MY TWO CENTS WORTH OF VIEW: PH 2022 ELECTION DYNAMICS

 

Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence. – John Adams

Fact 1. Pinoy voters choose a popular candidate.

A 1995 study, updated in 2003, by the Institute for Political and Electoral Reform identified the above leading factor which may only change when the following underlying conditions undergo transformation:

Electorate Profile:

5 in 10 unemployed

4 in 10 high school graduates

6 in 10 class C & D

General Profile:

1 in 4 below the poverty line

Perceptions of Electoral Integrity Index (Sydney & Harvard U.S.)

58.8 on a 0 to 100 scale (PH 76^th out of 107 countries)

The above figures exclude the impact of the pandemic and the downward spiral of the economy due to lockdowns.

Fact 2. A survey is the most effective campaign medium that projects popularity nationwide.

The fact holds although surveys are unreliable. New York Times headlined: "A Black Eye: Why Political Polling Missed the Mark. Again" in the US 2020 election. Pew Research Center explained why election surveys missed such mark. "Nonresponse bias" was the culprit in both elections (2016 and 2020) generated by an "unrepresentative sample" – a flawed survey condition.

Close to PH home, one pundit explained: "Interviews are conducted face-to-face. The respondent's name and address are known to the interviewer. The interviewer's true purpose may be suspect to the respondent." UP Professor Randy David wrote: "A sizeable majority of those surveyed admit to being afraid that they could be indiscriminately tagged as drug offenders." Amid the culture of fear as an offshoot of the war on drugs, most Pinoys have refused to answer surveys – a phenomenon called "bystander apathy." Leon F. Seltzer, Ph.D. of Psychology Today said they are "demotivated and lacking enthusiasm ... they don't care that they don't care." A Pinoy with "bystander apathy" most likely will respond "I'm not interested" when invited to participate in a survey – a chunk of such non-responders will result in a "nonresponse bias" that will bring about unreliable survey results.

Fact 3. Many Pinoys believe the unreliable surveys.

Voters: Who are the popular candidates?

Survey: Here are the popular candidates.

Voters voted for them and they won.

Public: Was the recent election credible?

Survey: Survey corroborated it.

A survey is a device that influences public opinion Peter Hitchens asserted in his book "The Broken Compass" that results in a "bandwagon" effect. This occurs when the survey prompts voters to back the candidates shown to be winning in such a biased survey – a case of having a cake and eat it too.

To the bitter end, surveys could impact the whole election landscape. The voters will vote for the popular (first factor) candidate and endorsed (second factor based on study) by traditional networks and organizations of financers, backers, and special interests groups with varying agendas. The catch-22 irony: most endorsers themselves also hinge on the survey results.

Real Clear Politics in the US gets its average figure from the top 10 of droves of surveys by averaging pollsters like Reuters, Rasmussen, Economist, Politico, Gallup, GU Politics, IBD/TIPP, The Hill, NBC/Wall Street Journal, and NPR/PBS/Marist, among others. PH puts its whole eggs in one SWS/Pulse Asia basket.

Many years ago, a case against Social Weather Station (SWS) and Pulse Asia was filed by Sen. Richard Gordon for releasing pre-election survey results. He said:

We filed the case today and asked for a temporary restraining order (TRO) on all their surveys. These surveys serve no public purpose except to rob the people of their right to be able to engage in a mental exercise where they can gauge their candidate's capability. It is mental conditioning in no uncertain terms.

We have been damaged. The country has been damaged. I'm not interested in the money, otherwise, I would have asked for P100 million so I can give more to the Red Cross. I am protecting the public. The public must be made to think through the exercise of the most important right in a democracy -- to vote wisely.

In that particular case, Sen. Gordon asserted that SWS and Pulse Asia "refused to disclose the details of their procedures." Aside from sample size and margin of error, both "failed and refused to disclose the sponsors who commissioned them, the methodology and sample design used in the surveys, the questions asked, and the order they were asked."

Breaking news: A group of Catholic schools is pressing voter's education especially among the youth sector. Recent data showed 1.1 million new voters have been registered. Is this a silver lining behind the 2022 election cloud? Only God knows.

After reading this article, how do you feel? Apathetic? Discouraged? What's the best? "Facts don't care about your feelings." (Ben Shapiro)

Here's the crucial fact: we will choose the next leader of our country. Let not a handful of survey respondents decide for us the fate of more than 100 million Pinoys.