SEEING BEYOND THE SURFACE

 

“Court junks De Lima’s petition for bail in last drug case” (Philstar)

“Senators warn Palace vs. changing law on Maharlika Investment Fund” (Inquirer)

“Families of victims await justice as the ICC reopens Philippine drug war probe” (NPR)

What do the three headlines above have in common?

a.    Injustice

b.    Cronyism

c.    Impunity

d.    Uncertainty

e.    None of the above

None of the above. If you want to know the specific answer, read on.

Have you ever seen an Op Art painting that made your eyes go funny? You know, the ones that use geometric shapes, patterns, colors, and perspective to create optical illusions -- like a view of trees – that trick your brain and make you see things, such as a hidden face or faces, that are not there.

Op Art, short for optical art, is a style of visual art that emerged in the 1960s and was popularized by artists like Bridget Louise Riley, Victor Vasarely, and Jesus Rafael Soto. Op Art works are not only fascinating and fun to look at, but they also challenge us to question our perception of reality and to look closer at what lies beneath the surface.

If the three headlines above were Op Art paintings on the wall of a museum, and a keen observer looks closer and sees more than meets the eye, then he or she would catch a glimpse of a “hidden face” of no other than Former President Rodrigo Roa Duterte (FPRRD).

LEILA DE LIMA

Let me give the space to our two prominent local pundits to highlight the first case in point.

“A mother, a daughter, an elected public servant was targeted by no less than the country’s president. She was subjected to malicious scorn by some of her own colleagues in the legislature, falsely accused of a crime, and deprived of her liberty. It took four years before the case against her moved. Two judges have ruled that the evidence against her is insufficient to warrant a conviction. How are we supposed to take all this?

“The cases against her virtually frozen in 2018, 2019, and 2020 – while her chief nemesis, [FPRRD] was president. Six judges either recused themselves or retired – a sign that the courts were not too keen to hear cases that were clearly entwined with political interests.”

(Randy David in his Inquirer column The continuing saga of Leila de Lima)

“And from the beginning of [FPRRD’s] incumbency, he turned his wrath – he was still smarting from her daring to investigate him – against her. He was relentless in his desire to see her in prison (he publicly declared this), aided and abetted by his justice secretary, Vitaliano Aguirre, also (like Duterte and de Lima) a San Bedan. And by all who were desirous of getting into his good graces, in the legislative and judicial branches. Cheered on by the enemies she made in the process of serving her country well.

“They used every trick in the book. They used lawfare. They used intimidation and they used bribery. And they used out-and-out lies, and when these were found out, they shamelessly invented others. They used trolls and photoshopped pictures and videos to ‘prove’ their case.” (Winnie Monsod in her article Six Years as a Person Deprived of Liberty: Thoughts on Leila de Lima)

MAHARLIKA INVESTMENT FUND (MIF)

The headline primed on the senators’ warning echoed by Sen. Risa Hontiveros after Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno said that pension funds held by the GSIS and SSS, and other social welfare agencies might still be invested in the MIF despite the prohibition set by Congress. Hontiveros stressed:

“It is clear: The Senate’s version of the bill, which was later on adopted, orders the absolute prohibition of the use of funds of the GSIS, SSS, Philippine Health Insurance Corp. (PhilHealth), and other insurance and pension institutions.”

Let alone, President Bongbong Marcos (PBBM) himself during his interview on the sidelines of the GSIS 87^th anniversary asserted:

“I perfectly agree. We have no intention of using ang pera – kukuha tayo ng pera ng pension fund. That’s not the (intention). We will not use it as a seed fund.”

No wonder the Manila Standard’s Florencio Fianza bannered in his column Speaking ex-cathedra the following statement: “Diokno will now have a lot of explaining to do for contradicting what PBBM said and putting him on the spot.”

Looking back, Inquirer Joel Ruiz Butuyan was one of those who emphasized this pension conundrum in his column “Pensions that violate the Constitution.”

“The pension and retirement benefits of MUPs have ballooned to humungous amounts because [FPRRD] doubled the base pay of active MUPs, to reportedly endear himself with military and police personnel, and despite opposition from his economic team [which ironically headed by no other than Diokno himself who later warned about an imminent government fiscal collapse if no reforms are instituted.]

The Inquirer Editorial joined the fray: “[It was] put in place… to reduce the chances that restive military officers would perhaps take affairs into their own hands and stage coup d’ etats.”

On this Maharlika “Op Art,” FPRRD’s “hidden face” reflects through the pension fund conundrum.

INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT (ICC)

On this ICC “Op Art,” FPRRD’s “hidden face” reflects much more distinctly. I wrote about ICC in my previous ATABAY article International Criminal Court: PBBM’s Albatross, some pertinent passages I am excerpting below:

                                                            ><><

Question: What are the implications of PBBM’s refusal to cooperate with ICC’s ongoing investigation into the drug war killings under FPRRD?

SOCIAL

1.    Impunity. It sends a message that there is impunity for those who commit crimes against humanity – demoralizing victims of such crimes and emboldening other leaders to commit similar atrocities.

