with grace and wisdom, to lead not just with the mind but also with the heart. As the author of The Little Prince says:

“It is only with the heart that one can see rightly, what is essential is invisible to the eye.”

Content put together in collaboration with Microsoft Bing AI-powered Co-pilot

Head collage photos courtesy of Inquirer and Pinterest

Video clips courtesy of YouTube

AGING WITH GRACE: CHARTING A PATH TO GOLDEN YEARS

Today is my birthday. To mark this special day, I posted the head photo above on Facebook.

Looking back, in August 2021, I started writing for real my first article What’s In A Name? that formally launched my ATABAY blog with the following lead paragraph:

"What’s in a name? That which we call a rose, by any other name would smell as sweet.” – Shakespeare’s Romeo and Juliet

To write or not to write, that’s the question I’d been dealing with after I got off from over two decades of blood, sweat, and tears in the corporate world. It’s not as existential a question as Hamlet’s “To be or not to be” since I love writing. But, where would I write? The answer: my blog – I am launching today.

To drink a toast to this day, I thought of touching base with a healthcare professional in my Healthy Talk show and picking his brains on a forward-looking subject of anti-aging lifestyle for seniors like me. So, I invited a special guest to share his insights on such a provocative subject. Help me welcome, Mr. AI.

ME Mr. AI, welcome to the show! Let's dive right in. As we age, maintaining a balanced diet becomes increasingly important. What are your top dietary recommendations for seniors seeking to promote longevity?

MR AI Thank you for having me in your show. At the heart of healthy aging lies the food we eat. Seniors, like you, need a balanced diet. From fruits and vegetables, rich in colors, grains that whisper tales of the earth, to proteins that once danced in the field, or swam in the vast oceans, they form the cornerstone of our health.

Hydration, too, is a silent hero, ensuring the fluidity of life’s functions.

When the bounty of nature falls short, supplements step in to fill the gaps. A multivitamin can be a daily toast to health, omega-3 is a nod to the heart and mind, and probiotics are a celebration of gut harmony.

And let’s not forget the unsung nutrients – calcium, vitamin D, and vitamin B12 – guardians of bone and nerve health along with antioxidants vitamin C and E – combatants against oxidative stress.

But tread carefully, the path of supplementation is best navigated with the wisdom of healthcare providers.

ME Exercise, for sure, is another key component of a healthy lifestyle. Mr. AI, I got my left knee injured while playing basketball a long time ago, and it causes pain to me today. What types of physical activities do you suggest for seniors who may have mobility issues or joint pain?

MR AI Your injury could have damaged the cartilage in your knee and caused arthritis over time as you get older. Our bodies are temples that deserve reverence and care. Gentle, low-impact exercises are ideal. Water aerobics, Tai Chi, and yoga can improve flexibility and strength – movements that honor our joints and soothe our souls. They are the rituals that keep the temple strong, and the spirit vibrant.

Regular walking and light strength training with resistance bands can also be effective.

The art of living isn’t confined to the gym or the yoga mat. It’s in the steps we take around our homes, the gardens we tend, and the chores that keep our hands busy and heart’s content. It’s about the choice to take the stairs, the decision to stand and stretch, and the commitment to move… and move… and move.

The goal is to stay active in a way that’s enjoyable and pain-free.

ME Mr. AI, I’m a writer, and I know full well that mental health is just as important as physical health. How can seniors keep their minds sharp and engaged?

MR AI Writing, your lifelong companion, has been a fountain of youth in your mind. It challenges you, nurtures you, and sometimes frustrates you. But always, it keeps your thoughts sharp and your spirit engaged.

Engaging in mentally stimulating pursuits is essential -- writing, reading, puzzles, and even social networking. For those moments when the words refuse to stream, you turn to free writing, or changing your milieu, to unleash the flow.

ME My wife and I make the most of our empty nest. Many seniors live alone and may struggle with isolation. What advice do you have for staying socially connected?

MR AI The richness of life isn’t measured in years but in the connections we forge. Social engagement, whether through shared stories, laughter, or tears, is the thread that binds the fabric of our lives -- in the book clubs, the writing groups, and even in the simple act of sharing a meal with a friend.

ME Could you share some insights on how seniors can create a supportive home environment that promotes a healthy lifestyle?

MR AI Certainly. Safe and comfortable, a home inspires a story worth telling. It’s where we write our chapters and dream our dreams.

