A TALE OF TWO WOMEN LEADERS

 

“You always want to quit while you are ahead. You don’t want to be like a fighter who stays too long in the ring until you’re not performing at your best.” (Clint Eastwood)

I asked ChatGPT to reflect on Eastwood’s words, describe a typical brawl between two fighters, and give some flesh and blood on the bones of the clash taking place inside the ring. The following piece it crafted in seconds which I edited for brevity and clarity:

In the heart of the boxing arena, the air pulses with thrill, as both fighters step into the spotlight. The crowd’s red-hot energy electrifies the mood, setting the stage for a clash of two steely warriors. Every gaze zeroes in on the ring, psyched up to watch a combination of strength, agility, and grit.

As the bell tolls, the boxers explode into action, their bodies honed to perfection. Jab by jab, moving with precision, their fists carve paths through the air like lightning bolts. Each blow showcasing their years of training, with muscles rippling beneath sweat-soaked skin, both fighters give their best shot for a knockout.

Amid the relentless action, emotions flare, revealing the heart and soul of each fighter. True grit etches lines on their faces, as their eyes burn with unyielding resolve. The rush of adrenaline fuels their spirits, pushing them to grin and bear even though their bodies beg for respite.

As the roar of the crowd and the intoxication of battle surround both fighters, an equilibrium must be held fast.  For when fighters linger past the peak of their prowess, when they turn a deaf ear to the subtle whispers of their mortality, they risk more than just a defeat.

They gamble with their honor, their reputation, and even their lives.

 

Boxing is a good metaphor for the human experience – reminding us of the delicate balance we must strike between chasing our passion and knowing when to gracefully step aside. This leads us to a parallel narrative – the complex tapestry of political life.

Just as the fighter who overstays his welcome in the ring risks a lot – his honor, respect, reputation, and even his life, so too does the traditional politician who clings to power beyond her worth and even below her grade. Just as the boxer’s punches lose their impact and footwork turns sluggish, so too does the traditional politician’s ideas may go stale, her vision may turn myopic, and her link to the needs of the people may be washed out. For her peers, she may emerge as a relic of a bygone era, unable to adapt to the shifting dynamics of society in constant flux. For her constituents she once sought to serve, they may now question her motives and integrity. Spilling the beans, the following headline homes in on who she is.

“Gloria Arroyo demoted, loses ‘senior’ title in House deputy speakership”

As expected, the following speculations as to why she was demoted have swept over the opinion pages of the mainstream media:

a)    She was being punished for trying to overthrow the House Speaker.

b)    She said her actions “may have been misconstrued.”

c)    She may be being neutralized for her ties with the VP and her prexy ambition.

d)    The President said the demotion was part of a reorganization.

e)    She will probably be offered a position more important than a Deputy Speaker.

Speculations (a), (b), (c), & (d) have given weight to the somber reality of losing more than just a defeat by the boxer who “lingers past the peak of his prowess,” and to be exact, by the traditional politician who clings to power “beyond her worth and below her grade.” Speculation (e) needs to heed this caveat: “If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.”

More than a decade ago, in 2010, looking back, some Pinoys might be stunned when she did not retire from politics after the end of her presidency, but ran instead for a lower position as a congresswoman of her district. In clinging to political power, she offered grounds for such a downgrading political move by saying she wanted to continue serving the people.

The rest is history.

Four months ago, another woman leader, Jacinda Ardern, the prime minister of New Zealand from 2017 to 2023, shocked many of her constituents and leaders around the world by announcing her stepping down. She said:

“I’m leaving, because with such a privileged role comes responsibility. The responsibility to know when you are the right person to lead and also when you are not. I know what this job takes. And I know that I no longer have enough in the tank to do it justice. It’s that simple.”

She wanted to end her career on a high note and pass the baton to someone else who had more vision and ideas. She left a positive legacy that inspired millions around the world with her kindness, strength, empathy, and optimism.

At 37, she became the world’s youngest female leader in 2017. Held in high esteem globally, and known for her demeanor and compassion as a liberal politician, she was often cited as a counterpoint to more extreme politicians such as former U.S. President Trump and Brazil’s Bolsonaro.

Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations said that it’s particularly hard to imagine a politician resigning in the U.S. [How about in PH?] as Ardern did who is likely to win re-election and still being respected globally.

Jennifer Lees-Marshment, an associate professor of politics and international relations at the University of Auckland, told National Public Radio:

“I did not expect it to happen, because it is rare that politicians are that strategic and selfless.”

“Ardern stepping down before she was pushed by colleagues or lost an election may make leaders in other countries wonder if they should leave also. Most leaders are embattled due to the long-term impact of the pandemic and associated lockdowns, and the cost of living crisis. Historically leaders have waited to be pushed.”

So true. Ardern's sterling standard came to Arroyo more than a decade after her presidency. But it may not be too late for her today.

