DEMOCRACY CAN EXIST ONLY ON TRUST

 

“Probe alleged electoral fraud, disabuse peoples’ minds.” (PRRD)

The following insight entitled “An Engineer’s Inkling on the Election Issue” I posted on FB the day after the election.

Disclaimer: This post intends to seek the truth in order to strengthen our democracy. I love St. Augustine’s definition of Truth: The Truth is like a lion. You don’t have to defend it. Let it loose. It will defend itself.

My first reaction to the conduct of the May 9 election in my ATABAY article: “I am unsure of the term ‘cheated’. But I am sure of the term ‘corrupted’ which, sad to say, is a systemic problem.” The subtle difference you may read in my article.

I am an engineer so what you will read is an insight from an engineer’s mind.

Here we go.

The numbers and percentages invited my interest in Rigoberto Tiglao’s column banner “60% Marcos win likely, 70% very doable” last April 22, 2022, in The Manila Times.

Seventeen days before the election, the following statement was made that caught my eye:

“There is no doubt at this point that Marcos will be winning the presidency, getting at the very least 50% of votes, which means 16 MILLION more votes than Leni Robredo’s if she gets 20 percent.”

Last night, I checked one newspaper PhilStar and got the following unofficial tally:

As of May 10 1:32 pm Tuesday, 97.59% votes transmitted.

Marcos Jr.      - 30,922,344

VP Robredo  - 14,743,588

Difference      - 16,178, 756

Today, I checked CNN Philippines tally, 98.21% votes transmitted.

Marcos Jr.      - 31,068,061

VP Robredo  - 14, 805,815

Difference      - 16,262,246

Wow! Mr. Tiglao accurately predicted the 16 MILLION difference in votes between Marcos Jr. and VP Robredo 17 days before the election! It’s a mathematical feat that involves 3 variables: a) a total number of voters who would vote on May 9, b) a total number of voters who would vote for Marcos Jr., and c) a total number of voters who would vote for VP Robredo.

On top of the complex 3-unknowns problem, here’s Tiglao’s amazing calculation of the 16 million votes difference due to Marcos Jr. taking away from Robredo’s votes:

Robredo soft votes     - 5 million

Command votes         - 1

Bandwagon effect      - 6

Election day collapse - 4

Total May 9                 - 16 million

Wow! Seventeen days before the election, Tiglao was able to quantify what will exactly take place on May 9. He was able to predict and quantify the following:

5 million minds of Robredo’s soft voters would shift to Marcos Jr.

1 million minds of Robredo’s command voters would shift to Marcos Jr.

6 million minds would join the Marcos Jr.’s bandwagon

4 million minds would just “collapse.” (No concrete idea what this means)

Frankly, that was a spectacular feat.

Takeaways:

If the election is fair, honest, and clean, then I will take my hat off to Mr. Tiglao for such an exceptional mind. I have been an admirer of Mr. Tiglao and Mr. Conrado de Quiros when both were Inquirer columnists many years ago.

Just as OCTA Research was congratulated “for being the new reliable player in the industry, its detailed pre-election polling…frighteningly accurate,” so too Mr. Tiglao for being the modern-day Nostradamus.

If it is not fair, honest, and clean, to reiterate PRRD’s call, the conduct of the May 9 election must be investigated to seek the Truth, to disabuse people’s minds, and hence, strengthen our democracy.

The post got 82 likes and 152 comments with some of my replies. Let me share some of these interesting internet exchanges:

Dolly: As for the CONSISTENT EQUATION every minute and every release of the “tabulated” result. What is the Engineer’s take? PLS help me accept so I can sleep “soundly” with no nightmare.

Me: I have an engineer’s mind but don’t have the IT expert skill. Sorry to disappoint you. VP Leni camp has turned over the issues, surely including such viral digital print, to IT experts. I hope that can help you sleep soundly. Democracy has plenty of defenders.

Dolly: My mind refuses to…

I inquired from an IT expert friend on the issue and here are our internet exchanges edited for brevity and clarity.

Me: Have you seen that viral print of a seeming pre-programmed digital process? What’s your opinion about it?

Friend: It means, the SOURCE CODE had been revised to follow a fixed pattern of a gap.

Me: Is this possible?

Then, I showed the viral 8-minute video clip of a simulated mini-election in a workplace which demonstrated the hacking of the transparency server that might have happened allegedly in our May 9 election.

Me: The video clip has demonstrated it can be done. Right?

Friend: I think it could be done as he demonstrated in the video, but better try using existing VCM using local best programmers to alter the codes.

Me: Good idea. “Replication” is the word?

Friend: Yes, you have, say, 7 days to do it. How will you proceed? You need to spend P500T to P2M I guess plus time.

You may say, hey, that cost is just a drop in a bucket to disabuse the minds of the people so that everyone can move on. Not so fast. There is also a viral letter circulating on the internet the following excerpt of which is pertinent to our issue.

“A Chinese IT Expert was hired to do this which can penetrate the Transparency Server. Thus, the 3x faster results. It cannot be traced where the results are coming from.”

Fake news? No one knows. The fact is, it’s viral.

Let me wrap up this article with this particular excerpted comment from Adele:

“I have a long comment/analysis of those numbers but I’m still writing it on my notes… sadly this country is going down the tubes once again.”

Excerpts of my reply to her:

“The life that no longer trusts another human being and no longer forms ties to the political community is not a human life any longer.” (Martha Nussbaum, philosopher)

“In our deeply-polarized nation today in the wake of the frenzied election, ‘another human being’ could mean a BBM supporter – an FB netizen, your neighbor, your friend, your relative, or even your family member. ‘Political community’ could mean one under the presumptive BBM presidency. Trust is the foundation of any relationship – to another human being and the political community.”

“Democracy will break under the strain of apron strings. It can exist only on trust.” (Mahatma Gandhi).

We hope and pray the probe into the alleged electoral fraud will disabuse peoples’ minds and restore such Trust. For Trust is like a paper, once it’s crumpled, it can’t be smooth again.