Saturday, 22 July 2023

MIF & ICC: HOW TWO NOTICES REVEAL THE CONTRADICTIONS OF PBBM'S ECONOMIC VISION


 

“Open for business”

“Leave us alone”

What impression do you get when you see these two notices on the front door? Confused?

The first notice “Open for business” signals the intention behind the following headlines:

“Marcos signs Maharlika Investment Fund bill into law” – Philstar

“Marcos backs Maharlika fund: ‘We need added investment’” – Inquirer

The second notice “Leave us alone” reflects the defiance of the following headlines:

“ICC chamber junks PH’s petition to suspend resumption of drug war probe” – Rappler

“Marcos: PH ending all involvement with ICC” – CNN Philippines

          Nikkei Asia article “Marcos’ wealth fund is wrong cure for Philippine economy” by William Pesek, an award-winning Tokyo-based journalist, and author (an objective observer looking outside the box), offers a critical perspective on the meaning of the first notice “Open for business”. Here are some excerpts:

“[Maharlika Investment Fund, a sovereign wealth fund of sorts,] typically emerges when a government has an embarrassment of riches. Usually, this is because the sale of natural resources leaves a government with more cash than it knows what to do with [the so-called surplus]. Here, think of Saudi Arabia or Norway.

“The time not to create one is when a country is struggling with a budget deficit. Or when a nation’s troubles are so much bigger than a wealth fund could ever address – from chronic poverty to runaway inflation to endemic corruption.

“The fact that Marcos is the son of the dictator who destroyed an economy earlier destined to be a Southeast Asian success story only heightens fears that the fund is a very bad idea.”

OPEN FOR BUSINESS

So, PH is now “open for business”?


With such a fund that its critics have likened to the notorious 1Malaysia Development Bhd., and which was passed into law in a hasty and questionable manner -- that open-for-business notice is hardly convincing to global investors.

Our local pundit-economist Solita “Mareng Winnie” Monsod joined the fray:

“A sovereign wealth fund is supposed to be created out of excess, out of surplus, either surplus from commodity export, oil, gas, mineral export, or from inflows of foreign exchange that are too much. In other words, excess or fiscal surpluses.”

Having said that, the MIF’s “flight of the fancy” seems to be embedded in the words of PBBM himself: “We need added investment.” Senate President Juan Miguel Zubiri affirmed such a notion: “The President and the economic team are quite excited to highlight MIF to the world for INVESTORS TO COME IN.” (Underscoring mine)

Excerpts of The Manila Times’ Rigoberto Tiglao let the cat out of the bag with his out-of-the-box hunch in his column “Maharlika fund to bring back elites wealth stashed abroad”:

“Obviously, Marcos [Jr.] and the bill’s authors could not publicly reveal the real aim of the MIF: ‘Legitimate’ institutions, especially from abroad, would shun being in bed with what the press would in abbreviation call çrony money abroad.’

“If convincing his elite friends (or perhaps even his family) that the MIF would be an easy way for bringing back their money sitting in some foreign bank abroad or in the form of real property, to be invested in our country’s development, I say: By all means pass the law, let bygones be bygones.”

 Well, that’s Tiglao’s hunch -- take it or leave it. Ironically, such a “hidden” real aim would surely get on the global investors’ nerves on the makings of a rebranded Marcos 2.0 era.

Speaking of the “flight of the fancy,” I can’t help but quote Senate Minority Leader Aquilino Pimentel: “The MIF is a bad idea, a bad decision, a bad act. This is madness… developed on the fly. If it were an airplane, then it was built while flying it.”

This reminds me of a slightly different scenario, when James Cameron commented on the Titan submersible implosion: “I thought it was a horrible idea. I wish I’d spoken up, but I assumed somebody was smarter than me, because I never experimented with that technology, but it just sounded bad on its face.”

In the Titan’s case, five lives were lost due to such a “horrible idea”. But the MIF puts at risk the lives of more than 110 million people with such, in Pimentel’s words, a “madness” that he could only hope was based on some wisdom that he lacked.

But what about the investors that are supposed to come in? That’s exactly why PBBM has been travelling around the world, as he explained:

“Magpapakilala muna tayo. Kapag hindi tayo bumiyahe at nagpakita sa mga conference na yan, hindi nila tayo iniisip. Wala sa isipan nila ang Pilipinas.”

