Before we start answering the question in the above title, let’s look into how the USA - the most powerful nation in the world – deals with the problem itself in preparing for its upcoming election come November this year.
What if Chinese operatives created a fake AI-generated video showing an American Senate candidate destroying ballots? (Remember Leila de Lima and Aika Robredo’s deepfake videos?) How should the US national security agencies respond to deepfake videos and rampant disinformation; and what if they aren’t sure China is behind it? How should they respond if violence erupts in polling stations on Election Day?
The above questions are just among the many issues weighed up in the White House Situation Room last December when senior national security officials came together to lay the groundwork for the 2024 US election. CNN reported that “they faced a pair of stark, simulated scenarios that tested the limits of any federal response to election-related chaos.”
Such questions come down to how wary US officials still are of foreign election meddling. Rightly so. In 2016, Russian intelligence agencies, after hacking the Democratic National Committee, released emails damaging Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign. The predicted aftermath ever since has been staring Uncle Sam right in the face – Trump, who loves Putin, won that election.
The latest headline, Russian hackers breached key Microsoft systems, is a forewarning to Biden to be sure not missing a trick by Putin. In his recent State of the Union Address, referring to the Ukraine invasion, Biden asserted: “My message to President Putin is simple. We will not walk away. We will not bow down. I will not bow down.”
For this coming November US election, does China have the cyber capability, like Russia, to influence such a crucial electoral process? FBI Director Christopher Wray warned that Chinese hackers are preparing to “wreak havoc and cause real-world harm” to the US. He revealed that Chinese hackers outnumber FBI cybersecurity staff by “at least 50 to one.” Associated Press reporting on the Chinese hacking industry – a vast network of private hackers-for-hire companies infiltrating hundreds of systems outside China – stressed that they are a “formidable force” today.
Here's a close look at the hacking industry’s nuts and bolts – the “click farms.” Jack Latham, a British photographer, documented some of the shadowy “farms” in Vietnam (the pandemic-related travel restrictions dashed his plans to document the practice in China) that help clients artificially boost online traffic and social media engagement in the hope of manipulating algorithms and user perceptions.
“When most people are on social media, they want nothing but attention – they’re begging for it,” Latham said. “With social media, our attention is a product for advertisers and marketers.” It only takes one person, he disclosed, to do the work of 10,000 (for less than one cent per click, view, or interaction) ranging from mass posting and commenting on Facebook accounts to setting up YouTube platforms to post and watch videos.
Latham wrote in his CNN article Photographer steps inside shadowy “click farms” that such “farms” exploded in number – particularly in Asia, where they can be found across India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines, and beyond.
Remember Mucha Uson? “Widely criticized for constantly propagating fake news and misinformation, earning her the nickname the Queen of Fake News (Wikipedia), her blog reached over 5.3 million followers in December 2017. Philstar diligent columnist Federico Pascual suspected then her Facebook “likes” jumping by big blocks about 1,000 an hour starting at 2 a.m. He asked, “Are computers and apps doing it for a paying client?”
Such a question was a tough nut to crack then. But, today, in light of the “click farms,” the answer is a no-brainer.
When Biden and Xi - the two “kings” of the geopolitical chessboard - met during a high-stakes meeting in California last November, it was no less than Biden himself who raised the issue of the potential for China to interfere in or influence the upcoming US election. Right then and there, it prompted Xi to promise Biden that China wouldn’t interfere in the 2024 US election.
How about a “pawn” in the geopolitical chess board, like the Philippines? Could President Bongbong Marcos (PBBM), upon request, expect the same promise from Xi not to interfere in the 2025 Philippine election? Could such a promise be given by China which has a belligerent relationship with the Philippines as demonstrated in the following excerpted exchange of harsh statements recently made by the officials of both countries?
“[T]he real problem and the real flashpoint… is in the West Philippine Sea. [T]here can be one major accident… the Philippines can invoke the MDT (Mutual Defense Treaty) … then all hell breaks loose.” – Philippine Ambassador to the United States Jose Manuel Romualdez
“It is deplorable that the said individual, in ignorance of basic facts, again used the South China Sea issue to hype up and launch a baseless accusation and malicious smear campaign against China.” – Statement of the Spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in the Philippines
“Ambassador Jose Manuel Romualdez is not a mouthpiece for ‘another country’ nor is he spreading erroneous ‘China threat’ and ‘Sinophobia’ remarks. [He has been] consistent… regarding the threat posed by unlawful, aggressive, and provocative actions of the Chinese Coast Guard and Chinese maritime militia against Philippine vessels and personnel, and Filipino fishermen.” – Statement by the Philippine Embassy in Washington, D.C.
As I hit the keys, the “war on words” has been brought to a standstill for the moment, while the “war on nerves” between the two countries grinds away in the West Philippine Sea.
At this point, let me share a quote from Neville Chamberlain, pre-WWII prime minister of the United Kingdom. In the Munich Agreement of 1938, he agreed to cede parts of Czechoslovakia to Hitler and is now the most popular example of the foreign policy known as appeasement as spelled out by his following words:
“I have the sense that to draw a line in the dust is to dare Herr Hitler to cross it. I am not anxious to enter matches of daring with him. I want to convince him that he can get all that Germany is entitled to without having to fight.”
Let’s look at the last sentence, replace Germany with China and “him” with Xi, and weigh up the resultant line: “I want to convince Xi that he can get all that China is entitled to without having to fight.”
It appears to embody President Rodrigo Roa Duterte’s (PRRD) appeasement policy as upheld by the following Philstar headline: “Just a piece of paper”: Duterte says he will “throw away” Philippines’ arbitral win vs. China.
PRRD's pro-China presidency was a goodie bag for Xi whom PRRD publicly idolized: “I simply love Xi Jinping.” Not only did China bag PRRD’s love, but as well as the following aces in the hole, among others:
- Construction of artificial islands and militarization
- Weakening of regional unity against territorial claims
- Access to rich fisheries and potential energy reserves
- Leveraging media outlets and state-controlled narratives to shape public opinion
- A softer stance provided China with strategic leverage to advance its interests.
As the old saying goes, The proof of the pudding is in the eating, in which PRRD then was the pudding Numero Uno. Former Philippine foreign secretary Albert del Rosario exposed senior Chinese officials who had grandstanded about their impact on the 2016 Philippine elections where PRRD won. Del Rosario said:
“On February 22, 2019, we received information from a most reliable international entity that high officials from China are bragging that they had been able to influence the 2016 Philippine elections so that Duterte would be president.”
Taken by surprise and let down by PBBM’s shift towards a pro-US stance, coupled with having baked puddings in the Philippine election like magic in the past (which may include TNTrio’s claim of a rigged 2022 election), have you ever thought China would bake another pudding again – maybe, this time, pudding Numero Dos?
Content put together in collaboration with Bing Microsoft AI-powered Co-pilot
Head photo courtesy of istock
Video clips courtesy of YouTube
No comments:
Post a Comment