WHEN THE MESSENGER BECOMES THE MESSAGE

 

Today, I no longer take pleasure in numbers -- my classroom staple then – not the calculation, but the recollection. I am an engineer; that‘s the irony. But, I am a senior citizen too; perhaps, that the reality.

For example, I can’t memorize my cell phone numbers, nor my kids’ birthdays (save my wife’s, of course, otherwise I’ll be in big trouble). I’ve never made an effort a bit in committing them to my memory because I’ve figured I could read them in my phone notes anyway (also my accountant wife, a good record keeper, can give me any of those numbers and dates anytime). Rather than recalling, I‘ve felt I have a passion for creating things in my mind: a typical case of the popular left-brain/right-brain myth during my corporate heyday then.

Perhaps, the neurologists’ claim provides a good reason for my willful sloppiness: our brains are not designed to remember numbers. In fact, according to these specialists, neither are our brains equipped to stockpile and retrieve a bulk of details at all. So, if we’re studying for any exam, it would be pointless for us to try to store in our brains all the numbers we need to memorize because our brains are, by any means, incapable to do so.

The root cause why numbers are so hard to memorize: they are abstract and unable to spark off emotional attachment to us.

To fix this dilemma, we need to create an association with numbers to remember them more effectively. For example, if we want to memorize the number “2386,” we can take the first two numbers “23” and think of Michael Jordan – his NBA jersey number. The “86” we could associate with EDSA Revolution that happened in 1986. That four-digit number “2386” could be effectively recalled by the “Jordan Edsa” name. There are other useful tricks, but here’s the bottom line: it’s hard to remember numbers.

That’s why, when I read Inez Ponce de Leon’s column about VP Leni’s gaffes being circulated online by the so-called Person from the Academic Community (PAC), it bewildered me. It’s much ado about nothing.

Let’s tackle them. Two gaffes deal with numbers: VP Leni once said that the Philippines had 1,700 islands and 40 x 4 = 1600. As I said above, it’s hard to memorize numbers, yet, VP Leni got all the four numbers correct – she only exchanged places of the first two digits – a common slip in memory. It is worthy to note that she referred to an old rounded figure of 7100. The new exact figure by the National Mapping and Resource Information Authority is 7641: additional islets appeared due to the changing landform detected by the new mapping technology. VP Leni was not a Miss Universe candidate like Charlene Gonzales who answered the question "How many islands are in the Philippines?" with "High tide or low tide?" to impress the judges.

For gaffe “40 x 4 = 1600”: VP Leni got the three numbers correct but added 0. If memorizing numbers is hard enough, much more in multiplying them in our minds. Besides, she’s a lawyer, not an engineer.

For gaffe “IV needles are inserted into nerves”: First time I ran into that gaffe, here’s my train of thought: Ok, if it’s wrong, what’s the correct answer? I could not find it in my “fast-thinking system 1 mind,” so I needed to find it in my “slow-thinking system 2 mind.” I found it: either a vein or an artery. My system 2 mind was unsure though of the specific vessel that carries the flow of blood towards the heart. I needed to Google it – and found the answer – the vein. VP Leni is a lawyer, not a doctor, just like me. The last time I came upon the words “vein” and “artery” was in my High School Biology class. My wife knows the answer right away because she has hypertension. (To get to know more about systems 1 & 2, you may read my ATABAY article “Juan Tamad Within Us May Elect Our Next President.)

For gaffe “destructive force of floodwaters is due to strong electric current.” Owing to some “impulsive” reason, I think VP Leni could have said the statement using her fast-thinking system 1 that impulsively reacts. That is, just as her system 1 impulsively finishes off the phrase “bread and ___” with a “butter,” so too, it impulsively fills the blank on the phrase “___ current” with “electric.”

Leaders are just human too, prone to commit petty human errors.

Former US Vice-President Dan Quayle misspelled “potato” adding an “e” to the end of the word – a gaffe heard across the globe. A 12-year old beat him at a school spelling contest of sorts during a speaking engagement.

Former US President Obama, when asked about his bowling game, said he’s fit for the Special Olympics [for physically and intellectually disabled].

US President Joe Biden is hopeful for the “past” when he said, “I refuse to accept the notion that the United States of America is not going to lead the world economically throughout the 20^th century.”

So far, the message we untangled. Let’s deal with the messenger. As a writer, I am mindful of this proposition: “Don’t shoot the messenger”

When I decided to take the political route in my writing journey, I put together an ATABAY article “Discernment: What We All Need To Heal Our Land.” Without looking into PAC’s journalistic background and having been unable to read his past newspaper articles, I took from his column an excerpt whose profound content and impressive prose fitted my narrative like a glove. I did it again in my succeeding article “Three Converging Opportunities To Transform PH In 2022 Election” because of his objective criticism of Marcos Jr.