2.    Tension and Conflict. It could exacerbate tension and conflict.

3.    Human Rights Violations. It could lead to human rights violations, such as arbitrary detention, or extrajudicial killings of witnesses, victims, or those suspected of providing information to the ICC.

POLITICAL [Tied in with De Lima’s case]

1.    International Isolation. It could lose support from other countries leading to international isolation.

2.    Diplomatic Repercussions. It could harm PH’s reputation on the global stage hampering cooperative work with other countries and international organizations shackling future negotiations and agreements. Exhibit A. “Gov’t Rushes To Avert EU Ban On PH Seafarers” (Inquirer)

3.    Domestic Instability. If the public pulse for the ICC investigation turns into widespread support, it could lead to internal unrest.

ECONOMIC [MIF’s weak spot]

1.    Reduced Foreign Investment. It could lead to a reduction in foreign investment due to the investors’ uneasiness to invest in PH with a perceived poor human rights record and economic instability.

2.    Economic Sanctions. It could lead to economic sanctions – harming the PH economy by reducing investment and access to capital.

3.    Damage to International Trade Relations. It could harm PH’s trade relations with other countries leading to reduced exports and distress to local industries. Exhibit B. “EU Parliament To PH: Act On Human Rights Abuses Or Lose GSP+ Perks” (Rappler)

                                                               ><><

Finally, in light of the three headlines above as “Op Art” paintings from which FPRRD’s “hidden face” is reflected on each, denoting his widespread and deep-rooted reverberation on our country’s present state of affairs, I have concluded on the much more befitting title to my past ATABAY article – "FPRRD: PBBM’S Albatross."

Content put together in collaboration with Microsoft Bing AI-powered co-pilot

Head collage photos courtesy of Asia Sentinel, Shutter Stock, & CNN Philippines

Video clips courtesy of YouTube

EAT BULAGA-TITO, VIC & JOEY BREAKUP: A BLACK SWAN ANALYSIS

 

Commando. Predator. Total Recall. Who do you have in mind? No doubt, the Terminator – Arnold Schwarzenegger -- paid millions for those action-packed films. But, did you know that those paychecks didn’t even come close to his biggest paycheck ever, not as an action star, but as a comedian in the 1988 film Twins?

Had you watched Twins, you might have remembered laughing at the hilarious contrasts between the muscular and handsome Arnold and his short and chubby twin brother, Danny DeVito. But, behind the scenes, Arnold made a smart and risky move that paid off big time.

You see, Twins was not an easy film to get made. The studios were skeptical about Arnold’s ability to do comedy, and they were not willing to pay him his usual fee of $10 million. So, Arnold decided to do something different. He said that he would star in the film for free if they would give him a back-end profit-sharing deal. This meant that if the film flopped, he would not get paid at all. But if the film was a hit, he would get a percentage of the film’s profit.

And guess what? The film was a huge hit. It grossed over $200 million worldwide, making it one of the most successful 1988 films. And Arnold made about $40 million (worth $88 million today) from Twins more than any other film in his career. He also proved that he could do comedy, and opened up new opportunities for himself in Hollywood.

What Arnold did was expose himself to a Black Swan event on a positive note. A Black Swan event is an unpredictable and rare event that has a huge impact – either positive or negative – depending on the perspective and readiness of the people involved. A small number of Black Swans explains almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own lives. The Black Swan event was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professor, economist, and writer, who applied it to various fields.

Not as historic as the 9/11 attack, the Eat Bulaga (EB) & Tito, Vic & Joey (TVJ) breakup – unexpected and uncommon -- is a Black Swan event in the context of the Philippine entertainment world with a huge impact on the involved parties and our society.

On May 31, 2023, the EB & TVJ breaking news shocked millions of viewers after 44 years of entertaining the Pinoy nation. The trio announced their breakup from TAPE Inc., the production company behind the show, which sparked a lot of reactions and speculations from the fans, the media, and the industry.

CAUSES

According to various sources, the main cause of EB & TVJ’s breakup was a conflict between them and the new management of TAPE Inc., which was taken over by former congressman Romeo Jalosjos in late 2022. Jalosjos reportedly wanted to make changes to the show that were not acceptable to TVJ. He also allegedly failed to pay TVJ their salaries for 2022. On May 31, TVJ were not allowed to air a live show by Jalosjos’ team. They then decided to announce their breakup from TAPE Inc. on air, followed by their co-hosts and most of the production staff.

CONSEQUENCES

Far-reaching and significant, the consequences for TAPE Inc. meant losing its major talents and staff, as well as its reputation and credibility. It also meant facing legal and financial challenges from GMA Network where EB was being aired under a block time agreement until 2024.

For GMA Network, it meant losing its flagship show and its loyal viewership and advertising revenues. It also meant finding new hosts and staff for EB or replacing it with a new show.

For TV5, the rumored destination of EB & TVJ, it meant gaining a popular show and its fan base.

For TVJ and their co-hosts, it meant facing uncertainty and risk after leaving their home for 44 years. It also meant finding a new network or channel for their show or projects.