The somber reality of politics casts a shadow over the whole democratic process.  Aging leaders' inability to gracefully stepdown stifles progress and hinders the emergence of new voices and fresh ideas.

In our neighbor Thailand, what came out in its recent election was a cloud's silver lining for democracy. “I think our generation right now is starting a new era. We are mapping the points of the new era,” said youthful Rukchanok Srinork, the “giant killer,” beating a heavyweight veteran politician – epitomizing Thailand’s reshaping political landscape.

In our country, Philippines, could a youthful candidate beat a political dynastic heavyweight veteran opponent?

Only when such an opponent sees the light that he or she has stayed too long in the ring like an aging boxer, will he or she be able to pave the way and pass the torch to the youthful generation with new voices and fresh ideas to secure a brighter future for our country.

Have a blessed Sunday!

Content put together in collaboration with ChatGPT

Head collage photos courtesy of PH Official Gazette & Beehive

Video Clips courtesy of YouTube

AI POWER: A COLLABORATIVE WORK IN CRAFTING A SLOGAN

 

Have you ever wondered what it takes to be a champion? To achieve greatness in your field of passion? To overcome obstacles and defy expectations? Well, according to Nike, the answer is simple – Just Do It.

Inspiring millions of people around the world in pursuing dreams and unleashing potential, the slogan has been associated with some of the most iconic athletes and moments in sports history -- Michael Jordan, Serena Williams, and Roger Federer to name a few.

What does Nike’s Just Do It have to do with creating a great slogan for a country, say, hmm, the Philippines? Well, a slogan is not just a catchy phrase. It’s a statement of identity. It’s a reflection of values. It’s a vision of the future.  Likewise, it attracts visitors and investors and showcases a country’s culture, beauty, and potential. A slogan can be a powerful tool for nation branding.

The Philippines has a lot to roll out to the world, though it faces many challenges and problems, such as poverty, corruption, and natural disasters. Keeping up with many competitors and rivals in the region, such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, the Philippines needs a slogan to attract and persuade tourists and travelers.

Have you ever wondered what it takes to create a perfect slogan for our country? A slogan that will capture the essence and identity of a diverse and complex nation in just a few words? A slogan that can make a lasting impression and impact on the world stage?

 I have. And I found out that it’s not a walk in the park. It requires a good deal of research, brainstorming, and evaluation along with a lot of creativity, skill, and passion.

But I didn’t do it alone. I had a copilot – smart, fast, and reliable – powered by artificial intelligence. Yes, you read that right. I collaborated with Microsoft Bing AI-powered copilot in attempting to create a slogan for the Philippines.

To kick in, we revisited our country’s past slogans to avoid a carbon copy, as well as a replay of old weaknesses, thus my copilot generated the list:

2002-2010. WOW Philippines: Conceptualized to highlight the diverse attractions and destinations as well as to counter the negative image of the country due to political instability and conflicts, this slogan was well-received by the public and helped boost the tourism industry.

2010. Pilipinas Kay Ganda: Highlighting the beauty of the Philippines and its people, culture, and environment, this slogan was short-lived due to criticism and controversies, such as its similarity to a Polish tourism website and its lack of appeal to foreign tourists.

2012-2017. It’s More Fun in the Philippines. Showcasing the fun and excitement of visiting the Philippines, coupled with showing its diverse and vibrant culture, nature, and the positive attitude of Pinoys, this slogan was widely viral on social media boosting the country’s tourism competitiveness.

2017. Experience the Philippines. Accenting the experience and immersive aspect of traveling to the Philippines, this slogan was meant to appeal to millennial travelers seeking meaningful and memorable experiences.

2020-2023. Wake Up in the Philippines. Inviting travelers to wake up in the Philippines and discover its wonders and possibilities, this slogan was part of the campaign to revive the tourism industry amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

For benchmarking, we delved into a selection of several country slogans, a handful of samples is shown below:

Incredible India. Playing on alliteration and repetition, creating a catchy and memorable phrase, conveying India’s bursting surprises and wonder.

Malaysia Truly Asia. Putting into effect rhyme and repetition, forging a catchy and memorable phrase, highlighting its authenticity as a portrait of Asia.

I love New York. A simple and direct statement expressing a strong emotion of a heart symbol, rather than the word “love,” creating a visual impact and a romantic logo.

New Zealand: 100% Pure. Intimating natural beauty and purity in attracting travelers seeking eco-friendly adventures.

Spain: Spain Marks. Setting in motion the double meaning of the word “marks,” “impressing” or “leaving a trace,” hinting at lasting impression on tourists and travelers.

Next, I asked my copilot to generate the following A-list of 5 prominent slogans for our consideration (this is only a demo; in real project, the more choices the better):

Philippines: Feel at Home. Conveys the hospitality and friendliness of Pinoys, aside from the comfort and convenience of the visit.

Philippines: The Ultimate Adventure Destination. Inspires and welcomes the world to take action for adventure and exploration prospects.