A home, when the world feels chaotic, fortifies us. Resting our heads, we are energized by sleep - the sweet restorer, and soothed by rest - the quiet healer.

Having good lighting prevents falls and organizing the living space reduces clutter. Use assistive devices if needed, such as ramps, walkers, or grab bars.

Create a space that brings joy, whether through personal mementos, plants, or pets.

ME I’ve got one here now from our viewer. It’s not a question, but feedback. It says:

“I’m a senior and I have good news and bad news. The good news: I’m glad to know that the vitamins I’m now taking daily – Vitamins C and B – are included in the dietary supplements mentioned by your special guest, Mr. AI, a healthcare professional.

“I’m also glad to read the FDA Advisory No. 2014-054 dated 07 July 2014 which states:

“The public is further informed that a DOCTOR’S PRESCRIPTION IS NOT REQUIRED FOR OVER-THE-COUNTER MEDICINES TO AVAIL OF THE 20% DISCOUNT.” [emphasis mine]

“I’m glad to read the Inquirer reported last March 1, 2024, as follows:

“'Senior citizens do not need to present a prescription from their physicians to get the mandated 20-percent discount they are entitled to when buying over-the-counter (OTC) medicines, INCLUDING VITAMINS AND FOOD SUPPLEMENTS [emphasis mine], according to the Food and Drug Administration.'

“Here’s the bad news. A few days ago, I went to two different national drugstore branches to buy my vitamins C and B. Both drug stores asked me for the doctor’s prescription. I told them about the law. Both told me they hadn’t received any instruction from their main office. A case of management inefficiency? Or an excuse?"

ME We thank our viewers who have taken a stand against this defiance.

Wrapping up, as a writer, I’ve penned countless words, each a stepping stone on my journey. Writing has been my confidant, my muse, and my legacy. Through writing, I’ve shared my wisdom, my joys, and my sorrows. Writing has connected me with the world and left my mark.

Looking ahead, I see a path lined with the promise of stories yet to be told, friendships yet to be made, and life yet to be lived.

Fellow seniors, let’s reflect on aging, not a process of decrease, but of increase – in wisdom. I envision, not just a plan for healthy aging, but a blueprint for a life filled with faith, hope, and love.

Finally, thank you, Mr. AI, for your valuable insights. Thanks everyone for watching our show.

MR AI It’s been my pleasure. Happy Birthday once again, and here’s to many more years of health and happiness!

ME God bless us all!

Content put together in collaboration with Bing Microsoft AI-powered Co-pilot

Head photo template courtesy of Pexels

Video clips courtesy of YouTube

A TALE OF TWO AGREEMENTS: FROM SUDETENLAND TO AYUNGIN SHOAL

 

In the dimly lit corridors of history, there exists a haunting waltz – a dance between power and compromise, sovereignty and surrender, memory and folly. Imagine a grand ballroom where leaders swing, their decisions defining fate’s balancing acts. It echoes across time, reverberating from the grand halls of Munich to the secret chambers of Manila.

Now, let’s step onto the hallowed floor, putting side by side two pivotal moments: the infamous Munich Agreement of 1938 between Great Britain’s Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and Nazi Germany’s Adolf Hitler coupled with the secret “gentleman’s agreement” between Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and Chinese President Xi Jinping. As we twirl through history, let us unravel the threads that bind these seemingly disparate stories and discover the lesson they offer for our turbulent present, converge in a haunting refrain: appeasement.

The Munich Agreement: A Pact with the Devil

Picture the year 1938. Europe, still nursing its wounds from World War I, staggers on the edge of another catastrophe. Hitler, the dark conductor of Nazi Germany, raises his baton. His eyes fixate on the Sudetenland, a border in Czechoslovakia inhabited by ethnic Germans. Enter Neville Chamberlain, Britain’s Prime Minister, his shoes polished, his umbrella tucked under his arm. The Munich Agreement unfolds – a concerto of concessions. Hitler’s demands are met, and the Sudetenland is handed over like a pawn on a geopolitical chessboard. Chamberlain declares “peace for our time,” but the haunting melody plays on. Hitler’s appetite grows, and the world plunges into the abyss of World War II.