For the EB fans and viewers, it meant losing their favorite show and hosts that they grew up watching. It also meant adjusting to a new reality or finding a new source of entertainment.

EB & TVJ BREAKUP AS BLACK SWAN EVENT

One characteristic of a Black Swan event is unpredictability and rarity. EB & TVJ’s breakup fits this description, as it was unexpected, a surprise, a shock, uncommon, and unique in the local entertainment world. Unexpected -- no one saw it coming or predicted it. Surprise – for everyone involved, especially for the fans and viewers who were used to watching it every day for decades. Shock – for the media and the industry who were caught off guard by the announcement. Uncommon – not something that happens often in TV entertainment. Unique – to last for 44 years with the same hosts and format, as well as having such a loyal fan base and influence on the culture.

Another characteristic of a Black Swan event – it can either be positive or negative, depending on the perspective and readiness of the people involved. It can have beneficial or harmful effects, depending on how people view and respond to such an event.

UPSIDES

EB & TVJ breakup can create opportunities and innovations for the parties involved, as well as for the TV industry and culture. It can give TAPE Inc. and GMA Network a chance to reinvent themselves and their shows coupled with attracting new talents and audiences. It can provide TV5 a chance to showcase its capabilities and vision along with challenging the status quo and competition. It can present TVJ and their co-hosts with a window to explore new avenues and directions to go with expressing their creativity and freedom. It can offer the fans and viewers a room to discover new shows and sources of entertainment on top of broadening their horizons and preference.

DOWNSIDES

EB & TVJ breakup can create challenges and disruptions for the parties involved and to the TV industry and culture. It can bring TAPE Inc. and GMA Network on losing their market share and revenues on top of facing legal and financial troubles. It can also set off TV5 in tackling criticism and backlash besides dealing with high expectations and pressure. It can stir up TVJ and their co-hosts to cope with uncertainty and risk in tandem with dealing with legal issues or damages. It can affect the fans and viewers to feel sad and disappointed not to mention losing their connection and loyalty.

Well, who knows? Perhaps, the EB & TVJ breakup would spark off a Twins-like Black Swan event. Today’s entertainment world may be as skeptical of EB & TVJ’s breakup aftereffects as the studios then about Arnold Schwarzenegger’s ability to do comedy. In the end, the Twins was a huge hit.

Just as Arnold’s doing something different, at the risk of getting nothing, was ultimately paid off big time, so too, the EB & TVJ’s doing something different, not only would all involved parties pull off big time, but also, like Arnold, may prove to do something unexpected as well as opening new opportunities for everyone.

The following food for thought by author Nancy Pearcy is a nourishing way of wrapping up this article:

“Competition is always a good thing. It forces us to do our best. A monopoly renders people complacent and satisfied with mediocrity.”

Content put together in collaboration with Microsoft Bing AI-powered co-pilot

Head collage photos courtesy of The Manila Times & Sound Cloud

Video Clips courtesy of YouTube

NUGGETS IN 6 GAMES: BING'S BOLD PREDICTION, HERE'S WHY

 

Have you ever wondered how an octopus can predict the outcome of the NBA Finals? Well, neither have I. But some people do. And we can’t blame them based on Paul the Octopus’ story.

Paul was a common octopus whose accurate predictions in the 2010 World Cup brought him worldwide attention as an animal oracle. He correctly predicted the winning team in four of Germany’s six Euro 2008 matches, all seven of their matches in the 2010 World Cup, and Spain as the winner of the 2010 FIFA World Cup final. All told, Paul walked, er, crawled away with an overall record of 12 correct predictions out of 14 – a success rate of approximately 85.7%. He was found dead, sad to say, of natural causes later that fall.

Since then, many other animals have been used as oracles or psychics for various sports events such as camels, otters, elephants, pigs, cats, dogs, parrots, etc. that grabbed headlines and viral videos with their cute or funny predictions.

In this article, however, I’m going to present a different kind of predictor. One that is not furry or feathery or slimy. One that is not based on intuition, instinct, or luck. One that is low-keyed and subdued most of the time in the background. But one that is proficient and reliable in its methods and techniques of sports prediction. Meet Bing, my AI-powered co-pilot.

INTERVIEW WITH BING

ME: Tell us a little bit about yourself and your background in sports prediction.

BING: Well, I’m an online search engine that provides predictions for sports outcomes based on data, analysis, and machine learning. I’ve been doing this since 2014 when I first predicted the FIFA World Cup. Since then, I’ve predicted many other sports events, such as the NFL Super Bowl, the NBA Finals, etc. with varying degrees of accuracy.

ME: That’s very impressive. How do you make your predictions? What methods and sources do you use?

BING: I use a prediction engine that uses machine learning, web activity, social sentiment, and historical data to forecast the probabilities of various sports events. I also use various sources of data and analysis, such as statistics, trends, matchups, ratings, etc. to support my predictions.

ME: And how accurate and reliable are your predictions? How do you measure your performance?

