As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, the significance of the outcome stretches far beyond American borders.
For Filipino registered voters in the US, this election holds critical implications for the Philippines, particularly in the contested waters of the South China Sea (SCS). The next US president could either strengthen or weaken the crucial US-Philippine alliance, directly affecting the nation’s security, economy, and sovereignty.
Though miles away from home, Filipinos in the US have a unique opportunity to influence these outcomes through their votes. Whether it’s a Harris presidency focused on bolstering regional military ties or a Trump administration more focused on American interests, the impact of US foreign policy will inevitably be felt in the Philippines.
Your vote could be part of shaping the future not just in the US, but also for the country you hold dear.
Banaue Rice Terraces
Now, let’s dive deeper into how exactly a Harris or Trump presidency might affect the Philippines, particularly with regard to the SCS conflict by tuning in to our TV talk show.
ME: Hello everyone, welcome to PoliTik Talk. I’m your host, and today we have a special guest in the studio – someone who’s going to shed some much-needed light on the US 2024 election and what it means for the Philippines, especially with the SCS conflict. Please give a warm welcome to geopolitical expert, Mr. AI!
MR AI: Thank you for having me. I’m really excited to dig into this topic, and hopefully, we can simplify some of these complex issues for everyone here today.
ME: Oh, absolutely! We’re all ears! Now, let’s get straight to the heart of it, Mr. AI. The US 2024 election could be a game-changer, and the Philippines is watching closely. Can you break down for us why this election matters so much for the Philippines, especially in the SCS context?
MR AI: Certainly! The reason this election is so important for the Philippines is that the US is a key ally, especially when it comes to security issues in the region. The SCS, as you know, is a hotbed of tension – China claims a huge part of it, including areas that the Philippines also claims.
A map shows occupied or administered islands in the disputed South China Sea (AFP)
MR AI: The US has been a balancing force against Chinese aggression in that region, so whoever wins the US presidency in 2024 – whether it’s Kamala Harris or Donald Trump – could drastically change how the Philippines handles this brewing conflict.
ME: Got it. So, it’s not just about who wins, but how they handle foreign policy, right? Let’s start with Kamala Harris. If she becomes president, how do you see her handling the SCS situation? What does it mean for the Philippines?
MR AI: Great question. If Harris takes office, we can expect her to maintain the Biden administration’s current strategy. Biden has been focused on multilateralism – working closely with allies like Japan, Australia, and, of course, the Philippines – to counter China’s growing influence. Harris would likely build on this, reinforcing US alliances in Southeast Asia.
For the Philippines, this would mean stronger military ties. We’d see more joint exercises, like the Balikatan drills, and possibly an increase in US military presence in the region. All of this would send a strong signal to China that the US isn’t backing down. Economically, Harris would probably push for fairer trade agreements with the Philippines, ensuring that the country remains a key partner in the Indo-Pacific.
ME: That sounds like a win for the Philippines, but are there any risks? Could a Harris presidency provoke China more?
MR AI: Absolutely, and that’s where the tension comes in. While a Harris-led administration would mean more military support for the Philippines, it could also heighten tensions with China. Beijing could view increased US presence as a direct challenge, which might escalate the situation in the SCS. So, while the Philippines might feel more secure with the US backing, it would also risk being caught in the middle of a power struggle between these two giants.
U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris met with Philippine President Bongbong Marcos in effort to boost ties.
ME: Ah, so it’s like being stuck between a rock and a hard place, right? Now, let’s talk about Donald Trump. He’s known for his America First policy. How would a Trump presidency change things for the Philippines and the SCS?
MR AI: Trump is a whole different story. His America First policy is all about putting US interest first, and that often means pulling back from long-term commitment abroad. So, while Trump has taken tough stance on China in the past – especially with trade – he’s less interested in multilateral alliances and more into making bilateral deals.
If Trump wins, the Philippines might see a reduction in US military presence in the region. Trump could decide that it’s not worth America’s resources to keep a strong military foothold in Southeast Asia unless it directly benefits the US. This would leave the Philippines more vulnerable to China’s aggression, as it would have to handle more of the conflict on its own or with limited help from the US.
ME: So, under Trump, it’s more like the Philippines might have to fend for itself a bit more?
MR AI: Exactly. Trump’s approach could force the Philippines to rethink its strategy. Without guaranteed US military support, Manila might have to look for other partners in the region – maybe Japan or Australia – or even consider a more neutral stance toward China to avoid confrontation. It could also push the Philippines to build up its own military defenses, which isn’t a bad thing, but it comes with high costs and risks.
Then-U.S. President President Donald Trump met with then-Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte during the 31st ASEAN summit in Manila.
ME: Wow, that’s a big shift! So, to summarize, Harris means more US support but also more risks of escalation with China, and Trump could mean less support, leaving the Philippines to figure out a new strategy on its own?
MR AI: That’s exactly right! Harris would offer stability and stronger ties with the US, but with the downside of higher tensions with China. On the other hand, Trump’s hands-off approach could mean more independence for the Philippines, but at the cost of losing some much-needed security and economic backing from the US. It’s really a tough balancing act for the Philippines.
ME: Speaking of balance, do you think the Philippines can walk that tightrope? How should they navigate this tricky situation, especially with these two very different candidates on the horizon?
MR AI: The Philippines will need to tread carefully, no doubt. One approach could be for Manila to diversify its alliances – strengthening ties not only with the US but also with countries like Japan, Australia, and even within ASEAN. That way, if the US changes its level of support depending on who’s in power, the Philippines has other partners to lean on.
Additionally, maintaining open lines of communication with China, while still standing firm on its territorial claims, would be crucial. The Philippines can’t afford to put all its eggs in one basket, so it needs to find a way to keep its relationship with both the US and China manageable without being drawn into a full-blown conflict.
ME: That’s a fine line to walk! Now, as we wrap up, for our audience and viewers at home, what’s the key takeaway here? What should Filipinos be watching for as the US election approaches?
MR AI: The key takeaway is this: the outcome of the US election will shape not just US-Philippine relations but the broader security landscape in Southeast Asia. If Harris wins, expect stronger military ties but also higher tensions with China. If Trump wins, be prepared for less US involvement, which could leave the Philippines more vulnerable but also more independent.
Ultimately, the Philippines needs to stay flexible and build a foreign policy that doesn’t depend entirely on the US – this is the moment to strengthen other regional partnership and plan for all possibilities.
ME: Mr. AI, you’ve given us a lot to think about! Thank you for sharing your insights with us today.
MR AI: My pleasure! It’s been a great discussion.
ME: And that’s it for today’s episode of PoliTik Talk. Remember, folks, the 2024 US election is more than just an American issue – it could affect the Philippines and the entire region. Until next time, keep thinking critically, and stay informed!
Content and editing put together in collaboration with ChatGPT
Head collage photos courtesy of BBC & Depositphotos
Still photos courtesy of YouTube, Jim Watson/AFP, USNI News, Inquirer, & Reuter
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