CHINA-TAIWAN CONFLICT: A TICKING TIME BOMB

 

“The United States has a huge stake in the stability of the Taiwan’s Strait. It’s a ticking time bomb, and we need to do everything we can to defuse that bomb before it explodes.” (Former US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta)

At any moment, the China-Taiwan conflict threatens to explode like a ticking time bomb, with catastrophic consequences. Brewing for decades, driven by historical, cultural, and political factors, the conflict has been fueled by China’s rapid military buildup and Taiwan’s tenacity for self-preservation.

For decades, tensions have simmered between China and Taiwan, with both sides claiming sovereignty over the island. However, recent developments have fanned the flames of the long-drawn-out conflict to intensify into a far more alarming level. China’s rapid military build-up, coupled with Taiwan’s gearing up in standing its ground against possible invasion, have shifted the conflict into a likely flash point.

It is time for the international community to get the grim picture of the inflamed conflict and go all out toward a peaceful resolution.

China’s Military Build-Up Spells Trouble for Taiwan

China’s recent military spending has skyrocketed homing in on modernizing and expanding its military capabilities. Its advanced weapons systems, such as the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile, with a 4,000 km range, can reach Taiwan and is capable of striking Guam and other US military installations in the region. Its variant, the DF-26B, an anti-ship missile, was tested in 2020.

US Admiral Michael McDevitt’s warning hit the bullseye: “China is building a military that is designed to fight and win against the United States in Asia,” and Taiwan is squarely in its sights.

Taiwan’s Defense Strategy: Preparing for a Possible Invasion by China

Given China’s aggressive posture, Taiwan has been forced to take measures to bolster its defense capabilities. It has heavily invested militarily: the purchase of advanced weapons systems such as F-16 fighter jets and missile defense systems that includes 200 anti-aircraft Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles and 100 AGM-88B HARM missiles that can take out land-based radar stations. Taiwan’s Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng did not pull his punches: “We must make ourselves strong and let the enemy know that we are not easy to bully.”

However, for all its grit and doggedness, Taiwan’s 2023 defense budget of $19.9 billion pales in comparison to China’s military budget of $224.8 billion -- predictably redounding to Taiwan’s drawback in standing up to a sustained invasion.

US Admiral Philip Davidson put all cards on the table: “China has the capability, and has telegraphed its intent, to use military force to annex Taiwan.”

The Role of the US in the Conflict

Having a longstanding commitment to Taiwan’s defense dating back to Taiwan’s Relations Act of 1979, the US has been careful in striking a delicate balance in its relationship with China – a major economic and strategic partner -- with a two-way trade between the two countries worth $690 billion in 2022. Such a juggling act has led to some ambiguity in the US stance on Taiwan, particularly when it comes to the crucial question of whether or not the US would be willing to intervene militarily if China invades Taiwan.

Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund, got to the heart of the matter: “The US is trying to balance between supporting Taiwan and deterring China from using force, without crossing China’s red line and risking war.” Such ambiguity, however, can induce uncertainty and instability, if China, in particular, perceives US wavering commitment in defending Taiwan.

The Economic Impacts of the Conflict

Being a major player with close ties to Japan, South Korea, and the US, Taiwan’s economy, if disrupted in the event of the conflict, would have far-reaching ripple effects. Being the world’s 16^th largest trading economy, with $922 billion worth of imported and exported goods and services in 2021, Taiwan’s trading traffic would be strangled in the event of a war blockade. Moreover, the conflict could potentially shatter more than $270 billion in trade between China and the rest of the world.

A conflict could further disrupt global supply chains, specifically in the technology sector. US Senator Rick Scott notes: “Taiwan produces more than 90 percent of the world’s semiconductors, and that is critical to our national security and our economy.” Any disruption to Taiwan’s semiconductor industry could have significant economic and security aftereffects for the US and other countries.

The Crucial Implications for the Philippines

In light of the Philippines’ decision to allow the US access to military bases under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) to strengthen its defense capabilities in the face of intensifying tensions in the region, the conflict has added another layer of complexity to the Philippines’ security jitters in three gradations.

Firstly, the Philippines have maintained strong economic ties with Taiwan in a two-way trade that measured up to $6.63 billion in 2021. An escalation of the conflict could potentially make a mess of this economic bond, adversely impacting the Philippines’ economy.

Secondly, China, in many cases, has tongue-lashed the US military in the region, viewing it as a threat to China’s security interests. The presence of US military bases in the Philippines, especially in the context of the China-Taiwan conflict, could potentially turn the country into a target for Chinese retaliation.

Thirdly, if the China-Taiwan ticking time bomb goes boom, the Philippines, as an ally of the US, could find itself in a tangled position, for having the hallmarks of being obligated to support any US action in the region.

On the other side of the coin, a sheepish neutral stance may seem to lead up the garden path. However, going down such a path could unleash a discomfited relationship with both China and the US – a lose-lose geopolitical roadmap.

Why Diplomacy, Not Force, is the Best Solution for the Conflict

Given the growing tensions and the high stakes involved, China and Taiwan must exercise restraint and seek a peaceful resolution to their differences. The use of military force would only lead to catastrophic consequences for both sides and destabilize the entire region. Former US Defense Secretary Robert Gates put on the alert: “It would be a disaster if two major powers in the world would collide.”

Like a ticking time bomb that could explode at any moment causing immense suffering and destruction, the conflict has stakes too high for both sides to ignore the risks and press on down the trajectory of confrontation. The world is watching, and the future of the Asia-Pacific region leans on the willingness and mutual effort of China and Taiwan to resolve their differences peacefully and diplomatically.

In a nutshell, the complex and volatile China-Taiwan conflict threatens the stability and security of the entire Asia-Pacific region. China’s military buildup, Taiwan’s defense strategy, the US’s ambiguous stance, and the economic impacts of the conflict all point to the urgent need for a peaceful resolution. Diplomacy and dialogue must be the primary means of resolving the conflict and the international community must work together to pursue this endeavor.

Former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright’s words got to the meat of this conflict: “There is no more important task than preserving peace, and no greater challenge than bringing about lasting peace in a changing world.”

Have a blessed Sunday!

Content of this article was put together in collaboration with ChatGPT.

Head collage photos courtesy of The Wall Street Journal, Republic World, Protolus, and freepikdotcom.

Video clips courtesy of YouTube.