Soon after, his writings seemed to have turned personal. At that point, the words of Abraham Joshua Heschel have come to pass: “Man is a messenger who forgot the message.”

PAC shrouded his fierce criticism of VP Leni that has been getting too personal and deep-rooted by his so-called “epiphany” -- publicly declaring “not to openly support and endorse any candidate.” As his standard, he has been projecting an image of perfection on VP Leni persona that she doesn’t claim, in the first place. Lopsidedly, he has been criticizing her trivial shortcomings too petty vis-à-vis that of Marcos Jr’s wrongdoings. PAC’s context was too far-fetched. In a typical corporate workplace, I still have to come across an actual case where a professional interviewer asks a job applicant tricky questions to catch him or her in a “gotcha” moment.

Sad to say, PAC’s latest column on VP Leni’s gaffes and his circulating it on the internet appears to be professionally out of bounds. He has transformed himself from the messenger into THE message.

MARCOS JR. HAS BUILT HIS PRESIDENTIAL HOUSE ON THE SAND

 

“Safe upon the solid rock the ugly houses stand. Come and see my shining palace built upon the sand.” – Edna St. Vincent Millay

A. SAND OF FALSEHOOD

“The best lies about me are the ones I told.” – Patrick Rothfuss, The Name of the Wind

“Above all, don’t lie to yourself. The man who lies to himself and listens to his own lies comes to a point that he cannot distinguish the truth within him, or around him, and so loses all respect for himself and for others. And having no respect he ceases to love.” – Fyodor Dostoevsky, The Brothers Karamazov

Samples of Fact-checked Claims:

1. PH was NOT the top country in Asia economically during the Marcos’ regime, nor ranked second to Japan.

2. Marcos Sr. did NOT have the highest bar score grade in PH history at 98.01%.

3. Marcos Sr. was NOT awarded by the Americans for fighting the Japanese during WW II.

4. Marcos Sr. was NOT accorded “the best president of all time” by the Guinness World Records, but for the “greatest robbery of a government” amounting to $5 billion to $10 billion.

5. Marcos Jr. did NOT graduate and obtain a Bachelor’s degree from Oxford, but a Special Diploma in Social Studies. Solita Collas-Monsod referred to it as “a consuelo de bobo for dropouts.”

6. Marcos’ years were NOT the “golden age”: The economy grew by an average rate of only 3.8% and inflation reached 50.3% in 1984 due to “Marcos’ pernicious policy of debt-driven growth ($500M debt grew 46 times to $26B) and crony capitalism.”

B. SAND OF BADNESS

“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled [i.e. suckered] long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozled. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozled has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark.

Samples of Marcos’ Badness:

1. In 2003, the Supreme Court ruled that a total of US$658 million in Swiss bank accounts and foreign foundations owned by the Marcoses were unlawfully acquired.

2. In 2012, the Supreme Court ruled that the Marcoses used a dummy Panamanian corporation Arelma Inc. to manage and hide ill-gotten wealth worth US$3.37 million at Merrill Lynch Asset Management, forfeited in favor of PH govt.

3. In Sept 2021, the Sandiganbayan ordered Royal Trading Holding Co., Inc. to return the ill-gotten PH bank deposits of P96 million and $5.4 million, with a 12% annual interest the bank received from Marcos and his associates from 1974 to 1986.

4. Marcos Jr. failed to file his income taxes from 1982 to 1985, convicted both in the trial court and in the Court of Appeal (final and executory).

5. John Maxwell’s Leadership Law of Magnetism: Who You Are Is Who You Attract

(Taken from Joel Ruiz Butuyan PDI “Flea Market Of Ideas” column)

a) Joseph Estrada, convicted, P400 million plunder, Sandiganbayan, 2007

b) Gloria Arroyo, charged, P366 million plunder, acquitted by controversial SC decision

c) Ramon Revilla Jr., charged, P224 million, acquitted by controversial Sandiganbayan decision

d) Jinggoy Estrada, on trial, P183 million plunder

e) Juan Ponce Enrile, pending case, P172 million plunder

Birds of the same feather flock together.

C. SAND OF SURVEY FOLLY

“There are three types of lies – lies, damn lies, and statistics.” – Benjamin Disraeli

“[T]he emerging campaign for the coming elections is being compromised by… deliberate thought manipulation… misuse of certain polls and surveys that may not necessarily reflect and represent true voter preferences.” – FVR’s 23 former cabinet officials that endorsed VP Leni’s presidency

Alert: Campaign operatives have resorted to terms like “study” and “research” to sound like science instead of “polls” and “surveys” that have been discredited by their recent failures worldwide.