Philippines: A World of Wonder. Showcases the wonder and beauty of the Philippines, as well as its heritage, cuisine, and arts.

Philippines: Discover Diversity. Reflects the diversity of the Philippines in terms of its geography, culture, language, religion, and wildlife

Philippines: The Heart of Asia. Draws upon metaphor and contrast to create a catchy and memorable phrase in positioning the country as the center and essence of Asia.

The “Must” criterion dropped carbon copy slogans used by other countries which my copilot generated from the internet archive as follows:

A World of Wonder: Ireland and Malaysia have used this slogan.

Discover Diversity: South Africa and Canada have used this slogan.

The Heart of Asia: Taiwan used this slogan.

The “Want” criterion chose between the two remaining slogans based on the general guidelines my copilot generated as follows:

Short and simple. No more than five words, and easy to remember or pronounce

Unique and original. Avoid clichés and generic phrases; stand out from other slogans

Relevant and meaningful. Reflect identity, values, and culture; appeal to emotions

Catchy and creative. Use rhyme, alliteration, puns, metaphors, or humor for impact

Consistent and coherent. Match the tone, style, and message of the country’s brand

And the Winner is…tadah -- Philippines: The Ultimate Adventure Destination.

Rationale:

a)    Delivers the unique sales pitch of the Philippines as a destination for adventure – diving, surfing, hiking, and kayaking, among others.

b)    Puts in motion the word “ultimate” – a powerful and positive word attracting tourists looking for the best and most exciting experience.

c)    Concise, catchy, and striking plus a nice alliteration with the words “ultimate” and “adventure”.

Finally, I asked my copilot to write a short piece to be printed on a brochure or posted on airports’ walls which it generated in seconds dreaming up Lea Salonga’s endorsement:

“Hi, I’m Lea Salonga, a singer, actress, columnist, and producer from the Philippines. You may know me from my roles in Broadway musicals such as Miss Saigon, Les Miserables, and Aladdin. You may also know me as the singing voices of Disney princesses, Jasmine and Fa Mulan.

But today, I’m not here to talk about my career. I’m here to talk about my country, the Philippines: The Ultimate Adventure Destination.

If you’re looking for excitement and thrill, the Philippines has stunning natural wonders, such as white-sand beaches, volcanoes, waterfalls, and caves. Rich in cultural heritage, such as ancient temples, colonial churches, colorful festivals, and delicious cuisine, my country with my fellow hospitable and friendly Pinoys are known for our smiles, laughter, and generosity.

The Philippines is a country that is full of adventure and surprises. It is a country that will challenge you to explore the unknown and discover the unexpected.

That’s why I’m inviting you to visit the Philippines. To see for yourself its beauty and diversity. To experience for yourself the magic and warmth of its people. To discover for yourself the spirit of its culture.

Come to the Philippines. The Ultimate Adventure Destination.”

Content put together in collaboration with Microsoft Bing AI-powered copilot

Head photo courtesy of Spot.ph

      Video clips courtesy of YouTube

PENSION GAP: CREATING A PRIVILEGED CLASS OF RETIREES

 

It was a triple whammy for me.

I got a private message lately from a friend in college who kept me posted on the dire medical condition of another college friend – he is undergoing dialysis twice weekly and is already blind due to his illness. That’s the first whammy.

Having sought my help financially, my friend, no doubt, has boosted my self-worth. But truth be told, I am a retiree who can’t afford to cut out a bit from my monthly pension – not even enough to sustain my living expenses. Thanks to my wife who retired from her banking job with a generous retirement package. Thus, sad to say, I could not financially help my sick friend. That’s the second whammy.

For my over two-decade work in a company as a civil engineer, I belong to the SSS class of retirees averaging a measly monthly pension of P4,528. Measly because GSIS retirees average a relatively higher P13,600. Yet, it’s no biggie compared to the yawning gap put up for the special class of military and uniformed personnel (MUP) retirees averaging a P40,000 monthly pension. As such, here’s the latest summation fanning out in social media describing such a gap – unfair and unjust. I thought I could have helped my sick friend, in one way or another, had I gotten a bigger pension. That’s the third whammy.

If you’re a typical retiree, you’ll find the phrase “unfair and unjust” too apt after you read the following story among other similar stories on social media.

TEACHER’S STORY

During a family reunion, a teacher met her cousin – an MUP retired general – who boasted about his luxurious lifestyle and his lavish travels around the world. He said he was receiving a monthly pension of almost P200,000, which was equivalent to his last salary. He also said he did not have to pay any contribution to his pension, and that he retired at 56 years old. He said he was lucky to be part of the MUP, enjoying the best retirement benefits in the country.

(At this point, I recalled DBM Secretary Benjamin Diokno who said, “The pension system for the military and uniformed personnel in the Philippines is one of the most generous in the world.” A compliment? Economist Solita Monsod said it in another way, “The pension system is a ticking time bomb.”)