Duterte-XI: Shadows in the South China Sea

Fast-forward to the present, where the azure expanse of the South China Sea conceals hidden currents. The Philippines, a nation of sun-kissed islands, grapples with China’s territorial claims. Duterte, a maverick leader with a penchant for unorthodox moves, steps onto the stage. His partner? None other than Xi, the enigmatic conductor of China’s rise. Their dance, however, is not a tango – it’s a secret pas de deux. Their “gentleman’s agreement” whispers a promise of stability: no more provocation, no more waves. The Philippines, like Chamberlain, seeks to avoid conflict. But the dance floor trembles. The agreement remains veiled, hidden from public scrutiny. When the truth emerges, outrage erupts. Sovereignty has appeared to have been bartered away, and the dragon’s shadow looms larger.

Parallel Threads: Territorial Claims and Diplomatic Veils

Territorial Claims. The Sudetenland and the Ayungin Shoal: both held historical significance. Hitler’s pretext mirrored China’s “nine-dash line” – a sweeping assertion of sovereignty.

Transparency vs. Secrecy. The Munich Agreement stood in the spotlight -- its terms dissected by the world. Duterte-Xi’s pact remained shrouded in a backstage whisper in the theater of geopolitics.

Lessons Learned. Appeasement, whether in Munich or Manila, is a Faustian bargain. Transparency safeguards legitimacy, secrecy breeds suspicion.

What Lies Ahead

As the trilateral alliance between the United States, Japan, and the Philippines emerged, a new symphony took shape. It harmonizes deterrence with diplomacy and transparency with resolve. The dragon watches – the same dragon that once danced with Chamberlain and now casts its shadow over Duterte’s legacy. Will this alliance be the deterrence that prevents history from repeating itself? Or will it be a fleeting note lost in the winds of time?

Breaking the Cycle

The echoes of appeasement remind us that diplomacy is a delicate choreography. We must learn from the past, for the dance continues. As we sway between sovereignty and survival, let us choose our steps wisely. For in the ballroom of nations, the dragon waits, and the music plays on. Spanish-American philosopher George Santayana once warned:

“Those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it.”

Such a cautionary refrain reverberates through history, echoing in the footsteps of emperors and dictators alike as depicted by the following two striking historical events.

Napoleon Bonaparte, the audacious Corsican general who reshaped Europe’s destiny, fell victim to his hubris. In the winter of 1812, he embarked on a fateful campaign – the Russian invasion. His Grande Armee, a formidable force, marched toward Moscow, fueled by visions of conquest. Yet, the Russian expanse proved relentless. As the icy winds swept across the steppes, Napoleon’s miscalculations became stark: inadequate supplies, harsh terrain, and a resilient enemy. The once indomitable emperor retreated, leaving behind a trail of suffering. His grand design crumbled, and the Russian winter devoured his dreams.

Skip ahead to the 20th century. Another dictator, Adolf Hitler, cast his gaze eastward. The year was 1941, and Operation Barbarossa unfolded – the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union. Like Napoleon, Hitler underestimated the vastness of Russia. His blitzkrieg tactics faltered amid the mud and snow. The Russian bear, wounded but unyielding, clawed back. The Battle of Stalingrad became an inferno of sacrifice, where millions perished. Hitler’s gamble, like Napoleon’s, unraveled. The Russian winter unyielding as fate, extinguish the flames of Nazi supremacy.

In these military miscalculations, we find stark lessons. The allure of conquest blinds leaders to the bitter realities of geography and climate. The echoes of Napoleon’s retreat and Hitler’s defeat resonate: beware the arrogance that dismisses history’s whispers. For in the icy winds of Russia, the past beckons -- a chilling reminder that empires crumble, and hubris leads to ruin. Let us heed this refrain, lest we, too, be condemned to repeat the past, like Chamberlain’s infamous appeasement policy.

Let me loosen up a bit this thought-provoking article with a short story.

One morning, as I stepped onto my house frontage, I found a parked vehicle. In due course, the owner appeared to have vanished leaving the automotive eyesore to mar our house façade.

My initial annoyance soon gave way to suspicion. Could this be more than a mere parking defiance? Was there a hidden agenda behind this vehicular encroachment? I sought counsel from our local authorities who arrived with curiosity.

Afterward, we found out the owner of the parked vehicle was none other than the operator of the auto repair shop across the street. A repaired car, sat idle in my frontage, awaiting its rightful owner. But why here? Why now?

As we investigated deeper, the plot thickened. It turned out that one of the auto shop’s mechanics had courted our domestic helper – an assuming liaison that would alter the landscape of our frontage. The suitor, with a blend of audacity and charm, had secured permission from our unsuspecting helper. And so, without our knowledge, our frontage became a clandestine parking space – a good case of a “secret agreement.”