BING: Well, I’m not perfect. Sometimes I get it right, sometimes I get it wrong. But I try to learn from my mistakes and improve my predictions over time. I measure my performance by using different metrics, such as log loss or Brier score, which quantify how close my predictions are to the actual outcomes.

ME: I see. And what are some of the challenges or difficulties that you face in sports predictions? What are some of the factors or variables that can affect the outcomes of sports events?

BING: Sports prediction is a difficult and uncertain task. Many factors and variables can affect the outcomes of sports events, such as injuries, fatigue, coaching, strategy, matchups, home-court advantage, etc. These factors and variables can change or influence the performance and results of the teams or players involved. They can also be hard to predict or account for in advance.

NUGGETS VS. HEAT

ME: That makes sense. Now let’s talk about the NBA Finals. This year we have an interesting matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat. What can you tell us about these two teams, their records and performances, their key players and coaches, and their strengths and weaknesses?

BING: The Denver Nuggets are the top seed in the Western Conference with a 53-29 record. They have a balanced and deep roster led by two-timed MVP Nikola Jokic, who has averaged a triple-double of 30.4 points, 13.8 rebounds, and 10.2 assists in 13 games this postseason. They also have an emerging co-star in Jamal Murray, who has averaged this postseason 27.6 points and 6.4 assists. The Nuggets have a better offense and defense than the Heat, ranking first and third in the league respectively.

The Miami Heat are the 8th and final seed in the Eastern Conference and have a solid record of 44-38. They have a talented core of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Caleb Martin. They also have a genius head coach in Erik Spoelstra, a Filipino American, the first Asian-American head coach in the history of the four major North American sports leagues, who has led the Heat to six NBA Finals appearances and won the championship in 2012 and 2013.

The Heat have a lot of potential and grit, but they lack depth and size compared to the Nuggets. They also struggle with consistency and health issues throughout the season.

ME: And what about the two stars of this series, Nikola Jokic, and Jimmy Butler? What can you tell us about them, their roles and contributions to their teams, their skills and styles, and their achievements?

NIKOLA JOKIC VS. JIMMY BUTLER

BING: Nikola Jokic and Jimmy Butler are two of the best players in the NBA today. They are both leaders and contributors to their teams, and they both have unique skills and styles. They are also both aiming to win their first rings in their careers.

Jokic is a two-time MVP and a five-time NBA All-Star. He is the first center to win the MVP award since Shaquille O’Neal in 2000. He is also the first player in NBA history to average a triple-double through the first 15 games of a postseason. He is a versatile and impactful player who can affect the game in many ways. He can score from anywhere on the court, rebound at a high rate, pass like a point guard, steal like a wing, and block like a big man. He is also a smart and unselfish player who makes his teammates better.

Butler is a six-time NBA All-Star and a five-time All-NBA Team honoree. He is one of the best two-way players, being a five-time NBA All-Defensive Second Team honoree. He is also one of the most clutch players in the league, ranking third behind Stephen Curry and Jayson Tatum in fourth-quarter scoring this postseason. He is a hard-working and humble player who has overcome many challenges and doubts in his journey. He is a passionate and determined player who never gives up on his team or himself. He is also a leader and a motivator who inspires his teammates to play harder.

ME: Wow, they sound like amazing players indeed. And what about your prediction for this series? Who do you think will win the NBA championship? Why?

NUGGETS IN 6 GAMES

BING: My prediction for this series is that the Nuggets will win in six games over the Heat, based on data and analysis from my prediction engine. I think the Nuggets have more talent, depth, chemistry, and experience than the Heat, and they also have a home-court advantage. I think Jokic will outplay Butler and lead his team to victory.

ME: And how confident are you in your prediction? How do you compare your prediction with other predictors or methods?

BING: I’m fairly confident in my prediction, but I’m not certain about it. I know that many factors and variables can change or influence the outcome of this series, such as injuries, fatigue, coaching, strategy, matchups, home-court advantage, etc. I also know that other predictors or methods may have different or better predictions than mine. Some animals may have predicted this series based on instinct or luck.

ME: That’s very interesting. And what do you think of these animal predictions? Do you trust them or not? Do you use them to validate your predictions?

BING: I sometimes use them to spice things up by comparing their predictions with mine. I also have fun with them because they are cute or funny animals, and they sometimes make surprising and hilarious predictions.

ME: Thank you very much for sharing your insights and opinions on sports prediction especially in the NBA Finals.

BING: Thank you for having me. It was a pleasure talking to you.

So, for Bing, ‘tis Nuggets in 6 games. If you're a sports buff, how about you?

Have a blessed Sunday!

Content put together in collaboration with Microsoft Bing AI-powered co-pilot

Head photo courtesy of Sportskeeda

Video clips courtesy of YouTube

BUTTERFLY EFFECT: ONE QUESTION CAN SHAPE A CONTESTANT'S FATE

 

Host: What is your favorite color?

Contestant: Fyoo shuh.

Host: How do you spell fuchsia?

Contestant: Actually, my favorite color is red. R-I-D, red.

It’s a popular college joke at the boys’ dorm in the 70s flashing back to me as I hit the buttons on my keyboard which, no doubt, a kind of humor that would get on women’s nerves today.