Let me go on with the story. The teacher was shocked and outraged by what the general said. She was teaching for 30 years in a public school. She had to pay monthly premiums to GSIS for her pension. She waited until she was 65 years old to retire. She has to live on a modest budget and save for her future. She felt there was something wrong and unjust with the system.

She was right that something was wrong. The MUP do not contribute a single cent to their pensions, unlike other government workers (GSIS and SSS members). The MUP can retire after 20 years of service, regardless of their age, and they are automatically promoted to one rank higher upon retirement. MUP’s pensions are indexed to the base pay scale of those in active service – an increase in the incumbent MUP position means a corresponding increase in the retiree’s pension.

She was not wrong, in speaking of the unjust system. For 2023 alone, Inquirer columnist Joel Ruiz Butuyan reported that “our government had to allocate a whopping P273 billion to fund the pension and gratuity fund for MUPs. The number of retired MUP personnel is 137,549 as of the first quarter of 2023. Contrast this to the P224 billion disbursed by the SSS for the pension, retirement, and other benefits of 3.36 million pensioners and members of the private sector in 2021.”

Butuyan added that such MUP’s P273 billion pension benefits are bigger than the 2023 budget of the DSWD’s P199 billion or DOH’s P209 billion. More so, MUP’s P273 billion is bigger than the AFP’s 2023 operating expenditures and capital outlays of P110 billion.

By and large, the MUP pension package is unequal and unjust. First, it creates a disparity and discrimination between the MUP and the other government workers in terms of retirement benefits. Second, it violates the principle of justice and fairness by creating a privileged class of MUP retirees. Third, it poses a fiscal challenge for the government and a burden for the taxpayers since the MUP pension package is unsustainable and unaffordable in the long run, as it consumes a large chunk of the national budget that could be used for other social services or development programs.

The total payouts shall breach the P1 trillion mark by 2025 from P213 billion this year. Here’s Diokno’s warning: An imminent government fiscal collapse if no reforms are instituted.

WHAT CAN BE DONE?

Implementing a comprehensive pension reform that will ensure equity, fairness, sustainability, and adequacy for all government employees is the way of solving this problem with the following measures, among others:

1.    Applying a uniform retirement law for all government workers regardless of their sector or rank with a common set of eligibility criteria, benefit computation, and contribution scheme for all retirees.

2.    Removing the automatic indexation of pension to the base pay scale of those in active service which is vulnerable to political manipulation and fiscal instability.

3.    Requiring mandatory contributions from the MUP and other government workers for their pensions for an equitable and sustainable pension system.

HOW DID WE GET HERE?

 The following statements let the cat out of the bag that speaks volumes:

“[It was] put in place many years ago and built up… to reduce the chances that restive military officers would perhaps take affairs into their own hands and stage coup d’ etats.” (Inquirer Editorial)

“[B]ecause former president Duterte doubled the base pay of active MUPs, to reportedly endear himself with military and police personnel, and despite opposition from his economic team.” (Butuyan)

Teaching Moment. The mind of an economic team is no match for the power of authoritarianism – the blind submission to authority. As part of the team, Diokno’s dilemma then could be likened to former Trump press secretary Stephanie Grisham who said (a day after a New York civil court found Trump sexually abused writer E. Jean Carrol in the 1990s) that she witnessed first-hand Trump’s alleged sexual harassment. She has been criticized for not having done something consequential about it then, but wrote it instead in her published White House tell-all book.

No doubt, this is another blot on the escutcheon of Former President Rodrigo Roa Duterte (FPRRD)’s legacy besides the drug war under the International Criminal Court’s probe and the Pharmally scandal.

This pension crisis may further disfigure in defining his legacy, and fate may not be kind to him. Stephen Covey author and educator once said,

“People will forgive mistakes, because mistakes are usually of the mind, mistake of judgment. But people will not easily forgive the mistakes of the heart, the ill intention, the bad motive, the prideful justifying cover-up of the first mistake.”

Sociologist Randy David’s words may sound benign when he says, “The fat pensions of MUPs are a form of inequality that is unfair and unjust.” The outgrowth, however, could be creeping and malignant – widespread resentment. A totalitarian tool FPRRD himself operated with ease during his previous presidential campaign against the opposition, resentment is a two-edged sword that could take issue with him this time – a typical case of tasting a dose of his own medicine.

Monsod has sounded the alarm, “If it is not reformed, it will eventually collapse, and it will have a devastating impact on the lives of millions of Filipinos, including MUPs themselves.” That reminds me of this passage from the Bible: “[A] fool… built his house on the sand. The rain poured, the rivers flooded, and the wind blew against that house, and it collapsed…” (Mt. 7:26-27)

It’s a befitting passage to conclude this Sunday’s article and a good reminder to our nation’s top leaders.

Have a blessed Sunday!

