Monday, 24 February 2025

SARA'S ROAD TO 2028: A "CANNIBALIZATION" DILEMMA


Picture you’re walking down a supermarket aisle, faced with two seemingly identical products from the same brand – one of them a fresh new release, and the other a familiar favorite. The problem? There’s barely a difference between them. This was the fate of PepsiCo’s Crystal Pepsi, a transparent version of the iconic Pepsi. Despite being marketed as a bold, innovative new product, it lacked clear differentiation from its predecessor.

What happened?

Crystal Pepsi’s launch cannibalized Pepsi’s existing market share, ultimately leading to its quick disappearance from the shelves. Similarly, Coca-Cola’s Diet Coke became a classic example of product cannibalization, as the low-caloric version didn’t bring enough uniqueness to justify itself apart from the flagship Coca-Cola, ultimately reducing the market for both.

In politics, a similar scenario is unfolding for Sara Duterte as she lays the groundwork for the 2028 presidential election. She inherits much of the political legacy that already defines the Marcos-Duterte alliance but without a clear, compelling differentiation from President Bongbong Marcos, her erstwhile partner. Much like the floundering product lines of Crystal Pepsi and Diet Coke, Sara’s political brand risks cannibalizing the same voter base she hopes to inherit. Bongbong and Sara come from the same now-defunct UniTeam, with overlapping ideologies and promises (remember P20 per kilo rice), leaving voters confused and hesitant. Without a clear identity, Sara faces the same fate as many ill-fated products that failed due to lack of distinction – overshadowed by the existing brand she shares with Bongbong.

The Marketing “Cannibalization” Metaphor in Political Context

In marketing, cannibalization refers to the phenomenon: a new product introduced by a company competes with and reduces the sales of its existing products. It’s a tricky situation – the goal is often to introduce new offerings to grow the brand. Without proper differentiation, the product could end up simply eating into the sales of the old one, resulting in a net loss for the company.

Now let’s apply this metaphor to politics. Sara represents the new product; Bongbong, the existing one. Both come from the same political brand – UniTeam – and thus share a lot of the same attributes: populist rhetoric, pro-Duterte and pro-Marcos values, and a promise to continue the legacies of their respective families. The challenge here is clear: while Sara aspires to succeed Bongbong in 2028, the lack of distinct political differentiation between them could lead to confusion and voter cannibalization, where both leaders lose potential support.

Defunct UniTeam

Lack of Clear Differentiation: The Problem of Being Part of the Same Brand

Sara’s dilemma begins with the fact that she is part and parcel of the same political alliance that brought her to prominence: UniTeam. While the alliance was instrumental in securing both her and Bongbong’s wins in 2022, it has also tied her to his legacy and platform. As a result, she finds herself struggling to establish a distinct identity. Sara, despite her own personal and political strengths, is inevitably associated with her father’s bloody legacy and the Marcos family’s controversial history. This overlap in political identity makes it difficult for her to carve out a space of her own.

Key Attributes that Overlap

When we talk about the overlap, it’s not just about shared political views – it’s the entire package: the promises of continuity in governance, the appeal to loyal Duterte supporters, and the overlapping electoral bases. These similarities create a situation where voters might see no need to choose one. Why pick Sara when she embodies the same platform and appeal as Bongbong? Without a clear shift in message, Sara risks being viewed as just another iteration of the same UniTeam product – someone who doesn’t offer anything distinctly different.

Consequences of a Lack of Differentiation

Voter Confusion. Imagine a critical-thinking voter sitting at the ballot box, trying to decide between Sara and Bongbong’s anointed successor (AS). If both are seen like two peas in a pod, how will voters decide who to support? The overlap .in their political identities makes it unclear to the electorate what separates the two candidates. This ambiguity can lead to frustration, as voters struggle to understand the unique qualities of each candidate, causing a possible delay in decision-making, or, worse, apathy toward the election.

Reduced Loyalty. When voters cannot differentiate between the candidates, their loyalty to both may diminish. This is especially problematic in our political landscape where loyalty to a particular family – whether the Marcoses or the Dutertes – often dictates voting patterns. If voters are unsure of how Sara differs from Bongbong’s AS, they may begin to feel less attached to both candidates. This erosion of loyalty opens the door to other presidential hopefuls who might provide clearer differentiation and more compelling narratives. Voters may start looking elsewhere for candidates who promise something truly new or different, leading to a shift in support away from Sara and Bongbong’s AS.

Votes Cannibalization. Without distinct identities, Sara and Bongbong’s AS will cannibalize each other’s voter base. The danger here is that voters who are loyal to UniTeam then may find it difficult to decide between the two, resulting in split votes between them. The situation would benefit candidates outside the Marcos-Duterte alliance who offer a clearer contrast. For example, if the electorate cannot discern a tangible reason to choose Sara over Bongbong’s AS (or vice versa), both may see their votes diluted, leading to a net loss. This “cannibalization” effect could diminish their overall strength, weakening both candidates’ chances of winning in 2028.

Potential Solutions for Sara’s Campaign Strategy

To avoid the perils of political cannibalization, Sara needs to find ways to differentiate herself from Bongbong - better late than never.

Strategic Differentiation. Sara could emphasize policies or leadership qualities that set her apart.  Perhaps she can lean into a more youthful, dynamic vision for the country, positioning herself as someone capable of bringing generational change while still respecting her father’s legacy.

Building a Distinct Political Brand. It will be crucial to create a brand that distinguishes her from Bongbong. Sara could present herself as more independent, offering fresh perspectives on issues. By signaling that she’s not just a continuation of Bongbong’s leadership but a fresh face with her agenda, she could capture the electorate seeking change.

Unless her looming impeachment doesn’t eat her alive, Sara may struggle to survive until the bitter end. Much like the short-lived Crystal Pepsi, it could result in her swift disappearance from the Philippine political arena.

Content & editing put together in collaboration with ChatGPT

Head photo courtesy of iStock

Crystal Pepsi collage photos courtesy of You Tube, Ranker, Pepsi Crystal, & Thrillist

Still photos courtesy of Jiji Press, Facebook, Depositphotos, & Pinterest

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