Tuesday 1 August 2023

ELISEO M. RIO JR.: A VOICE IN THE WILDERNESS


 

“A Preponderance of Evidence Shows That The May 09, 2022 Election Was Rigged”

(Position paper by Ret. Brig. Gen. Eliseo M. Rio Jr., Former Acting Secretary, DICT, Former NTC Commissioner)

“Rigged? 2022 polls illegally used private internet address” (Jarius Bondoc’s Philstar column banner)

“Lingering doubts about the 2022 election” (Randy David’s Inquirer column banner)

The clear-cut message of the three banners above can be put in a nutshell by David’s bottom line:

“The more they ignore the man, the more he starts to make sense.”

The “man” is Ret. Brig. Gen. Eliseo M. Rio Jr. whose position paper, “A Preponderance of Evidence Shows That The May 09, 2022 Election Was Rigged” cited 10 reasons that the election was full of anomalies and discrepancies showing the election was rigged, and 8 unusual events before and after the election that could have led to a fraudulent election process.

Jarius Bondoc, highlighting Rio’s presentation “Uncovering the Biggest Scam in our Electoral History,” wrote that the “bulk of Metro Manila and two provinces ’precinct results of the election ‘illegally’ came from one private IP (Internet Protocol) address.”

“That’s proof of election rigging,” says Rio. For example, 98.8 percent of Metro Manila precinct results were received from only one private IP address, 192.168.0.2. In the same way as Cavite, Batangas, and in all other provinces that “mysteriously” sent results within an hour of balloting’s end at 7 p.m.

While Bondoc spotlighted the use of an “illegal” address, David, accenting the lightning speed, writes,

“On May 9, 2022, the day the nation voted for its president only 22,963 out of over 106,174 clustered precincts nationwide (or about 22 percent) had officially reported the end of voting as of 7 p.m. This was what election commissioner Marlon Casquejo told reporters at 7:35 that evening. Everyone prepared for a long night.

“Yet, by 8:17 p.m., nearly 47 percent of all precincts not only had reported closing the polls, but had, in fact, already transmitted election results to the Commission on Elections (Comelec) transparency servers.

“While pleasantly surprised by the lightning speed at which the results were being transmitted by the nation’s polling precincts, many were soon bothered by what they were seeing.”

While the above discussion has focused on the technical aspects of this controversy, let me present three pieces of anecdotal evidence -- crowd, endorsements, and survey-media nostradamic prediction -- I excerpted from my previous ATABAY articles that could reinforce Rio’s position paper:

CROWD

“Robredo’s birthday rally crowd hit 412,000, organizers say” (CNN Philippines, Apr 23, 2022)

CNN Philippines reported that the local organizers estimated the throng to be 412,000 as of 7:30 p.m. with the Saturday event still ongoing.


Being aware then of the crowd estimate contention, I evaluated using Jacob’s Method Leni’s Pasay rally which is easy because of the rectangular flat area of the Macapagal Boulevard rally site, and came up to 404,040 crowd.

The heart of the matter. That same night in the National Capital Region, a similar event was taking place in Sampaloc – Marcos Jr.’s rally. It afforded us a rare opportunity in comparing the two rallies by placing VP Leni’s crowd of 412,000 side by side with that of Marcos Jr’s crowd of 14,000. The following banner could have been the “Breaking News” for the next day then – the gist of which was a quiet birthday gift to Leni: “Leni’s Rally Dwarfs 29-Fold Marcos Jr’s Crowd.”

A cold hard fact: Statistics-wise, the typical sample size of 1200 survey participants is a drop in the bucket against the bulk of the population size of the National Capital Region that very night which had the option to attend either of the two rallies taking place within the same area, date, and time.

 LENI'S ENDORSEMENTS

160 Economists plus 5 former NEDA chiefs & former CB deputy governor

150+ Law deans and professors nationwide

180,000-member Alliance of Concerned Teachers

1,000+ Educators of the La Salle schools in the country

400 Educators of the University of Santo Tomas

300 Faculty Members and Staff of the San Beda University

250 Alumni of the Asian Institute of Management

150+ Human Rights Lawyers (FLAG, SALIGAN, ALG, UPL)

130 Former Officials & Staff of Philippines Commission on Women (PCW)

700+ Doctors, Nurses, and Frontliners from Cavite

23 Former President Fidel V. Ramos government officials

47 Former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo government officials

95 Former President Benigno Aquino Jr. administration government officials

16 Former Presidents of the Philippine Bar Association

Current & Former Heads/Presidents of Schools, Colleges, and Universities

Individual Faculty Members & Staff of Ateneo Professional Schools

PHILRECA Party List (represents 121 electric cooperatives, 23 FVR officials)

Pamalakaya (Fishermen’s group)

Makabayan

Pinunong Pinay Power

Kilusang Mayo Uno

The Alliance of Labor Leaders for Leni (All4Leni)