Content put together in collaboration with Microsoft Bing AI-powered copilot

Head photo courtesy of SoundCloud

Video clips courtesy of YouTube

U.S. WRITERS STRIKE: HOW AI CHANGES THE FUTURE OF WRITING

 

"I’m a writer." When you hear those words from someone you just met at a party, what comes to your mind? A novelist, a journalist, a poet, a blogger? One who writes stories, news, poems, or articles?

What if someone in that party says to you that a writer could be replaced soonest by artificial intelligence (AI) because it could write better, faster, and cheaper than humans – that is, writing, as we know it, could be going out of fashion?

Yikes! It sounds eerie, right? A science fiction movie, ‘tis not. This is the real world that is already taking shape.

Imagine you are a writer, crafting compelling stories, witty dialogues, and memorable characters, for long hours. You love your job, but you get to have hungry mouths to feed. You count on fair compensation for your work and rely upon some future security and benefits. But what if you figure out that your employer is not paying you what you deserve, or more awfully -- they are cooking up to replace you with a machine? How do you feel? What would you do?

Today, more than 11 thousand screenwriters have been putting up with such a dismal situation -- one of the reasons why the Writers Guild of America (WGA) – a labor union representing the writers -- is on strike.

THE TIP OF THE ICEBERG: PAY & BENEFITS

The WGA issues are:

Residuals. Writers get residuals from their works reused or distributed on different platforms, such as streaming services. The WGA wants to increase the residual rates for streaming services being the dominant form of media consumption in recent years.

Health Care. The WGA wants to maintain its health care plan, which covers medical, dental, and vision, expenses for writers and their families. At the opposite side of the negotiating table, the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) representing the major film and television Hollywood studios, wants to reduce the contributions to the plan resulting in writers’ higher premiums.

Pension. The WGA wants to increase the contributions to its pensions plan which provides retirement benefits for writers. The AMPTP wants to freeze the contributions at the current level which would jeopardize the solvency of the plan.

These issues are important to writers – for their livelihood and well-being – and to consumers – for the content’s quality and diversity of the shows. However, such issues are just the tip of the iceberg. Hidden and submerged in water, a large chunk of the iceberg, like in a famous Titanic story, has been moving closer and posing an existential threat to writers -- the impact of artificial intelligence (AI).

THE HIDDEN DEPTHS: AI AND THE FUTURE OF WRITING

AI has been advancing so rapidly recently that it can carry out the following tasks: generate text based on keywords, topics, or prompts; analyze text for sentiment, tone, style, or grammar; summarize the text or rewrite it in different ways; and even create original stories or scripts based on genres, characters, or plots.

AI hangs over the writers’ heads in two ways:

Replacement. AI could potentially take the place of a human writer entirely or partially by producing content faster, cheaper, and more efficiently resulting in job losses or reduced income for writers.

Transformation. AI could potentially transform the nature of writing by changing the expectations, standards, and values of writing resulting in a loss of autonomy or creativity for writers.

The end of the road of this strike is anyone’s guess -- as rough as mine with my three possible shots in the dark: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.

SHOTS IN THE DARK

The Good

The WGA and the AMPT reach an agreement that addresses both the visible tip and the hidden large chunk of the issues of the strike. The writers get better pay and benefits, as well as recognition and protection for their work in the face of AI. The studios and networks get to keep producing quality and diverse content with the collaboration of human and AI writers. The consumers get to enjoy more stories that are original and authentic.

The Bad

The WGA and the AMPTP fail to reach an agreement that addresses both the visible and hidden issues of the strike. Just as the writers are not giving up the strike, thereby losing income and opportunities, so too do studios and networks stick with producing content with AI writers, thereby losing quality and diversity. Meanwhile, consumers get bored or disillusioned with stories that are bland or phony.

The Ugly

The WGA and the AMPTP reach an agreement that addresses only the visible issues of the strike, ignoring or dismissing the hidden issues. The writers get better pay and benefits but lose their dignity and purpose as writers. The studios and networks get to export the writers and the AI writers, maximizing profits and control. Consumers get manipulated or deceived by stories that are biased and harmful.

AI IS HERE TO STAY

Not only is the WGA strike a labor dispute – the tip of the iceberg, it is a wake-up call for writers and readers alike, a sign of the times we live in, where AI is disrupting every industry and profession -- the larger part of the iceberg submerged in the water. Being the most endangered by this technological shift, writers are facing new challenges in this digital era.

As a writer myself, I feel for the WGA’s cause. Writing is not only a profession but also a passion and a craft. Needing creativity, skill, and imagination, writing is not something that can be simply taken over by algorithms and machines.

Or can it?

As a reader, neither a writer nor living in the U.S., you may ask, “What’s in it for me?” Well, get ready. As the old saying goes, “When America sneezes, the world catches cold.” And AI is not just a cold. It is a deviant kind of pandemic that could affect our lives and work.