As I gazed at the clashing sight – the repaired car on our frontage – I pondered the delicate balance between neighborly goodwill and territorial sovereignty. Our front yard, it seemed, had become a microcosm of geopolitical relations – a place where unspoken understanding collided with the practicalities of life.

Content put together in collaboration with Bing Microsoft AI-powered Co-pilot

Head collage photos courtesy of Wikipedia & OneNews.PH

Video clips courtesy of YouTube

SOUTH CHINA SEA SHOWDOWN: U.S.-JAPAN-PHILIPPINES VS. CHINA

 

“Biden says US defense commitments to Japan and Philippines remain ‘ironclad’ as he hosts key meeting amid China tensions” -- CNN

“It is a partnership, borne not out of convenience nor of expediency, but as a natural progression of deepening relations and robust cooperation amongst our three nations, linked by a profound respect for democracy, good governance, and the rule of law.” – President Marcos Jr.

ME Hello everyone! Welcome to our show, GeopoliTic Talk. Today we have a special guest who will shed light on the present tension in the South China Sea and the implications of the recent Trilateral Summit among the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines. Help me welcome our special guest, Mr. AI, a geopolitical expert.

MR AI Thank you for having me. I look forward and do my best to answer your questions on this hot issue of the day.

ME Let’s dive right in. The South China Sea (SCS) has been a longstanding flashpoint for territorial disputes. Can you provide some historical context for our viewers?

MR AI Certainly. The SCS, spanning a vast expanse of water bordered by several countries, has a rich historical backdrop. Here are some key points:

Ancient Maritime Routes. For centuries, the SCS served as a vital maritime route. Ancient traders – Chinese, Indians, and Arabs – sailed these waters for spices, silk, and other valuable goods. Historical maps reveal that various islands and reefs were used as navigational markers and occasional stops.

Colonial Influence. European colonial powers, including Spain, Portugal, and the Netherlands, established footholds in the region. The Treaty of Tordesillas (1494) divided the world between Spain and Portugal, indirectly affecting territorial claims in the SCS. The Spratly Islands, Paracel Islands, and Scarborough Shoal became contested areas for colonial legacies.

Post-World War II Shifts. After World War II, the geopolitical landscape changed dramatically. The Republic of China (ROC) claimed the entire SCS based on historical maps. The ROC’s defeat in the Chinese Civil War led to the retreat of its forces to Taiwan, but its territorial claims persisted.

Modern Disputes. The establishment of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1949 further complicated matters. The PRC inherited the ROC’s claims, including the infamous “nine-dash line.” Other countries, including Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei, also staked their claims to various islands and features.

ME Fascinating! Now, let’s turn our attention to the recent U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral Summit. What were the key outcomes, and how do they impact the region?

MR AI The summit addressed critical regional security concerns. Here are the key outcomes:

Joint Vision Statement. The leaders emphasized a commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific based on international law. This vision statement underscores the importance of adhering to established norms and rules in the region.

Security Cooperation. Strengthening security ties between the Philippines, Japan, and the U.S. were a central focus. Collective responses to China’s assertiveness were discussed, signaling a united front against regional challenges.

Economic And Humanitarian Aspects. The summit highlighted economic growth opportunities, infrastructure projects, and disaster response exercises. By combining security and economic cooperation, the trilateral alliance aims to enhance stability and resilience.

ME Impressive! But what are the potential implications for the Philippines? Are there any drawbacks to this alliance?

MR AI Certainly. Let’s explore the pros and cons.

Pros

Strengthened Security Ties. The Philippines benefits from enhanced security cooperation with both Japan and the U.S.

Collective Response. The trilateral alliance provides a coordinated approach to counter China’s assertiveness in the SCS.

Economic Benefits. Infrastructure projects and economic growth opportunities can boost the Philippine economy.

Cons

Limited Regional Support. Other Southeast Asian states may not fully engage in this trilateral effort.

Risk of Escalation. Balancing security interests without provoking conflict is delicate.

Complex Regional Dynamics. Navigating sovereignty concerns and intricate relationships requires careful diplomacy.

ME Thank you, Mr. AI. Finally, how does China view this trilateral alliance, and what are its hegemonic ambitions in the region?