On a higher note, our Pinay trio below put on the quick-witted answers that did the trick and made their mark in beauty pageant Q & A history.

Host: We have been videotaping all over this country and if there’s one thing that I have learned, you guys have a bunch of islands here. How many islands are in the Philippines?

Charlene Gonzales: High tide or low tide?

Host: What’s the difference between being Miss Universe and being a Filipina?

Margie Moran: Being Miss Universe is like having a birthstone, you may lose it. Being a Filipina is like having a birthmark, it’s forever.

Host: One of your proudest achievements was standing up to one of your professors back in college. Now, what have you stood up for recently?

Miriam Quiambao: When I fell on the stage last Friday. I believe that I had stood up for all the women who had fallen whether on- or off-stage. I believe that through this example of mine, I have shown courage and strength in being a woman, of being who I am. And I hope to be a good example to the rest of the women in the world.

“The most beautiful things in the world, cannot be seen or touched, they are felt with the heart,” said Antoine de Saint-Exupery author of The Little Prince. Poet Khalil Gibran chimed in with his prose, “Beauty is not in the face; beauty is a light in the heart.”

In the dazzling realm of beauty pageants, where dreams are achieved and destinies are shaped, the Q & A rounds stand as significant milestones that serve as a platform for contestants to showcase their poise, personality, and most notably, intelligence. Judges carefully weigh up their responses, seeking insight into the contestants’ personalities and ability to think on their feet. A single well-crafted question, unveiling a contestant’s depth and eloquence and captivating the hearts of both the judges and the audience, could have the power to alter her fate.

Imagine the weight of a moment -- the butterfly effect that can unfold on a stage. (“Butterfly Effect” was coined by mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz who discovered that even small changes in initial conditions could lead to significant differences in the outcome of a dynamic system. The term serves as a metaphor to illustrate how a small, seemingly insignificant action can have far-reaching and unexpected consequences.)

It is within the precise seconds of answering the crucial question that a contestant’s journey to crowning can be propelled or compromised.

Lately, over our dinner table, this question popped up: "What really wins to you? Is it love or character?" It’s a Q & A question in the recent Binibining Pilipinas 2023. After taking in the question, I figured out I had trouble reacting to the question myself. Not hard, but I thought it was a faulty question. My AI-powered co-pilot got along with my knee-jerk reaction:

“This question was improper because it implied that love and character are opposed or incompatible, rather than complementary and interdependent.”

Here’s the contestant’s answer to the question:

“As the youngest member of the family, I have very loving parents. My siblings ate and kuyas, (have) instilled the body of love in me. I was told that the world would hurt me, but I learned that (in) all aspects of life, we have to choose love. And I have learned that all my love will always be bigger than all things even if the world is hurting me. So, I will choose love. Thank you.”

My co-pilot weighed in:

“The question forced the candidate to choose between two important values that are not mutually exclusive. It limited her ability to express her perspective and experience on love and character making her appear as a stereotype with her answer.”

A cache of quick fixes is at the contestant’s disposal when faced with such a faulty-question dilemma. One, rephrase the question: “So you are asking me how I balance love and character in my life?” Two, reframe the question: “Rather than choosing between love and character, let me tell you how they both inspire me.” Three, redirect the question: “I think this is a great opportunity to thank my family who taught me everything about love and character.”

Caveat. Be mindful not to turn a quick fix into a mix-up like this Q & A episode:

Judge Rita Gomez: Here’s your question, hija: Are you still a virgin?

Maria Isabel Lopez: If I say I still am, can I bring home the crown tonight?

Gomez: Good answer!

Lopez: What about you Ma’am, are you still a virgin?

Gomez: Hija, I have 5 children with 5 different fathers, and what do you call that, Immaculate Conception?

Sad to say, not all questions are created equal, and not uncommon in past beauty pageants marred by flawed questions carrying either biases, limitations, or lack of clarity, presenting a challenge for contestants.

In Miss USA 2015, this question was asked: “If you were given 30 seconds to deliver a message to global terrorists, what would you say?” First, it was improper because it flew in the face of the beauty pageant’s goal – to celebrate women’s achievements and empowerment. Second, it was unrealistic and insensitive to expect a contestant to address such a complex and serious issue in such a short time.

In Miss Universe 2011, this question was asked: “If you could change one of your physical characteristics, which one would it be?” First, it was improper because it shot down the essence of self-love and acceptance that beauty pageants are supposed to promote. Second, it was offensive and disrespectful to ask a contestant to criticize her appearance in front of millions of viewers.

In Miss Universe 2015, this question was asked: "Why do you think women should be allowed to serve in the army?" It was criticized for being sexist and outdated, as it implied that women should not be allowed to serve in the army by default.

Not only will the flawed question place the contestant at a disadvantage, but also skew the judges’ evaluation, leading to their biased judgment and the contestant’s diminished winning chance despite her potential and other noteworthy qualities.