Let’s get back to basics. A pollster/survey conductor wants to figure out the opinions of the total voter population as to who they will vote for president if an election is held on the day of the survey. Next to an impossible goal. Solution: without having to ask every single voter the question, he will only ask a subset (sample) of the total voter population.

In PH typical election survey, the pollster will ask 3,600 people (sample survey respondents) the question and will presume their answers to represent the diversity of the total voter population of 63 million voters all over the country, spread throughout 42,046 barangays, and voting in 389,703 separate polling precincts. This implies that each respondent’s answer represents the answers of 17,500 voters (63 million/3,600).

The required “random sampling” should simulate this concrete illustration. Let’s say 1,500 customers (internet average figure) go to McDonald’s daily. The pollster assumes that the demographic information of the one survey respondent represents the demographic information of all the customers that go to McDonald’s for 11 (17,500 /1,500) days as to age, education, marital status, political affiliation, among others. The same assumption applies to each of the 3,599 respondents.

“Marcos Jr. tops the survey at 60%.” What does it mean? For the pollster, it means that 2,160 (i.e. 60% of 3,600) respondents voted for Marcos Jr. and it is presumed that a total of 37,800,000 (i.e. 60% of 63 million) voters all over the country will vote for Marcos Jr.

The term that’s taking shape at this point: Improbability, if not incredulous.

Moreover, we have still biases to consider which can alter the whole results: sampling bias, response & non-response biases, question order & information biases.

In PH, for example, the nonresponse bias has been induced by the EJK culture of fear. In the US, it’s social desirability bias: pro-Trump Evangelicals have shied away from his immorality scandal issue, thereby have stayed away from survey.

The use of cell phones diminishes participation in surveys due to the surge of telemarketing calls. Besides, many cell phone operating systems block incoming phone numbers or warn users from potential scammers, fraudsters, or spammers. Sensing intrusion on their time and privacy, people have steered clear of the surveys.

Mark Mellman who helped elect 30 US senators, 12 governors, and dozens of House members said, “Question can be asked. Answers will be given and transformed into numbers. It’s seductive; it looks like science. But we now know definitely that answers to questions about where people obtain their political information are so inaccurate as to be worthless.”

In the light of the recent polling and survey “black eye” worldwide, uncompromising critics have propounded:

1. Polling or survey is irrevocably broken

2. Pollsters and polling purveyors should be ignored

3. The polling industry is a wreck and should be blown up

Let me conclude this article with a Bible passage.

“But everyone who hears these words of mine and does not put them into practice is like a foolish man who built his house on sand. The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house, and it fell with a great crash.” (Matthew 7:26-27)

Would Marcos Jr.’s presidential house fall with a great crash? Let’s wait and see.

KRIS AQUINO: WHAT WOULD GOD SAY

 

To write or not to write, that’s the question I’d been dealing with after I got off from over two decades of blood, sweat, and tears in the corporate world. It’s not as existential a question as Hamlet’s “To be or not to be” since I love writing. But, where would I write? The answer: my blog.

Those were my first lines in my ATABAY article “What’s In A Name?” I launched five months ago. After my 15^th article “The Interview Question That Almost Denied Our US Visa Applications,” I ran out of compelling personal stories to share with my readers and wondered what I would write about next.

I surfed the internet and found a sample list of hot topics of 2022 popular blogs: food, travel, health and fitness, lifestyle, fashion and beauty, photography, personal, do-it-yourself craft, parenting, music. I am at home with only two: personal and parenting. Sad to say, for personal, as I said, I ran out of stories, and I‘m also no celebrity; for parenting, I lost touch of it decades ago.

My daughter Jan Kristy advised me to go into showbiz tidbits. I sighed. I stressed what matters to me -- my articles are read (liked or disliked) – for they are the finished product of a laborious thinking process. Ultimately, I decided to take the political route because of the looming presidential election, and subsequently published my 16^th article: “My Two Cents Worth of View: PH 2022 Election Dynamics.”

In today’s 41st article, I’ll be weighing up Kris Aquino -- not to be a magnet for showbiz chatterers – but looking on her with a fresh perspective wearing a pair of spiritual eyeglasses.

I don’t know Kris personally. Not a showbiz devotee, I know a bit of her only through the pages of books I read like “Impossible Dream: The Marcoses, The Aquinos, And The Unfinished Revolution” by Sandra Burton as excerpted below:

Kris as a Kiddie Messenger of Hope

“In January 1973, in an attempt to rally public opinion outside the Philippines to the plight of the Filipino people, Ninoy [Aquino] began smuggling letters from his [prison] cell to members of the foreign press.