MR AI China perceives the trilateral alliance as a challenge to its regional dominance. Its assertive actions in the SCS reflect a desire for hegemony – a position of preeminent and control. The delicate balance of power is at play -- with smaller nations seeking to safeguard their interests while avoiding escalation.

ME Well, there you have it, folks! A fascinating glimpse into the complexities of the SCS and the implications of the trilateral summit.

Before we wrap up, let me show a piece of work to our viewers, creatively put together by our young artists in the studio, inspired by the essence of these words:

“Parables confront us with disturbing truths we might otherwise miss and reveal what lies in darkness. At turns, funny, poignant, irreverent, and shocking, they cut into us with surgical precision, reaching deep into the hidden recesses of our soul, operating on those parts of our being that more direct speech can’t touch.”

Please, roll it.

Prologue

SCS Street was a quiet neighborhood lined with modest houses and flowering trees. Here the scent of flowers mingled with the aroma of freshly brewed coffee. But beneath the serene façade, tensions simmered like a pot about to boil over.

Enter our characters: Mr. Wang, a wealthy businessman with a penchant for arrogance, and Juan, a simple gardener who tended to his tiny patch of green with love. Their clash would soon escalate into a neighborhood drama.

Scene 1

Juan’s mornings began with the gentle rustling of leaves. His garden, though small, was his sanctuary – a place where he nurtured roses and whispered secrets to the daisies. But one sunny morning, the tranquility shattered. A sleek black sedan pulled up in front of Juan’s house, and out stepped Mr. Wang.

Mr. Wang was a man of excess. His tailored suit screamed affluence, and his diamond-studded watch caught the sunlight. He surveyed SCS Street with a haughty expression as if he owned every inch of it. And perhaps he did, for he parked not one, but three luxury cars right on Juan’s patchy lawn.

Scene 2

Juan’s blood boiled. He had worked tirelessly to maintain his little garden, and now it was trampled by Mr. Wang’s tires. Juan’s wife, Maria, fumed too. “This is our home, not his parking lot!” she declared.

But Mr. Wang was unyielding. “I’m a big man in a big world,” he declared. “You’re just ants scurrying around.”

Scene 3

Juan thought he couldn’t face Mr. Wang alone. He dialed his friends, Sam and Sato. Sam, a burly retired marine, lived across the street. Sato, a wise old man with a penchant for bonsai trees, resided next door.

They convened in Juan’s living room, sipping coffee and plotting their strategy. Sam, flexed his muscles, ready for action. Sato adjusted his spectacles and said, “We must stand together, my friends. Wang’s arrogance threatens our peace.”

Scene 4

The trio confronted Mr. Wang. Sam towered over him; arms crossed. Sato recited ancient proverbs about humility and community. Juan, with Maria by his side, spoke from the heart. “Mr. Wang, this is our home. We won’t tolerate your bullying.”

Mr. Wang scoffed. “I’m a big man in a big world,” he declared. “You’re just ants scurrying around.”

But then, a shadow fell across the pavement. Sam’s friend, Joe, appeared – a retired judge with a stern gaze. “Wang,” he said, “you’re violating the neighborhood code. Respect your neighbors."

Scene 5

Mr. Wang’s face reddened. He moved his cars, muttering about “small people.”

Juan, Sam, and Sato planted flowers where the tires had crushed the garden. The community rallied behind them, and even the local news covered their stand.

Epilogue

And so, on SCS Street, the rich learned that wealth couldn’t buy everything. Sometimes, it took a poor gardener, a retired marine, and an old bonsai master to remind them of the true value of a neighborhood, a community – a place where the heart bloomed brighter than any luxury car.

ME Thank you, young creative artists, for such a profound piece of work. Thank you, Mr. AI, for your thought-provoking insights. Thank you, everyone, for watching the show. Good day!

Content put together in collaboration with Bing Microsoft AI-powered Co-pilot

Head collage photos courtesy of Inquirer, Dreamstime, & Shutterstock

Video clips courtesy of YouTube

THE BLACK SUN & THE BLACK SWAN: I TOLD YOU SO

 

Charmed, I gazed upon my laptop screen, where live CNN coverage unveiled the celestial spectacle of the recent total solar eclipse. A sea of onlookers, a mosaic of anticipation, flocked in the open ground, their silhouettes dissolving into dusk’s embrace. The world paused, breath held, as day succumbed to an ephemeral night, casting a realm of wonder for a fleeting span of few minutes. Murmurs of awe – “Oh” and “Ah” – rippled through the mesmerized crowd.

