A QUIET BIRTHDAY GIFT TO VP LENI

 

“Just show up and things will happen.” (Mother Teresa)

VP Leni’s Pasay Rally:

Organizer’s estimate   - 400,000+

NCRPO’s estimate      -   70,000 to 80,000

Marcos Jr.’s Sampaloc Rally:

MPD’s estimate            -   14,000

JACOB’S METHOD

Not only will crowd estimate spark controversy, but also it is difficult to compute. Estimating the crowd is critical, especially in the election campaign rallies where the number of people who shows up in the rally carries a crucial political significance. In the U.S. for example, the Washington, D.C. Park Police, according to Wikipedia, was threatened with a lawsuit for announcing that only 400,000 people attended The 1995 Million Man March.

Let’s evaluate VP Leni’s Pasay Rally which is easy because of the rectangular flat area of the Macapagal Boulevard rally site in Pasay City. We will use the most common method known as Jacob’s Method which factors in crowd density values as specified by Dr. Sabrina Stierwalt, Professor of Physics at Occidental College:

“The most tightly packed crowd, known officially as ‘mosh pit density,’ has one person per 2.5 square feet [or 4.3 persons per square meter.] This is the sort of crowd where, if you were able to pick your feet off the ground, you’d be so squished by those around you that you’d probably stay upright just fine. This density of people is considered a strict upper limit – any crowd counts that allot less space per person are not considered physically possible. A more breathable crowd puts one person per 4.5 square feet [or 2.39 persons per square meter] which still places you elbow to elbow with your neighbors. A light crowd might have one person per 10 square feet [or 1.08 person per square meter].”

CROWD ESTIMATE ASSESSMENT

Organizer’s Estimate:

Given:

Length: 2.5 kilometers or 2,500 meters occupied

Width: 8 lanes x 3.7 meters/lane = 29.6 meters

Total Area: 2,500 x 29.6 = 74,000 square meters or 7.4 hectares

Assumptions:

1. Applied 3.9 persons per square meter lower than the “mosh pit density” value for breathing space allowance

2. Assumed 40% crowd overflow on both sides of the boulevard

Calculations:

On boulevard:

Estimated number of people: 74,000 x 3.9 = 288,600

40% crowd overflow:

Estimated number of people: 74,000 x 3.9 x 0.40 = 115,440

Total Estimated Number of People = 404,040

NCRPO Estimate:

Crowd density value = 70,000 /74,000 = 0.95 person per square meter

This value indicates less than a light crowd.

The final figure of 404,040 will change (higher or lower) depending on the answers to the following questions:

1. Are the boulevard specifications (8 lanes @ 3.7/lane wide) correct?

2. Are the two assumptions valid vis-à-vis the actual situation?

3. Does the final figure matches the drone view of the actual event?

Not to fact check both the rally organizer and NCRPO’s estimates, this article will bring to light the glaring reality that has not caught the eye of the media. While VP Leni’s rally was going on in Pasay, a similar event was taking place in Sampaloc – Marcos Jr.’s rally. This affords us a rare opportunity to compare the two rallies since both occurred on the same night of the same day in the National Capital Region. Placing VP Leni’s rally crowd side by side with that of Marcos Jr.’s crowd of 14,000, one of the following banners could have been the “Breaking News” the next day -- the essence of which is a quiet birthday gift to VP Leni:

QUIET BIRTHDAY GIFT

“VP Leni’s Rally Beats 5-Fold Marcos Jr’s Crowd” (based on NCRPO’s VP Leni’s 70,000 estimate)

 “VP Leni’s Rally Dwarfs 28-Fold Marcos Jr’s Crowd” (based on VP Leni’s organizer’s 400,000+ estimate)

While most, if not all, saw the resounding multitude who came to VP Leni’s Pasay rally that day as a “pink explosion gift” for her birthday, perhaps, only a handful might have noticed such a quiet but pivotal gift of the "Breaking News" for her that day. The striking contrast between the two rallies could have been highlighted by the two drone shots of the breathtaking views of the actual happening on the ground. Marcos Jr.’s crowd seemed to have no drone shot. Otherwise, it would look too pathetic in contrast to that of VP Leni’s crowd – negating his survey’s frontrunner status and degrading his operatives’ mind-conditioning propaganda of “game over” and “landslide” projections.

All the more one would wonder with the extraordinary phenomenon of the multitude who showed up in VP Leni’s rallies. I recall a past column “Power Point” by Manila Standard’s Elizabeth Angsioco’s who wondered:

“I have never seen a campaign where people willingly volunteer their time, talent, and resources freely. Artists and graphic designers come up with Leni and Kiko campaign material designs for free and post the same for anyone to use. Using available designs, people spend their own money to produce tarpaulins, stickers, comics, ballers, shirts, fans, bags, and other paraphernalia. They then distribute these for free…What is amazing is that people who do not personally know each other respond, share resources, and work together on this campaign.”

GOD-INSPIRED

Ma’am, not only did I see one, but I also did “live” through one similar campaign many years ago – Gawad Kalinga’s heyday. Let me share the following episode of such campaign I wrote in my past ATABAY article “Lugaw Means You Never Have to Say You’re Sorry Coz You’re Left Behind.”

“It was a different kind of weekend I experienced in our [Gawad Kalinga] work with the poor by our community Couples for Christ (CFC) many years ago. I told my wife that particular morning to just stay home because our mission site was known to be rebel-infested and we were notified by the local authorities to leave the area before dark.

“Our group mostly men, with only a handful of female doctors in our medical team, rode in a dump truck loaded with our construction materials and tools paid up by CFC members ourselves through voluntary financial contributions. We made our way over a few kilometers stretch of a rugged road leading to the site. When we got there, we were a little bit surprised because the cluster of dilapidated houses in varying stages of disrepair looked abandoned. We saw no one around. All of a sudden, an elderly man appeared and talked to our mission head. We got to know that our Muslim brethren had gotten inside their houses when we arrived. They might have been caught napping, figuratively speaking, when our group appeared all at once. We could be the only people, more so Christians, they ever faced that would do some repair works in their houses at the same time at no cost.

“One by one, people started to come out from their houses when our medical team set things moving with their stethoscopes. In like manner, the noise of hammers, saws, and brooms resounded around the neighborhood from our carpentry, painting, and cleaning teams going all out with their respective repair jobs. Racing against time before sundown, we got our hands full all day long immersed in all types of repairs.

“After listening with a stethoscope to heartbeats on the final chest, after hammering the last nail, painting the last coat, and sealing all the roof leaks, we stacked up against our tools, gadgets, and accessories, and without any closing fanfare for our job well done, we cleared the area just right before the dreaded nightfall as a precaution for security reason.”

Not so few, in the course of such a campaign, would I run into this question: Why are you doing that? Not only tough is the answer but it may confuse. So I simply reply, “It’s a God-inspired thing.”

Surely, a Kakampink feels the same.

“The kind of campaign that VP Leni is running should scare her opponents,” Ms. Angsioco closed out her column. Yes, indeed, as Marcos Jr.’s running mate seemed to affirm: “We are always running scared.”