Federation of Free Workers

Nagkakaisa at Progresibong Manggagawa, Kapatiran sa 2 Gulong

National Union of Bank Employees

National Congress of Unions in the Sugar Industry

4 Women Leaders of Indigenous Tribes from Mindanao

Panayanon and Panay Bukidnon IPs and Indigenous Cultural Community

Leni Urban Poor (15-organization coalition)

Alyansa Agricultura

Bangsamoro Supports Leni for Justice and Peace

Human Rights Vote 2022 (a coalition of HRDs, activists, and human rights groups)

Five National Artists of the Philippines

The LGBTQ+ community

First Ko Si Leni coalition

Katipunan ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino

Seniors for Leni

Students for Leni (student councils nationwide)

1Sambayan

Lipa Archdiocesan Council of the Laity

Council of the Laity of Calapan in Oriental Mindoro

Council of the Laity of the Apostolic Vicariate of Taytay

100+ members of the religious order Society of Jesus

Pari Madre Misyonero Para Kay Leni (Religious men and women in Philippines)

Sangguniang Laiko ng Pilipinas

Missionary Benedictine Sisters of St. Scholastica’s Priory

Couples For Christ International Council

Ang Ligaya ng Panginoon community

Tahanan ng Panginoon community

This relatively long list of endorsing organizations does not lie.


SURVEY-MEDIA NOSTRADAMIC PREDICTION

“In the past, the correspondence between pre-election survey results and actual election returns was considered concrete proof of the increasing accuracy of polling techniques and their predictive power. Today, it is employed as unassailable confirmation of the truthfulness of election results. The irony is inescapable.” (Randy David)

Here are the excerpts of my post-election ATABAY article “Democracy Can Exist Only On Trust.”

                                                                ><><

Disclaimer: This post intends to seek the truth to strengthen our democracy. I love St. Augustine’s definition of Truth: “The Truth is like a lion. You don’t have to defend it. Let it loose. It will defend itself.”

I am an engineer so what you will read is an insight from an engineer’s mind.

Here we go.

The numbers and percentages invited my interest in Rigoberto Tiglao’s column banner “60% Marcos win likely, 70% very doable” last April 22, 2022, in The Manila Times.

Seventeen days before the election, the following statement was made that caught my eye:

“There is no doubt at this point that Marcos will be winning the presidency, getting at the very least 50% of votes, which means 16 MILLION more votes than Leni Robredo’s if she gets 20 percent.”

Last night, I checked one newspaper PhilStar and got the following unofficial tally:

As of May 10, 1:32 pm Tuesday, 97.59% of votes were transmitted.

Marcos Jr.      - 30,922,344

VP Robredo  - 14,743,588

Difference      - 16,178, 756

Today, I checked CNN Philippines tally, and 98.21% of votes transmitted.

Marcos Jr.      - 31,068,061

VP Robredo  - 14, 805,815

Difference      - 16,262,246

Wow! Mr. Tiglao accurately predicted the 16 MILLION difference in votes between Marcos Jr. and VP Robredo 17 days before the election! It’s a mathematical feat that involves 3 variables: a) the total number of voters who would vote on May 9, b) the total number of voters who would vote for Marcos Jr., and c) the total number of voters who would vote for VP Robredo.

On top of the complex 3-unknowns problem, here’s Tiglao’s amazing calculation of the 16 million votes difference due to Marcos Jr. taking away from Robredo’s votes:

Robredo soft votes     - 5 million

Command votes         - 1

Bandwagon effect      - 6

Election Day collapse - 4

Total May 9                 - 16 million

Wow! Seventeen days before the election, Tiglao was able to quantify what will exactly take place on May 9. He was able to predict and quantify the following:

5 million minds of Robredo’s soft voters would shift to Marcos Jr.

1 million minds of Robredo’s command votes would shift to Marcos Jr.

6 million minds would join the Marcos Jr.’s bandwagon

4 million minds would just “collapse.” (No concrete idea what this means)

Frankly, that was a spectacular feat.

Takeaways:

If the election is fair, honest, and clean, then I will take my hat off to Mr. Tiglao for such an exceptional mind. I was an admirer of Mr. Tiglao and Mr. Conrado De Quiros when both were Inquirer columnists many years ago.

Just as OCTA Research was congratulated “for being the new reliable player in the industry, its detailed pre-election polling…frighteningly accurate,” so too was Mr. Tiglao for being the modern-day Nostradamus.

If it is not fair, honest, and clean, to reiterate PRRD’s call, the conduct of the May 9 election must be investigated to seek the Truth, to disabuse people’s minds, and hence, strengthen our democracy.

                                                             ><><

The one formidable thing that Rio has to surmount, to the bitter end, in his lonesome pursuit for truth, is embedded in the marrow of this anecdote:

The teacher writes a word in big bold letters on the blackboard.

Student 1: Hey, dude, what’s that word?

Student 2. Dunno, man.

Student 1. Whatever, nobody cares anyway.

The word is APATHY.

“Apathy is the acceptance of the unacceptable.” (John Stott)


 Head collage photos courtesy of Wikipedia & Rare HD Wallpapers

Video clips courtesy of YouTube

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