GOOD NEWS AND WIN FOR VP LENI COURTESY OF EASTER PRESS CON

 

“We know [survey] is fake. I guarantee you it is fake. It’s not real.” (Isko Moreno)

During a joint conference at the Peninsula Manila in Makati last Sunday, Presidential aspirants Sen. Panfilo Lacson, Francisco Domagoso, and Norberto Gonzales scrapped the value of election survey results based on their following statements:

SURVEYS ARE FAKE

Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso:

“If we believe in surveys, ayan na, sana wala na kami ditong tatlo. The mere fact na nandidito kami, and we will prove to you, later on, this is subject for verification, that we can prove to you na polluted yong survey, because we have an evidence already on hand, we’re just verifying it, na yong mga enumerator, ay napasok na ng malalaking, or what you call political oligarch.

“Pulse Asia and SWS may not know it, because they are the one analyzing it. But the raw data that they are getting, maybe, maybe, subject for further study, kasi, may hawak-hawak kami ngayon, na nahuli na namin yong gumagawa ng survey sa kalsada. Kaya lang we have to verify that report. So, if we believe in numbers in the way you asked us, dapat wala kami dito.”

Panfilo Lacson:

“I don’t believe that more than 50% of Filipinos are Marcos loyalists.”

Norberto Gonzales:

“This is the first time that I saw a survey, na iniitsa pwera yong particular class in our society. Hindi ba tinanggal nila yong A & B?...Lahat ng survey natin may A, B, C, D & E. Sabi nila hindi [nila] tinanggal, kaya lang walang kumibo doon sa A & B. This is already an indicative of something that is significant. Ibig sabihin may mga taong bayan tayo na ayaw makisali sa survey.

“Now, what is the percentage of that number of people in the universe that they are talking about? Kasi, ang pinipresent sa atin always 100%. Sa tingin ko ang universe na iniikotan ng survey is not 100%. May nakapwera dyan… Kaya yong 100% [in the survey] na pinag-uusapan natin may not 100% of the voters."

Such declaration is going along with Senator Richard Gordon’s contention that called into question such surveys as early as 2010 when he formally filed a case against SWS and Pulse Asia for frequently releasing pre-election survey results.

“Are we supposed to accept the results of the surveys as gospel truth? What if they are wrong?” Senator Gordon asked then, stressing that such surveys had “robbed the people of their right to choose their leaders wisely.”

SURVEYS ARE PROPAGANDA

Question: If election survey results are fake as Isko Moreno has asserted, why are they being published and grabbing headlines? Answer: The key is embedded in Justice Leonen ruling:

“The inclusion of election surveys in the list of items regulated by the Fair Election Act is a recognition that election surveys are not a mere descriptive aggregation of data. Publishing surveys are a means to shape the preference of voters, inform the strategy of campaign machinery, and ultimately, affect the outcome of elections. ELECTION SURVEYS HAVE A SIMILAR NATURE AS ELECTION PROPAGANDA. They are expensive, normally paid for by those interested in the outcome of elections, and have tremendous consequences on election results.

 “[T]here is the bandwagon effect where ‘electors rally to support the candidate leading in the polls’… The bandwagon effect is of particular concern because of the observed human tendency to conform.

“Surveys, far from being passive ‘snapshot of many viewpoints held by a segment of the population at a given time,’ CAN WARP EXISTING PUBLIC OPINION AND CAN MOULD PUBLIC OPINION.” (Underscoring mine)

EMPTY VESSEL

If survey results are fake and whose value must be scrapped as divulged during the press con, what will be left of Marcos Jr.’s election campaign whose only card he is playing now to win in his presidential run is anchored on surveys? As an answer, let me present the excerpts of the prolific column of Marlen Ronquillo of The Manila Times.

“The answer is nothing. Nada. Even after an impossible exertion – the equivalent of an auditor’s due diligence work… one is led, to use a cyber-term, into a ‘your inbox is empty’ answer.

“[T]he theme of the Marcos campaign: unity. The tandem of Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte-Carpio, his candidate for vice president, generally answers to a name, the ‘UniTeam.’

“Marcos Jr. throws around the theme ‘unity’ with carefree abandon because there is nothing else to invoke because there are no grand visions and breakthrough political platform to undergird his vacuous campaign… [T]he campaign of Marcos Jr. is all empty words and…rests on the edifice of mythologizing.

“To put it simply, running empty. An empty vessel refused to compete in a Comelec-sponsored debate among candidates for president and where a hundred thoughts, ideas, proposals, action programs, and, yes, dreams and visions have to contend. Marcos Jr. lamely contends he has other ways of communicating his message to the public. Which mainly is that there was once a Golden Age in Philippine history and that was the disastrous reign of his deposed president-father and namesake.

“After an exhaustive due diligence audit, this is what the campaign of Marcos Jr. is all about – an empire of vacuous slogans and mythologizing.”

GOOD NEWS AND WIN FOR VP LENI

With election surveys out of contention, the two tangible indicators left for us to assess are endorsements and campaign rallies.

“Vice President Leonor ‘Leni’ has been racking up endorsements right and left, including from pro-administration stalwarts… No other candidate, and arguably even the [survey] frontrunner, has managed to mobilize the kind of ‘grand rallies’ that have graced Leni’s campaign across the country in recent weeks.” (Richard Heydarian of Inquirer)

Reacting to a rally in Pampanga that attracted more than 200,000 supporters – the biggest crowd in her presidential campaign so far, Maria Ela L. Atienza, UP political science professor said, “There is momentum on the side of the Robredo-Pangilinan team with their combination of big rallies and smaller town hall discussions and house-to-house campaigns. Their lack of centralized campaign resources is compensated by the huge voluntary spirit of many supporters. In a way, the campaign is being run not like traditional party campaigning but as a social movement.”

The following basketball metaphor (to replace VP Leni as a failing challenger to Marcos Jr.) was showcased by former Defense Secretary Norberto Gonzales during the press con:

“Hindi po ako masyado marunong maglaro ng basketball, pero dito po sa atin alam ko ang ugali, pag last two minutes na, nagpapalit pa ng player, para segurado lang na maipanalo ang kanyang team.”

            Well, here’s a classic example of a last two-minute “crunch time” in the NBA. On the scoreboard 105-99, the New York Knicks led, with 18.7 seconds remaining in the shot block. The crowd was slowly heading off to the exit for it would appear to be a “Game Over.”

All of a sudden, Indiana Pacer’s Reggie Miller had pumped up and pulled off a miracle-like feat – hitting 8 points in 9 seconds – and ultimately topping off the final score of 107-105 improbable victory.

By the way, Reggie Miller ranks 3^rd all-time in career three-point field goals in NBA. No wonder.

Carrying out Mr. Gonzales strategy, right before the start of the final two minutes, he would replace Reggie Miller with another player from the bench – and lose the game.

Boo.