Blessed with young granddaughters, aged four and six, I found myself wrapped in wonder, imagining their wide-eyed astonishment as the enchanting shroud of total darkness descended upon the path that meanders to my daughter’s home in Texas. In those moments, the world transformed, and through their innocent eyes, I could only imagine the pure, and unbridled joy of witnessing Mother Nature’s grand spectacle.

As a writer, the image of a black sun on the front pages of international news outlets, reminds me of my past ATABAY article Eat Bulaga – Tito, Vic & Joey Breakup: A Black Swan Analysis. A Black Swan phenomenon is an unpredictable and rare event that has a huge impact – either positive or negative – depending on the perspective and readiness of the people involved. The connection is obviously through the word black, while the drift of the article is encapsulated by the gist of the expression I told you so. Before I dive into this article, let me share beforehand two past ATABAY articles bearing the same I-told-you-so theme.

JUAN TAMAD AND SIMPLISTIC THINKING

In one article Juan Tamad Within Us May Elect Our Next President, I propounded that in the 2022 presidential elections, Pinoys would use the part of the brain that Nobel Prize laureate Daniel Kahneman called in his book Thinking Fast and Slow -- the System 1. It is thinking automatically and quickly with little or no effort at all. In contrast, Kahneman referred to System 2 as thinking with effort and attention.

Why do most Pinoys use System 1 instead of System 2?  Because “thinking is difficult and laborious” Dr. M. Scott Peck explained in his book The Road Less Traveled. He added that “laziness is very real.” In other words, Pinoys, because of laziness, like Juan Tamad, resort instead to System 1 thinking with little or no effort a bit. Peck called such thinking as simplistic: “One of the major dilemmas we face as individuals and as a society is simplistic thinking, or the failure to think. It is not a problem; it is the problem.”

Here's the I-told-you-so confirmation by Darryl Yap, writer, director, and a UniTeam top promoter that validated my notion.

“We are just stupid. I’m sorry… I don’t care, I don’t get offended, I don’t get hurt, when people say, “O, natanga ka, nabudol ka” at all…”

In the other article Letter To Inday Sara Supporter Who Is Also My Friend, I shared a fresh insight to my friend then that her Inday Sara would be in a better position in the long haul as a VP should Leni be elected president in the 2022 election. Coincidentally, such an insight was much like Rep. Joey Salceda’s RoSa tandem – his endorsement then of Leni Robredo for president and Sara Duterte for VP.

A HORDE OF PRESIDENTIAL WANNABES

Here's an excerpt of my rationale:

“Bongbong is running under the umbrella of multiple parties with a throng of vested interests. Aiming now for the 2028 presidency is a horde of younger and ambitious breed of second-generation leaders emerging from a band of dynastic political clans embedded in Bongbong camp.”

Here’s the I-told-you-so confirmation from the following headline and the words straight from the horse’s mouth:

“Sara Duterte decries ‘organized demolition job’ against her” – Philstar

“We can see it in the attack on confidential funds, the spread of the video of Commonwealth traffic, making an issue out of the security personnel of the Office of the President (OVP), the witness who came out to accuse me of being part of the Davao Death Squad, in the malicious report about my guns, and the disrespectful remarks about my relationship with my husband.” (VP Sara Duterte)

The moniker tambaloslos is known to lead the pack.

BLACK SWAN UPSIDES

Now let’s dive into the article Eat Bulaga – Tito, Vic & Joy Breakup: A Black Swan Analysis where I propounded a positive outcome.

"Eat Bulaga (EB) & Tito, Vic & Joey (TVJ) breakup can create opportunities and innovations for the parties involved, as well as for the TV industry and culture. It can give Tape Inc. and GMA Network a chance to reinvent themselves and their shows coupled with attracting new talents and audiences. 

"It can provide TV5 a chance to showcase its capabilities and vision along with challenging the status quo and competition. It can present TVJ and their co-hosts with a window to explore new avenues and directions to go with expressing their creativity and freedom. 

"It can offer the fans and viewers a room to discover new shows and sources of entertainment on top of broadening their horizons and preferences.

“Competition is always a good thing. It forces us to do our best. A monopoly renders people complacent and satisfied with mediocrity.” (Nancy Pearcy, author)

Here's the I-told-you-so validation from the viewers’ perspectives on the latest happenings.