The writers are not all alone. AI poses also a threat to other fields like law, medicine, and education as shown by the following headlines:

“ChatGPT passes exams from law and business schools” (CNN)

“ChatGPT passes gold-standard US medical exam” (Daily Mail)

“ChatGPT passes MBA exam given by a Wharton professor” (NBC)

AI technology that drives ChatGPT, a natural language processing tool, is reshaping our society and culture. But AI is not an enemy. It is a tool. A tool that can be used for good or evil. A tool that can enhance or diminish our human potential.

How do we solve the problem like AI?

First, we can get to know the impact of AI on our lives and work. Second, we can make sense of the AI benefits and risks. Third, we can stand up for the ethical and responsible use of AI.  Fourth, we can support the workers affected by AI, like the WGA members. Fifth, we can champion our human creativity and harness it to uplift our lives.

The writer George Orwell once said, “The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those who speak it.”

Amid the squabble in the marketplace of ideas, the truth is -- AI is here to stay.

Content of this article put together in collaboration with Microsoft Bing AI-powered copilot

Head still photo courtesy of Supernatural Wiki

Video clips courtesy of YouTube

SOUTH CHINA SEA: A GEOPOLITICAL CHESSBOARD

It was a playing-with-fire moment.

Like a knight checking a threat in its defensive position, secured only by a marooned dilapidated navy ship looking like an isolated useless pawn, the Philippine Coast Guard vessel, ill-equipped with its guard down, moved toward the Ayungin shoal.

All of a sudden, moving like a piece of rook, the Chinese coast guard ship deployed an intimidating block, maneuvering unsafely, almost ramming the Philippine vessel.

Thrown off balance, our Pinoy skipper, in no time at all, reversed his vessel’s direction, then, in an instant, shut off its engine, and in the nick of time, averted a disastrous collision.

The stakes were high. A miscalculation could have sparked a conflict that would engulf the whole region and beyond. This was not a game. Or was it?

CHESS: WAR OVER THE BOARD

I have always been fascinated by chess. Dubbed the king of games, it is the game of kings and queens, of strategy and tactics, of mind and will. A metaphor for life, for war, for geopolitics, it teaches us how to think, how to plan, and how to act. As Bobby Fischer, the 11^th World Chess Champion, once said, “Chess is war over the board. The object is to crush the opponent’s mind.”

That is why the news caught my eye about the new men’s World Chess Champion, Ding Liren from China. It pumped me up to write this article about another chess game that is unfolding before our eyes – the South China Sea (SCS) conflict – an ongoing complex dispute involving multiple players such as China, Taiwan, the U.S., and the Philippines.

Imagine a chessboard with a map of the SCS on it. The board is divided into squares, each representing a different feature of the region – islands, reefs, rocks, shoals, and waters. On one side, the white pieces represent the U.S. and its allies; on the other side, the black pieces, China and its supporters. The game has begun, and both sides are vying for control of the center of the board – the SCS.

Did you know that the SCS is home to at least 3,365 species of fish, about 571 species of reef coral, and 30 percent of the world’s coral reefs? Did you know that it produces 12% of the world’s fish catch (though accounts for only 2.5% of the planet’s ocean surface area), and serves as a fishing ground to half of the world’s 3.2 million registered fishing boats that operate there?

Did you know that it holds an estimated 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (in proven and probable reserves with much more potentially undiscovered), and carries about one-third of the world’s maritime trade?

No wonder it is one of the most contested regions in the world.

OPENING GAMBITS

China’s gambit has been to build artificial islands and militarize them to assert its sovereignty and expand its sphere of influence in the region. Since 2013, China has reclaimed over 3,200 acres of land on seven features in the Spratly islands and three features in the Paracel Islands. It has also constructed airstrips, radar stations, missile systems, and other military facilities on such islands. China claims that these activities are for defensive purposes and that it has indisputable sovereignty over most of the South China Sea based on its historical rights and its nine-dash line.

The U.S.’s gambit has been to conduct freedom of navigation operations and overflight missions to challenge China’s territorial claims and uphold international law. Since 2015, the U.S. Navy has sailed within 12 nautical miles of several features claimed by China in both the Spratly Islands and the Paracel Islands. It has also flown military aircraft over these features or near them. The U.S. asserts that these activities are for peaceful purposes and that it does not take sides in territorial disputes but supports a rules-based order by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Both sides have faced costs and benefits from their respective moves. China’s island-building and militarization have enhanced its presence and power projection in the region but have also provoked a backlash from other claimants. U.S. freedom of navigation and overflight missions have demonstrated its resolve and leadership in the region but have also risked escalation and confrontation with China.

