Tuesday, 16 January 2024

TAIWAN 2024 & PHILIPPINES 2016: A TALE OF TWO ELECTIONS


 

IT WAS THE BEST OF TIMES for democracy, living through a gorgeous, sunny Saturday, 13th of January, 2024 in Taiwan. The Guardian’s Michelle Kuo wrote a piece titled “Taiwan’s Election Result is a Triumph for Democracy – and a Thorn in Beijing’s Side” which I am excerpting below:

“In a world gone mad, Taiwan’s story is indisputably, heartbreakingly hopeful. According to the nonprofit Freedom House, Taiwan is the sixth most free country in the world – above France and the US. It has legalized same-sex marriage, making it a haven for queer people across Asia. It boasts one of the highest rates of female participation in the legislature. It has universal healthcare and affordable public transport.

“The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) holds on to a vision of Taiwan that is genuinely multicultural and multilingual. This is a giant thorn in Beijing’s side because Taiwan shows that democracy works. One of the Chinese Communist Party’s central claims is that democracy is incompatible with Chinese-speaking societies. But Taiwan’s very existence undermines that claim.”

IT WAS THE WORST OF TIMES for democracy, looking back on that warm, humid, and partly cloudy Monday, 30th of May, 2016 in the Philippines. Time Magazine’s Nash Jenkins wrote a piece titled Why Did the Philippines Just Elect a Guy Who Jokes About Rape as Its President? which I am excerpting below:

“[M]illions of voters in the Philippines went to the polls to vote for their next President. The apparent winner, with nearly two-fifths of the vote: Rodrigo Duterte, the 71-year-old populist mayor who gained international attention with a string of gleeful gaffes. John Oliver described him as the Trump of the East, but Duterte makes Trump sound like a Sunday school teacher: in November, he called Pope Francis ‘a son of a whore’; last month, he expressed disappointment at the fact that he did not get to participate in the 1989 gang rape of a ‘beautiful’ Australian missionary. He’s casually mentioned his penchant for Viagra.

“But to millions of Filipinos, Duterte’s appeal is simple: he is, they believe, the sort of bombastic firebrand who can clean up a crime-riddled nation and eradicate endemic corruption.

“The country, in other words, needs a quick and dirty fix, and that is Duterte’s mandate.

“’If I make it to the presidential palace, I will do just what I did as mayor,’ Duterte said at a campaign rally over the weekend. ‘All of you who are into drugs, you sons of bitches, I will really kill you. I have no patience. I have no middle ground, either you kill me or I will kill you idiots.’”

IT WAS THE SPRING OF HOPE, looking ahead, for Taiwanese people as “Taiwan’s story is indisputably, heartbreakingly hopeful” in the face of China’s disinformation and fake news flooding Taiwan before the election. China has branded then the DPP presidential candidate Lai Ching-te a “troublemaker” for his pro-sovereignty stance. Taiwan’s AI Labs founder Ethan Tu told VOA during an interview:

“[I]n this year’s election, short videos on YouTube and Tiktok are playing very important roles… the content produced by these YouTubers aligns with the narratives promoted by Chinese state media. These YouTube channel owners will pretend to be neutral but when they talk about things in the videos, they will mix in information that reflects the Chinese government’s interests… often pro-China while demoting Japan and the U.S. They will frame China as a peacemaker while characterizing the U.S. as dragging other countries into wars.

“As probably one of the first teams around the world to use generative AI to detect efforts to manipulate information created by generative AI, we hope other international partners will be interested in contributing to the efforts of preventing authoritarian states from using generative AI to influence people around the world, creating an alliance among democratic countries.”


IT WAS THE WINTER OF DESPAIR, in retrospect, for Filipino people as hundreds of coordinated fake accounts with links to China supportive of President Rodrigo Roa Duterte (PRRD) flooded the Philippines. Violating the platform’s policies on foreign interference, such fake accounts were taken down later by Facebook which viewed them as coordinated inauthentic conduct on behalf of a foreign entity.

Former Philippine foreign secretary Albert del Rosario exposed in the Rappler report that senior Chinese officials had grandstanded about their impact on the 2016 Philippine elections where PRRD won. Del Rosario said:

“On February 22, 2019, we received information from a most reliable international entity that high officials from China are bragging that they had been able to influence the 2016 Philippine elections so that Duterte would be president.”

Rappler reported Del Rosario’s slamming of PRRD’s dismissal of the arbitral award to “fit into a disturbing pattern of loyalty to a foreign power.” As one headline bannered: “Duterte says PH arbitral win vs. China ‘just’ a piece of paper, thrash to be thrown away” (CNN Philippines)

PRRD, during one of his journeys to China, said then: “I just simply love Xi Jinping. He understood, he understands my problem and he is willing to help.” Del Rosario ripped PRRD’s coddling of Xi, who has symbolized an “aggressor that is openly and illegally occupying land and waters that belong to the Filipino people.”

“It is certainly disturbing to see our President – who should be looking after his own people – relying on a foreign leader for his security of tenure as President,” Del Rosario stressed.


NUANCES IN DEGREE OF COMPARISON

Let’s throw some light on the above momentous turns of events which may unearth a bit of nuggets of wisdom.

In the 2024 Taiwan election, China pulled out all the stops in thwarting presidential candidate Lai Chen-te, the “troublemaker,” but it fizzled out.

In the 2016 Philippine election, China made the same all-out effort in propping up presidential candidate Rodrigo Duterte, the “appeaser,” and it prevailed.

The common denominator that tweaked the above turns of events: the last-minute stroke of “disunity” as shown in the following headlines:

Headline: “An Alliance of Taiwan’s Opposition Parties Collapse. Here’s Why It Matters” (Time)

“The dramatic falling out marks the collapse of a short-lived Beijing-friendly alliance that… many speculated may have been a threat to… Lai Ching-te,” Time reported.

“Had a short-lived pact between the KMT and TPP not spectacularly and embarrassingly blown up in November, then the election result might have been different,” Time noted in another report.

The following sequence of local headlines in times past spoke volumes of such a last-minute stroke of “disunity”:

Headline: “LP Torn Between Mar Roxas, Grace Poe” (Inquirer)

Headline: “Roxas Should Give Way to Poe to Beat Duterte” (CNN Philippines)

Headline: “Poe Refuses to Withdraw from Presidential Race to Allow Roxas to Defeat Duterte” (Gulf News)

Had the stroke of “disunity” between Roxas and Poe avoided, the election result might have been different.

While China failed in uniting the two pro-Beijing political parties in the recent Taiwan election, did it play a part in Roxas-Poe’s last-minute stroke of “disunity” that resulted in a win for Duterte, a pro-Beijing president?

Rather than dealing with such a trifling question from the distant past, let’s delve into this pivotal point to ponder: Do you ever wonder how the depravity of “disunity,” last-minute or otherwise, can make or break a nation’s fate?


Head collage photos courtesy of Foreign Policy & The Yale Review of International Studies

Video clips courtesy of YouTube

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