“GMA and ABS-CBN’s first co-produced It’s Showtime episode trumps TV5’s ‘Eat Bulaga!’” – Rappler

“Mga viewers pa rin ang panalo sa tapatan ng Eat Bulaga, It’s Showtime” -- Abante

“Maganda itong ganitong kumpetisyon. It is setting better standards ng panoorin para sa mga viewers ng noontime show.”

“One thing is sure. Hindi sila puwedeng maging kampante. I’m sure they’ll come up with a Level Up version soonest.”

“Kapag nangyari yun, tayong mga audience ang panalo!” that could still the tides.

“Who would have thought this would happen? Plot twist ng taon.”

"I’m so happy na wala nang network wars. I always find it childish. In reality, all actors/actresses support each other regardless of the network.”

The singer, and lead vocalist of Filipino rock band, Rocksteddy, Teddy Corpuz, shares a profound point to ponder:

“You’re making us fight, why not just patronize both? Yes, there’s competition… sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Both shows try to make you happy. If you’re not happy with one show, just watch the other show and stop destroying it. Focus on the TV and not on the TV (show) of your competitor.”

Folks, how about aligning with the dance of the sun and moon during the recent total solar eclipse as depicted by our concluding prose below?

As if by some cosmic grace, the veil slowly lifted in the grand theater of heaven, the sun and the moon emerged as celestial dancers, their luminous forms entwined in a dance of shadow and light. The sun, a fiery dancer, blazed with a passion that could ignite the skies, while the moon, a silvery sprite, moved with grace that could still the tides.

In the eyes of my two granddaughters, for sure, the celestial dance wove a tapestry of unspeakable wonder and indelible memory, as the backdrop of the cosmos shifted from the deep velvet of night to the soft glow of dawn. And as the dance reached its finale, the duo – the radiant sun and the gentle moon – slowly let go of their embrace, bathing the scene in a familiar light of day, parting in a silent adieu, leaving the world yearning for the duo’s next rendezvous.

Content put together in collaboration with Bing Microsoft  AI-powered Co-Pilot

Head photo courtesy of TAPinto & istockphoto

Video clips courtesy of YouTube

THE UNSEEN IMPACT: HOW EARLY SURVEYS & NON-RESPONDERS SHAPE PH ELECTIONS

 

Imagine you’re a voter, making your way through the bustling streets of the city when someone politely stops you and asks you questions. You realize she is an election surveyor searching for survey participants.

Smiling, she extends a clipboard towards you, adorned with a stack of neatly printed survey forms.

“Sorry to bother you,” she begins, “I’m conducting a survey on public opinion regarding the upcoming presidential election. Would you be interested in participating?”

You hesitate, a furrow forming on your brow. Memories of past election surveys flash through your mind – surveys that had promised accurate predictions but had ultimately fallen short, leaving voters, like you, disillusioned and distrustful. Reports of manipulations and bias had further fueled your skepticism, casting a shadow of doubt over the entire survey process.

Along with your distrust, you harbor suspicion about the timing of the survey. Four years before the actual election? It seems premature, almost like propaganda meant to sway public opinion long before the campaign season even begins.

With these concerns weighing heavily on your mind, you politely decline, offering a brief explanation for your reluctance.

“I appreciate your offer,” you say, “but I’ve lost faith in these surveys. They’ve failed us before, and conducting one so far in advance raises suspicions of propaganda”

The surveyor nods understandingly, her expression sympathetic.

“I understand your concern,” she replies, “but your voice matters. Your opinions shape the future of our country, especially in an election as crucial as this one.”

You sigh, torn between your desire to contribute to the democratic process and your reservations about the reliability of surveys and their potential for manipulations.

“I know,” you admit, “but it’s hard to trust something that let us down so many times before, especially when it feels like it’s being used to influence us unfairly.”

With a nod of gratitude, she bids you farewell. As she makes her way through the bustling street, she reflects on her encounter with you – the skeptical voter. Little does she know, such an encounter, a piece of a larger puzzle, has highlighted the complex interplay of premature surveys, non-response bias, and the erosion of public confidence in the electoral system.

Does the above scenario sound familiar and real?

Well, let’s get the picture from the Daily Tribune Editorial:

“More recently, Pulse Asia released the results of a poll on 2028 election prospects, which surprised many because it did not serve any purpose but to condition the minds of the public.

“The poll ranked the presidential chances of personalities and celebrities, asking: ‘Some say those who can run for the presidency in the 2028 elections are the following. Who would you vote for if the 2028 elections were held today?” Then a list was provided.