MIDDLE GAME TACTICS

China’s main tactic has been using its economic clout to coerce its neighbors into accepting its claims or staying silent. (Rewind: “I’ll tell you, sob, [the Hague-based UN-backed tribunal ruling] is just a piece of paper. I’ll throw that in the waste basket.” – PRRD) China, for example, imposed sanctions on Philippine products, cut off water supplies to Vietnam, and threatened to boycott Australian exports. It increased its military presence and activities in the region, such as conducting drills, deploying aircraft carriers, and firing missiles.

The U.S.’s main tactic has been forming alliances and partnerships with like-minded countries in the region and beyond, such as Japan, India, Australia, Vietnam, and the Philippines, to counterbalance China’s growing influence. It conducted joint military exercises and operations with such countries, such as Exercise Malabar, Rim of the Pacific Exercise, and Balikatan, to foster a free and open Indo-Pacific.

Both sides have also employed other tactics to gain an edge or to test their opponent’s resolve. China, for example, has deployed its coast guard and maritime militia to harass and intimidate other claimants’ fishing vessels and oil exploration activities (Headline: “Philippine Coast Guard says Chinese ship aimed laser at one of its vessels” -- CNN) On the other hand, the U.S. has deployed its aircraft carriers and bombers to conduct patrols and exercises in the region.

Like poison pawns in chess, these tactics are designed to lure the opponent into making a mistake or provoking a confrontation. However, they also carry the risk of miscalculation that could lead to an unintended conflict.

END GAME: CHECKMATE, STALEMATE, OR PERPETUAL CHECK?

China’s endgame is to establish its de facto control and dominance over most of the SCS and to deter or exclude any external interference. China hopes to achieve this by consolidating its presence and capabilities on its artificial islands, coercing or co-opting its neighbors into accepting its claims or interests, and undermining or isolating the U.S. role and sphere of influence in the region.

The U.S.’s endgame is to preserve its access and presence in the SCS and to support a peaceful and lawful resolution of disputes. The U.S. hopes to achieve this by maintaining its military presence and operations in the region, strengthening its alliances and partnerships with regional countries, and encouraging dialogue and cooperation among claimants based on international law and norms.

The checkmate could happen if either side makes a miscalculation or provocation that leads to war. Case in point: if China invades Taiwan considered by the U.S. as a vital ally. Such a scenario would have catastrophic consequences for both sides and the world.

The stalemate could happen if both sides manage in avoiding direct conflict and maintain a balance of power in the region. That is, China respects the ruling of the Hague-based UN-backed tribunal invalidating its claim in 2016. On the other hand, the U.S. recognizes China’s legitimate interests and engages in dialogue and cooperation on regional issues. Such a scenario would require mutual trust and compromise from both sides.

The perpetual check could happen if both sides keep on making moves and countermoves on the SCS chessboard without resolving -- the most likely scenario in the foreseeable future. Both sides have strong incentives to avoid war but also strong reasons to maintain their positions and interests. Both sides have invested too much in this conflict to instantly back down or easily give up.

BEYOND CHESS

As I reflect on the geopolitical chess game, I can’t help but think of the chess player, Ding Liren, a young poet and philosopher as well, who says, “Chess reflects the deepest part of my soul.” Beyond doubt, he’s a piece of welcome news in the region amid the SCS brewing tension. He reminds me of Rosa Parks, the ordinary woman who sparked the civil rights movement in America by refusing to give up her seat on a bus. She showed that one person can make a difference by standing up for what is right.

I wonder if Ding Liren someday does the same for his country and his people. I wonder if he and his breed someday become a catalyst for a peaceful and democratic transition in China. I wonder if he someday becomes the knight in shining armor that will checkmate the dragon.

Biologist and anthropologist Thomas Huxley said, “The chessboard is the world, the pieces are the phenomena of the Universe, the rules of the game are what we call the laws of Nature, and the player on the other side is hidden from us.”

Not until the Player on the other side of the Board says, “Game Over” does Ding Liren checkmate the dragon. This Irish saying strikes a chord: ”When the Chess game is over, the Pawn and the King go back to the same box.” The Bible’s Ecclesiastes 3:20, as if waving a red flag, is an apt passage for drawing this Sunday article to a close: "Everything's smoke. We all end up in the same place -- we all came from dust; we all end up as dust."

Have a blessed Sunday!

Content of this article put together in collaboration with Microsoft Bing AI-powered copilot

Head cartoon courtesy of South China Morning Post

Video clips courtesy of YouTube

ELECTRICITY AND AI: A TALE OF TWO DISCOVERIES

 

“AI is the new electricity.” (Andrew Ng, Founder and CEO of Landing AI)

What do a great musician and a great entrepreneur have in common? They are both great innovators who have changed the world with their creativity and vision. They are both leaders in their respective fields of entertainment and technology. They are both admired and respected by millions of people around the globe.

But they also share something else: quiet and unseen powers that have enabled and empowered their success. Powers that are so all-around and essential that we often take them for granted.