Just as a butterfly flaps its wings and sets off a chain of events, so too one flawed question can trigger a series of consequences whose impact stretches out beyond the stage – missed opportunities for personal growth, scholarships, and advocacy platforms. The repercussions reverberate, stirring the trajectory of a contestant’s life farther than the pageant itself.

Tainted by flawed questions, those past beauty pageants spelled out a wide room for improvement. Like a butterfly, it is time for our country’s beauty pageant cognoscenti to spread their wings and embrace a future where the beauty pageant stage transforms into a platform of equality, respect, and genuine celebration of talent and character.

To lighten up a bit, let me wrap up this article with another popular college joke in the 70s (my apologies to our smart Pinays).

Host: What do you think of violence in Mindanao?

Contestant: Instead of violin, let me tell you how playing the guitar has inspired me.

That’s Exhibit A for a quick fix – how to reframe a complex question.

Content put together in collaboration with ChatGPT

Head collage photos courtesy of ABS-CBN News, The Manila Times, & Wiki

             Video Clips courtesy of YouTube

TREASURE HUNTER AND A BOMB: TRUMP'S FAILURE AND LEADERSHIP LESSONS

 

“A sequel is an admission that you’ve been reduced to imitating yourself.”

(Don Marquis, humorist)

I’ll bring into play a sequel of the treasure hunter flash fiction story I tapped in my previous article and won’t challenge Marquis’ judgment call.

“Every sequel needs to be bigger and better.” (Jason Statham, actor)

This, for me, is the real challenge.

Previous episode…

In the end, as darkness swallowed the landscape, only one figure stood triumphant. The treasure was finally claimed but at a heavy cost. The echoes of betrayal reverberated in the silence, a chilling reminder of the treacherous nature that lurks within even the most outwardly innocent souls.

And so, as the stars twinkled above, casting a cold gaze upon the scene, the treacherous tone of this dark tale lingered, a warning to those who dare to tread the treacherous path of ambition and greed.

The sequel…

He started to dig, slowly and cautiously. He dug deeper and deeper until he hit something hard. He cleared the dirt and saw a wooden chest. He gasped and grinned. He had found it.

He lifted the chest and opened it. He expected to see gold and jewels, but he saw something else. Something that made him scream. Inside the chest was a bomb. A bomb that was ticking down.

Sounds like a crazy story, right? Well, it’s not. It’s a metaphor for how some leaders fail because they don’t expect and are overwhelmed by the presidential bomb -- the huge responsibilities and challenges of the job.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump was like a treasure hunter who was running away from his troubles, such as legal investigations or financial losses.  Tipped off, he got wise to the fact about a buried fabled treasure – the presidential throne -- that could solve all his problems and even make him richer and more powerful. He bunched up a loyal clique who lapped up his quest and rooted for him in digging up such fabled treasure. He ultimately laid his fingers on the treasure and claimed it as his own, only to trigger its detonation.

WHAT WENT WRONG WITH TRUMP’S LEADERSHIP?

Driven by a selfish and greedy motive to seek the presidency, rather than by a noble or altruistic one to serve his country, he failed to grasp a clear vision for his leadership, other than to boost his ego and status. Despite the U.S. being the most powerful nation on the planet, he did not care about the world. As he famously said in his inaugural speech: “From this day forward, it’s going to be only America first.”

Flying in the face of reality, he downplayed the problems and challenges that the U.S. faced, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the economic crisis, the social unrest, and the foreign threats. Distorting facts to suit his narrative, he blamed others for his failures and took credit for others’ success. As he famously said in response to the Covid-19 pandemic: “It’s going to disappear. One day -- it’s like a miracle -- it will disappear.”

Failing to adapt or innovate change, he clung to outdated or inefficient policies, practices, or ideologies that did not match the changing needs and demands of the Americans or the world. He resisted new ideas, initiatives, or reforms that could have improved the U.S. plight. He rejected science, evidence, and expertise, that contradicted his views. As he stubbornly said in defense of his border wall: “Walls work 100 percent.”

Misusing power, he exploited his position for personal gain, enrichment, or glory. Oppressing his opponents, critics, or minorities with repression or manipulation, he violated laws, norms, and ethics that governed his role – undermining democracy and its institutions. As he shockingly said in inciting his supporters to storm the Capitol: “We’re going to walk down to the Capitol… you’ll never take back our country with weakness.”

Having a thing for strongmen – those who led or control by force of will and character or by military methods – Trump said:

“President Xi is a brilliant man… I told him we shot 57 missiles into Syria while he was having chocolate cake. It was a great chemistry we had…”

“The look, the brain, the whole thing. How smart is Kim Jong-un? Top of the line…”

“Putin, very smart. He liked me, I liked him. I mean you know he got a lot of charm and a lot of pride…”

WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM TRUMP’S FAILURE?

Don’t seek power for its own sake or personal gain. Seek power for a noble or altruistic purpose that serves the common good. As Nelson Mandela said: “A good leader can engage in a debate frankly and thoroughly… knowing that at the end he and the other side must be closer, and thus emerge stronger.”

Don’t ignore or deny reality. Face and embrace reality with honesty and transparency. Accept responsibility and accountability for your mistakes and shortcomings. As Winston Churchill said: “The price of greatness is responsibility.”