(We need to introduce ourselves first. If we do not travel and introduce ourselves in conferences, we would never be on their minds.)

“Kailangan natin ipakita kung ano ang ating para mapaganda ang POTENTIAL INVESTMENTS nila na dadalhin nila dito sa Pilipinas.” (Underscoring mine)

(We need to showcase the country to show them what POTENTIAL INVESTMENTS they can bring into the Philippines.)

LEAVE US ALONE

However, this contradicts the second notice on PH’s door: “Leave us alone.”


How can we attract potential investments with such a message on our door? How can we entice potential investments when PBBM has declared to the world that PH has cut off all ties with ICC?

By the way, do the above questions carry weight or make any sense? In other words, what are the implications of PBBM’s “full disengagement” of PH from ICC?

SOCIAL

1.    Impunity. It sends a message that there is impunity for those who commit crimes against humanity – demoralizing victims of such crimes and emboldening other rogue leaders to commit similar atrocities.

2.    Tension and Conflict. It could exacerbate tension and conflict.

3.    Human Rights Violations. It could lead to human rights violations, such as arbitrary detention, or extrajudicial killings of witnesses, victims, or those suspected of providing information to the ICC.

POLITICAL

1.    International Isolation. It could lose support from other countries.

2.    Diplomatic Repercussions. It could harm PH’s reputation on the global stage hampering cooperative work with other countries and international organizations shackling future negotiations and agreements. Exhibit A. “Gov’t Rushes to Avert EU Ban On PH Seafarers” (Inquirer)

3.    Domestic Instability. If the public pulse for the ICC investigation turns into widespread support [Exhibit B. “Lawyers’ group lauds ICC on denial of PH gov’t plea against resumption of ‘war on drugs’ probe” (MindaNews)], it could lead to internal unrest.

ECONOMIC (MIF Achilles Heel)

1.    Reduced Foreign Investment. It could lead to a reduction in foreign investment due to the investors’ uneasiness to invest in PH with a perceived poor human rights record and economic instability.

2.    Economic Sanctions. It could lead to economic sanctions – harming the PH economy by reducing investment and access to capital.

3.    Damage to International Trade Relations. It could harm PH’s trade relations with other countries leading to reduced exports and distress to local industries.

Exhibit C. “EU Parliament To PH: Act On Human Rights Abuses Or Lose GSP+ Perks” (Rappler)


INTERVENTION

Let me end this article with some excerpts from my previous ATABAY article “Easter Letter To My Atheist Friend”:

                                                              ><><

Speaking of social injustice, here’s a heartbreaking story of Kian, a 17 years old boy in a poor family of four siblings. His mother worked as a domestic helper in Saudi Arabia, while his father ran a sari-sari store that Kian helped from 5:30 a.m. to 12:00 noon every day before he went to school. After closing the store at night, he would usually walk around the block for some small talk with neighborhood friends.

Maybe it was during one of those walks when he was shot by the police operatives – one of the thousands (6,000+ according to the government, 30,000 according to CHR/ICC) killed in the drug war.

“Tama na po! May test pa ako bukas!” Kian pleaded for mercy before he was killed.

What did that test mean to Kian? A simple thing that could have opened up a bright future for his whole family.

A step closer to his dream of no longer using cooking oil when giving a massage to his father.

A step closer to his dream of reuniting his family with his mother quitting her overseas work as a domestic helper.

A step closer to his dream of having a bed for each of his siblings.

A step closer to his dream of expanding the sari-sari store that has sustained his whole family.

A step closer to his dream of becoming a policeman. How ironic.

“Meanwhile, where is God?” C.S. Lewis wrote those agonizing words amid the deep grief after his wife’s death from cancer.

In any difficult question, like “Is God hidden?” or “Why doesn’t He intervene?” as in Kian’s case, for instance, haven’t we felt in our hearts that the International Criminal Court is God’s intervention?

Have a blessed weekend!


Content put together in collaboration with Microsoft Bing AI-powered co-pilot

Head collage photos courtesy of Graphix Place, Signs & Lines, Sound Cloud, Shutterstock, Business Mirror, & Vector Stock

Video clips courtesy of YouTube

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