THE QUIET AND UNSEEN POWER BEHIND THE GREAT MUSICIAN

Standing on the stage, holding his guitar in his hands, he felt the adrenaline pumping through his veins as he heard the roar of the crowd. He was Paul McCartney, one of the most famous and influential musicians of all time. He had risen to fame as a member of the Beatles, the iconic band that revolutionized rock and roll in the 1960s. Yesterday, Hey Jude, and Let It Be are some of the most memorable songs in history he had written and sung.

Embarking on a solo career spanning decades and genres, he experimented with different styles of music – pop, rock, disco, and even classical. With his new band Wings, featuring his wife Linda on keyboards and vocals, he produced hit songs like Band on the Run and Live and Let Die.

Unlike his countless performance before, this was different – his first solo concert in the U.S. after the Beatles broke up. Wanting to prove himself by showing the world that he still had it, he felt nervous but also excited.

Playing the piano in his song, Maybe I’m Amazed, he filled the arena with his dramatic tenor voice amidst the clear music of his band. The crowd sang along. Smiling, he felt a surge of confidence. He was doing it. He was rocking the stage.

But McCartney was not performing alone. Behind him, behind the curtains, behind the walls, there was a quiet and unseen power that made it all possible – electricity. Electricity that powered his piano, his guitar, his microphone, his speakers, his lights. Electricity that allowed him to create various effects and sounds with pedals and synthesizers. Electricity that illuminated the stage with colorful lights. Electricity that connected him to the audience through video screens and cameras. Electricity that recorded his performance for posterity and broadcast to millions of viewers.

At that concert, without electricity, McCartney would be less than he was. He would be a man playing the silent piano and singing mutely in the dark. He would be as still as a statue and as quiet as a whisper.

I am not sure if McCartney knew, appreciated, and respected that reality. Maybe, the following lyrics of his song could drop a hint on what’s in his mind, if he’s referring to the theme of electricity:

Maybe, I’m amazed at the way you’re with me all the time

And maybe I’m afraid of the way I leave you

Maybe, I’m amazed at the way you help me sing my song

You right me when I’m wrong

Maybe, I’m amazed at the way I really need you.

THE QUIET AND UNSEEN POWER BEHIND THE GREAT ENTREPRENEUR

Driving on the road, holding his steering wheel in his hands, he felt a thrill of adventure as he saw the speedometer on his dashboard. He was Elon Musk, I imagine, who himself tested a Tesla, the revolutionary mobility system he developed and championed that could provide autonomous driving.

One of the most visionary and influential entrepreneurs of all time, he founded and led several groundbreaking companies, such as PayPal, SpaceX, Tesla, and Neuralink. He created and launched some of the most innovative products and services in history, such as online payments, reusable rockets, electric cars, and brain-computer interfaces. He had also invested in various fields of science and technology, such as biotechnology, and renewable energy.

Embarking on a new journey that was unlike anything he had driven before, he drove the car to explore and enjoy the world.  Looking sleek and stylish, like a sports car from the future, the car could run on batteries and solar power.

The car accelerated smoothly and quietly. Cruising on the road, he felt no jerks or noises, only a gentle breeze in his hair. He looked out the window and saw the scenery passing by – mountains, valleys, fields, cities. He could also see other Tesla cars driving along with him in harmony. It was incredible.

But Musk was not driving alone. Around him, around his car, around the road, there was a quiet and unseen power that made it all possible – AI. AI that powered the car’s battery, motor, sensors, and software. AI that powered the dashboard screen and speedometer. AI that controlled the steering, braking, acceleration, and navigation. AI that connected him to other Tesla cars through vehicle-to-vehicle communication, collision avoidance, platooning, and charging. AI that enhanced his journey through entertainment, information, comfort, and safety.

In that journey, without AI, a Tesla car would be nothing. It would be like a car in a junkyard as silent as a grave and as inanimate as a rock.

I am not sure if Musk knew, appreciated, and respected that reality. Maybe, his following quote could drop a hint at what’s in his mind:

“AI will be the best or worst thing ever for humanity.”

So far, his Tesla car has shown the prospect of the best thing ever for humanity. How about the worst? Let me share this following story again (cited in my previous ATABAY article ChatGPT: Threat or Opportunity?).

A smart kid decided in taking on the wise old man in the village with a question he’s cocksure the old man would be unable to answer correctly. Holding a little bird cupped in his hands behind his back, he asked the old man, ”Is the bird in my hands, alive or dead?” If the old man said the bird was alive, the boy would crush the bird with his hands. If the old man said it was dead, the boy would open his hands and let the bird fly.

The wise old man said, “The answer is in your hands.”

Let me go back to the question: What’s the worst thing will AI be ever for humanity? The answer is in our hands.

Content of this article put together in collaboration with Microsoft Bing AI-powered copilot

Head collage photos courtesy of Billboard, tech25sdotcom, Shutterstock, blogdotgoodaudiencedotcom, & Can Stock photos

Video clips courtesy of YouTube