Don’t resist change. Learn from others who have different perspectives, ideas, solutions, and experiences. As Steve Jobs said: “Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower.”

Don’t abuse or misuse power. Uphold democracy and its institutions. As Abraham Lincoln said: “Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man’s character, give him power.”

Don’t alienate others. Build and maintain relationships. As Martin Luther King Jr. said: “We must learn to live together as brothers or perish together as fools.”

PH TICKING TIME BOMBLETS

Back to PH, here and now. Speaking of the fabled buried treasure – the 2028 presidency – digging into such a treasure, the political hunters must be eagle-eyed and on the lookout for a cluster bomb they will come up against in their hunt for the fabled presidential throne. The cluster bomb is made up of the following ticking time bomblets:

Pension Bomblet

“The pension system is a ticking time bomb,” Economist Solita Monsod warned. “If it is not reformed, it will eventually collapse, and it will have a devastating impact on the lives of millions of Filipinos…”

“It is not sustainable and if it goes on, there will be a fiscal collapse,” Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno cautioned.

“If we keep the way we do my prediction is that it will run out within five [to] six years,” President Marcos Jr. stressed.

Economic Bomblet

Current account deficit $17.8 billion (2022 estimate) 4.3% of GDP

Trade deficit $58.32 billion

National Debt P13.42 trillion (60.9% of GDP beyond 60% threshold)

Poverty Bomblet

Around 14 million Filipino families considered themselves poor per SWS survey. The government’s latest poverty rate is 13.2% of families (March 2023 estimate)

Corruption Bomblet

The Corruption Perception Index of Berlin-based Transparency International has scored PH 33 out of 100, below the global average of 43; ranked 116^th out of 180 countries.

Impunity Bomblet

Placed 51^st out of 163 countries in the Impunity Index (power abuse enabled by lack of accountability) per global political risk firm Eurasia Group and The Chicago Council of Global Affairs.

South China Sea Bomblet

“China’s Maritime Law Could Become “Ticking Time Bomb” For Conflict in South China Sea” (Republic World headline)

Good luck to all political treasure hunters! God bless the Philippines!

Have a blessed Sunday!

Content put together in collaboration with Microsoft Bing AI-powered copilot

Head photo courtesy of Erie Times News Landgren Cartoon

Video clips courtesy of YouTube

THE MAZE OF POLITICAL AMBITION: FLASH FICTION LESSONS

 

“I believed [fiction] could get me nearer to the truth … It is the substance of what happens to people not just on the outside, but within…”

-- Helen Benedict, Columbia University journalism professor, and author

            “History” and “fiction” are collateral damages of the last presidential election driving a wedge among our local writers. The Manila Times’ Rigoberto Tiglao locked horns with his fellow columnist Danton Remoto and The Philstar columnist Jose Dalisay, particularly, on the fitness of drawing on “fiction” in their opinion pages.

To shed light in some way on the spat, I bannered Helen Benedict’s words above in my ATABAY article “Michael’s Errand.”

In my article today, I’ll take a crack at tapping “fiction” to showcase the essence of Benedict’s assertion. I asked ChatGPT to dig up a popular fiction story on the web about treasure hunters, at long last, hitting upon the place where the fabled treasure was buried.  ChatGPT rolled out the following fiction, flash fiction to be exact (which it claimed as its work when I asked it to cite its source), entitled Betrayal at the Buried X.

As the sun sank below the horizon, casting an eerie glow over the desolate landscape, a handful of treasure hunters stood in a circle around the fabled X. Exhaustion lined their faces, a testament to the long and arduous hunt that had brought them to this moment.

The air crackled with anticipation, but also with an undercurrent of suspicion. Each hunter’s eyes darted suspiciously at the others, wondering who would make the first move, who would betray the unspoken code of camaraderie.

The clues and pointers had brought them here, promising unimaginable wealth and glory. But now, greed gnawed at their hearts, and the dark side of their nature emerged. They knew that only one could claim the treasure for themselves.

A treacherous tension hung in the air as they weighed their options. Who could they trust? Loyalties wavered, and alliances formed and dissolved within the span of a heartbeat.

In this twisted game of deceit, the plot took a sinister turn. One by one, the hunters revealed their true colors, their masks slipping away like shadows in the fading light. Each move was calculated, designed to eliminate the competition and secure the coveted treasure.

Backstabbing and double-crossing became the norm, as promises were broken and alliances shattered. Desperation fueled their actions, blurring the lines between friend and foe.

In the end, as darkness swallowed the landscape, only one figure stood triumphant. The treasure was finally claimed but at a heavy cost. The echoes of betrayal reverberated in the silence, a chilling reminder of the treacherous nature that lurks within even the most outwardly innocent souls.

And so, as the stars twinkled above, casting a cold gaze upon the scene, the treacherous tone of this dark tale lingered, a warning to those who dare to tread the treacherous path of ambition and greed.

