It’s blazing hot these days. Imagine you walk into an ice cream shop where you have hundreds of customers, and every single one of them decides to order exactly two scoops of vanilla on a cone with a cherry on top. Now, the first customer, sure, that’s a classic choice. But by the time you hit customer number 369, who also wants the same two scoops of vanilla with a cherry on top, you start to wonder if there’s a hidden camera somewhere.
Here comes the mind-blowing stuff. The same number of exactly 369 customers – every single one of them -- have also ordered exactly two scoops of vanilla on a cone with a cherry on top, in another 62 ice cream shops spread throughout the metropolis. In other words, the same thing has been exactly taking place in all other ice cream shops. A taste of a twilight zone, huh?
You’re not just scratching your head; you’re amused because it seems like the whole town got together to play the most bizarre prank on the ice cream shops ever. It’s so statistically improbable that you’d expect a unicorn to waltz in next, asking for a scoop of sorbetes.
The above eye-popping situation is a metaphor for Jarius Bondoc’s Philstar column banner Can Comelec explain? Presidential rivals got identical votes in NCR.
Let’s rack our brains with this next one.
Imagine you’re walking through a vast orchard filled with thousands of orange trees. You find 63 trees with precisely 369 oranges each, and another 63 trees with exactly 364 oranges each. Further along, you discover 61 trees with exactly 378 oranges each, and another 61 trees with exactly 376 oranges each.
This is as improbable as finding a needle in a haystack that’s the size of a city. It defies the natural laws of variability and suggests a meticulous hand -- artificially arranged each orange, much like the statistically improbable identical vote counts in the election suggest a deliberate manipulation rather than the organic will of the electorate.
Yet this is the kind of statistical improbability that has cast a long shadow over the 2022 Philippine presidential election. To be specific, Bongbong Marcos got exactly 369 votes in each of the 63 precincts, and exactly 364 votes in each of another 63 precincts. He got exactly 378 votes in 61 more precincts each, and exactly 376 votes in another 61 precincts each. And so on.
It’s a tale of numbers that refuse to add up, of identical votes that echo through the ballot boxes. Needing no help from rocket scientists, the man on the street could easily figure out that it’s a tale of numbers that whisper the possibility of a rigged election.
Backgrounder
A name now synonymous with the pursuit of electoral integrity, Eliseo Rio, has stepped into the spotlight with his TNTrio, armed with data that challenges the credibility of the 2022 election results. In our nation where democracy is as vibrant as the bustling streets of Manila, these allegations have stirred the pot of political discourse, serving a dish of discomfort to those seated at the table of political power.
The heart of Rio and his TNTrio’s exposé beats with the rhythm of credible information, the kind that can’t be easily dismissed. Rio’s insider knowledge, akin to the revelations of a whistleblower, adds a layer of authenticity that demands attention. His team’s investigation, meticulous and thorough, paints a clear narrative that even the layperson can grasp – the numbers simply don’t match.
But then, the exposé’s effectiveness hinges on more than just the shock value, (if there’s any at all) of its findings. It needs the legal protection to shield its bearers, the editorial support to amplify its voice, and the right timing to ensure it doesn’t drown in the chatter of the 24-hour news cycle. Most importantly, it requires the engagement of its audience, we, the Filipino people, whose collective outcry can turn the tide of action.
The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly Scenarios
In the best-case scenario, The Good, this exposé becomes the catalyst for a renaissance of transparency and accountability. It could awaken a dormant public, igniting a newfound vigilance in the electoral process, and fortifying the pillars of Philippine democracy.
Let me share excerpts of my past ATABAY article What’s Right With Pinoys edited for brevity.
“Have you ever wondered that this rigged 2022 election exposé by the TNTrio may be a blessing in disguise to Pinoys and the Philippines? Maybe, the TNTrio are heaven-sent instrument and the exposé is a wake-up call on a platter, as a gift dropped from the sky, to pave the way for the rare opportunity to reveal the truth about the ‘scam.' In the eyes of the world, it will bring about the transfiguration of Pinoy’s long-suffering despondent image from ‘suckers’ to ‘busters.’
“The TNT Trio’s claim of the rigged election is not only a legal battle, but also a moral crusade. It is not only a matter of justice, but also a matter of dignity. It is not only a test of our institutions, but also a test of our character.
“It is not only a question of what’s wrong with the Philippines, but also a question of what’s right with us, Pinoys."
The Bad scenario looms like a storm cloud, threatening to deepen the fissures of political division. The exposé could become a weapon in an already heated political battle. (Oddly enough, the Duterte-charged self-proclaimed “opposition” role could not bring this exposé into play in their anti-Marcos Jr. rallies since VP Sara is an integral part of Marcos Jr.’s victory in the 2022 election.) The exposé could erode trust in institutions, like the Comelec, that are the bedrock of Philippine society.
And then, there’s The Ugly scenario, the possibility of a grim stalemate where the exposé is reduced to mere whispers in the corridors of power, its potential for change stifled by apathy, inaction, and manipulation.
Implication for the Political Landscape
The short-term effects are as unpredictable as the weather in the tropics – sunny one moment, stormy the next. The current administration may find itself navigating choppy waters, while the opposition (if there’s any real one) could seize this as an opportunity to rally the masses.
In the long run, the exposé could either be the seed that grows into a robust tree of governance or the axe that chops away at the fragile trust between the government and the Filipino people.
As we pause at the intersection of past and future, the exposé by Eliseo Rio and the TNTrio beckons us to choose a path. Will we stride towards a future where truth prevails, or will we tread the well-worn path of complacency? The answer lies not in the stars but in our hands, as we decide what kind of nation we want to be.
The story of the 2022 Philippine presidential election is not just about numbers; it's about the narrative we choose to write as a people. It’s a narrative that can either bind us with the chains of doubt or free us with the power of truth.
So, let’s pick up our pens and be the authors of our fate, for the next act awaits our creation.
Content put together in collaboration with Microsoft Bing AI-powered Co-pilot
Head collage photos courtesy of Rappler, X-com, The Philippine Reporter, YouTube, and Reuters
Video clips courtesy of YouTube
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