“Curiously, the pollster classified the results as part of its Ulat ng Bayan series to lend credibility in exchange for access

“These election surveys are never accurate. Pick any particular election poll and compare it with the actual results.

“Pollsters, however, earn huge sums from those who commission the surveys in exchange for access to the questions asked.

“The recent presidential survey featuring personalities and celebrities was also strangely branded as part of a quarterly survey to lend legitimacy.

“There are also suspicions of fudged figures in the surveys through the manipulation of the survey methodologies, notably when the two prominent pollsters simultaneously released the results of their surveys conducted almost during identical periods but with contrasting results.

“Many ask how the results of the two pollsters’ surveys could differ so widely when they supposedly take the pulse of the population using the same formula.

“The period before the regular elections is considered a dry spell for survey firms.

“Holding an election survey at this time is a financial boon for the polling firms, even though the actual presidential election is four years away.”

(Let me digress for a moment to briefly mention that after the 2022 presidential election, Ana Pamintuan cited in her Philstar column the OCTA Research “for being the new reliable player in the industry, its detailed pre-election polling… FRIGHTENINGLY accurate.” (emphasis mine) Why didn’t the media then heap praise, if not cast doubt, upon their polling collaborator's phenomenal feat? Could it be that the feat was so frighteningly accurate that it has crept up on the TNTrio’s claim of the alleged rigging of the 2022 presidential election?)

Now let’s go back to our topic.

The Phenomenon of Premature Surveys

In a country where democracy hangs in the balance, the influence of election surveys cannot be underestimated. Yet, in the Philippines, these surveys often serve as more than just a barometer of public opinion – they are a battleground for trust and legitimacy. 

Just as a premature survey conducted years before the actual election becomes increasingly common, like faces on the tarpaulins along the roads across the country (you may read my ATABAY article Faces on Tarpaulins: The Rise Of Pre-campaign Tactics), so too does the skepticism and suspicion that surround them.

These surveys, conducted with seemingly benign intentions, often serve to shape public perception and influence political dynamics long before the campaign season officially begins. From building momentum for favored candidates to setting the agenda for political discourse, premature surveys wield significant influence over the electoral landscape.

Deciphering Non-Response Bias

At the core of premature surveys is the non-response bias. This occurs when critical thinking independent voters, disillusioned by past survey failures and perceived manipulations, choose not to participate in surveys. As a result, the sample of respondents becomes skewed, with eager beaver supporters of certain candidates overrepresented in the survey results. This bias distorts the accuracy of survey findings, creating a false sense of popularity and momentum around particular candidates.

The Potent Vicious Cycle

Imagine a scenario where critical thinking independent voters opt out of participating in a premature survey, while supporters of, say, Candidate S eagerly respond. The skewed sample leads to survey results showing Candidate S in a leading position, triggering a bandwagon effect among voters.

As Associate Justice of the Supreme Court Leonen asserted:

“[T]here is the bandwagon effect where ‘electors rally to support the candidate leading in the polls.’ This assumes that knowledge of a popular ‘tide’ will likely change voting intentions in [favor] of the frontrunner…”

Just as the perceptions of Candidate S’s popularity and electability grow, so too does the support base. This self-reinforcing cycle perpetuates itself, influencing voter behavior, media coverage, and campaign strategies.

Implications for Future Elections

The implications of this vicious cycle extend far beyond individual elections. By distorting public perception and influencing voter behavior, premature surveys and non-response bias undermine the integrity and fairness of the electoral process. They erode trust in democracy, disenfranchise critical thinking voters, and perpetuate a cycle of manipulation and bias.

To safeguard the future of Philippine democracy, policymakers, electoral authorities, and survey researchers must address these challenges head-on, promoting transparency, accountability, and public engagement in the electoral process.

Wrapping up, as we navigate the complex terrain of Philippine politics, it is essential to recognize the power and pitfalls of election surveys. The seemingly benign act of not participating in a survey due to distrust and perceived manipulations can have profound consequences, shaping the issue of who will be our next president.

By untangling the dynamics of premature surveys and non-response bias, we can work together towards a future where the voice of every voter is heard, and the integrity of our democracy is preserved. The stakes are high. The future of Philippine democracy is in our hands.

Content put together in collaboration with ChatGPT

Head collage photos courtesy of PxHere and Pixabay

Video clips courtesy of YouTube