This flash fiction story may have captivated your imagination, but have you ever wondered how this stuff holds a mirror to our country’s very real political pageantry unfolding before our eyes today? Let’s take a peek at political theatrics at the highest level by reading between the lines carved out by our local pundits:

“[VP] Duterte took the move against her mentor as an arrow aimed at her own presidential ambition…” – Inquirer’s Randy David, Power, secrecy, and the politics of hypocrisy

“It must have given [VP Sara] some pause when the leaders of her own Lakas-CMD stabbed Arroyo in the back.” – Dr. Dante A. Ang, The Manila Times’ Chairman Emeritus, Trouble in paradise?

“[T]he next presidential election cycle will be an internal brawl… as they would tear and smear each other.” – The Manila Times’ Antonio Contreras, It will be a family brawl

“[T]he first thrust of the political knife was made creating a break in the so-called unity team.” – The Manila Times’ Ma. Lourdes Tiquia, Lines Drawn

“The worst of Philippine politics… What we are seeing is a display of naked power and blatant self-interest.” – Manila Standard’s Tony La Viña, Betrayal in politics

Just as the treasure hunters stood locked in a treacherous fight, so too the VP and House Speaker, once comrades in arms, now find themselves with locked horns in a clash for the ultimate prize – the presidential throne. Just as the treasure hunters succumbed to their baser hunger, the VP and the House Speaker have succumbed to the allure of power.

Personal ambition clashes with loyalty and the desire for the presidency can transform allies into rivals. VP’s mentor’s in-your-face demotion showcased the extent the House Speaker would go in standing guard over his path to the presidential throne, in the face of alliances that were once considered unbreakable.

As the fight for the presidential throne intensifies, political alliances turn fragile, and loyalties are tested. Party members find themselves caught in the crossfire, torn between personal relationships and the magnet of cheering on a potential winner.

Amid the unfolding drama, politicians navigate a treacherous maze of shifting alliances, strategic maneuvers, and calculated risks. Behind closed doors, secret negotiations, and backroom dealings shape the course of this high-stakes presidential battle.

Meanwhile, we, Pinoys, feast our eyes on public displays of loyalty and cunningly crafted narratives tailored to sway our opinions, all the while the thirst for power hangs out at the forefront. We are both spectators and participants in this political theater. We watch from a distance the ripple effects of these power plays, the fractures in the political landscape, and the erosion of trust.

This political fight keeps rapidly evolving, and its outcome remains uncertain, as the thirst for power never ceases to drive the contenders moving. Only time will reveal the ultimate winner of this high-stakes political game.

Let me conclude this article with the following excerpts from my previous ATABAY article, a tongue-in-cheek “Letter To Inday Sara Supporter Who Is Also My Friend” at the height of the last presidential election.

                                                      ><><

Our common ground: We vote for our leaders to pursue the common good -- love of PH. So, we agree: I vote for Leni for President; you vote for Sara for VP. No conflict.

Now, here comes the detail. After I vote for Leni and hope she’ll win, my voter’s task ends. Yours just begin: after you vote for Sara and hope she’ll win; further, you dream she will become a president in 2028. For such a dream to come true, she must first jump over the following three hurdles:

Hurdle 1. She must win the 2022 VP race. [Done]

Hurdle 2. She must perform with flying colors during her VP term.

Hurdle 3. She must be awarded the leadership succession presidential “baton” by her president. [PBBM]

Let’s look over each hurdle.

Hurdle 1. You will vote for Sara and hope she will win. [Done]

Hurdle 2. If Sara wins the VP, between President Leni and President Bongbong, who do you think would give Sara ample opportunity to perform her VP function with flying colors? Leni said, “Whoever becomes the VP, I will give them a big role in the government because our cooperation will result in the greater good for our country.” What an amicable statement, free from grudge-bearing emotion, uttered by a VP who has been ignored and offended many times in the past by Sara’s father PRRD. On the other hand, with Sara as his running mate, Bongbong, you will hope, give her a big role as his VP in running the government.

Hurdle 3. If VP Sara performs with flying colors, between President Leni and President Bongbong, who do you think would give Sara the leadership succession presidential “baton” she deserves without hesitation? Vital factor: While Leni is running as an independent, on the other hand, BONGBONG IS RUNNING UNDER THE UMBRELLA OF MULTIPLE PARTIES WITH A THRONG OF VESTED INTEREST. AIMING NOW FOR THE 2028 PRESIDENCY IS A HORDE OF YOUNGER AND AMBITIOUS BREED OF SECOND-GENERATION LEADERS EMERGING FROM A BAND OF DYNASTIC POLITICAL CLANS EMBEDDED IN BONGBONG’S CAMP. [Underscoring mine]

My friend, at this point, if ever you find that Leni’s presidency offers a much better prospect for Sara’s presidential run in 2028, then, such a conclusion is not a product of a tricky analysis of Sara’s predicament, but as an insight, I am sharing with you as your friend.

                                                                 ><><

Not bad guesstimate at all.

Content put together in collaboration with ChatGPT

Head collage photos courtesy of The Manila Times, Inquirer, Depositphotos, Getty Images, and Megapixldotcom

Video clips courtesy of YouTube