“'There was a mirror on the wall in the visitors’ house,' explains daughter Ballsy [Aquino]. 'He [Ninoy] would go to the bathroom and leave it there. When we would arrive, we would pretend that Kris [the youngest Aquino child] needed to go, and I would take her in and get it.'

“They would insert the thin, folded sheets of paper inside candy wrappers, in the space between the vacuum bottle and the shell of thermos jugs full of juice, or between the layers of gauze in their sanitary napkins.

“One of the letters which Ballsy carried out in a pocketful of wrapped candies in February 1973 was headlined in the Bangkok Post a few days later. Its brutal analysis of the [Marcos] regime was widely quoted elsewhere in the world press. Not long afterward a military officer appeared at the door of the Aquino’s ranch-style home on Times Street in Quezon City, and handed Cory [Aquino] Ninoy’s prison clothes, watch, glasses, and wedding ring, saying only, ‘He won’t need these anymore.’

“For the next forty-one days, no one would tell her where her husband was or whether he was dead or alive.”

Kris as a Seven-Year-Old Activist

“[T]he campaign logo of Lakas ng Bayan, Laban (Fight) for short, was a pair of chained fists. Ninoy’s surrogate campaigners were Cory and seven-year-old Kris, whose slogan  ‘Help My Daddy Come Home’ was so effective that the military, in a perverse attempt to counter it, distributes anonymous handbills depicting a child whose father could never come home, because he had been killed by Ninoy.”

            Kris as a Twelve-Year-Old Aquino “Jedi”: Heir to Ninoy’s Guts

 “The mass began with a reading by the youngest of Ninoy’s children.

“'I am twelve years old and now I will say goodbye to my Dad,' was the way American-educated Kris began. Only a baby when her father was incarcerated, she had passed through much of her childhood seeing him but once or twice a week in prison. More than the others, who had known him earlier as a widely admired free man, she had therefore prized the family’s three 'super happy years in Boston,' highlighted by such new experiences as gathering autumn leaves, shoveling snow, and seeing Return of the Jedi with her father. Referring to Ninoy’s observation that she was the child who most took after him in her desire to be 'surrounded by many people,' she concluded, 'He likes guts. Thanks for all the happiness you have given me.'”

Kris as a Thirteen-Year-Old Trend-Setter

“Not knowing what would appeal, I [Author Burton] had protectively booked tables at the best French and Chinese restaurants along the waterfront. Without telling her [Cory] about the reservations, I suggested two possibilities, then deferred to thirteen-year-old Kris, who was with us. 'Steak and baked potato,' was her unequivocal choice. 'She has become such an American,' groaned Cory about the tastes her youngest daughter had developed during her formative years in exile in Boston…

                         “Kris made fun of her extravagance, and Cory retorted with a list of the brand-              name clothing and accessories for which her style-conscious daughter had begged all            day. It was a typical mother-daughter conversation, in which both seemed to revel.”

Today, Kris is faced with a personal crisis on her present health condition that has been bannered recently: “Kris Aquino ‘far from OK’.” But her words have been unflinching: “For me, weakness could never be an option… I will never surrender.” What would God say about such “weakness”? Apostle Paul’s “thorn in the flesh” answers that question.

“I asked the Lord three times about this [thorn in the flesh]. But He said to me:

“‘My grace is enough for you, for my power is made perfect in weakness.’

“So then, I will boast most gladly about my weakness, so that the power of Christ may reside in me. Therefore I am content with weaknesses, with insults, with troubles, with persecutions and difficulties for the sake of Christ, for whenever I am weak, then I am strong.” (2 Corinthians 12:8-10)

Weighing up spiritually such “weakness” – as God’s power made perfect – Kris, in her damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don’t “Queen of All Media” status, ought not to care about what others are saying. One-on-one, she is now dealing with God whose words – from the Bible -- are the only ones that must matter in her thoughts, words, and deeds, by way of her discernment.

Finally, Kris as a Politician

“Kris was the one in whom Ninoy’s political genes were the most apparent. Her nurturing in and around her father’s prison cell had reinforced whatever natural gifts she had inherited. Sensing that her mother was now drifting inexorably into politics, Kris saw no reason why she shouldn’t shoot for the top. 'I would like Mom to be president, so we could live in Malacanang,' she said. Cory reacted in mock horror to her proposal, which she had heard before.

“She [Cory] had a ready answer, which, interestingly enough, did not exclude the presidency, but merely the venue. She would stay in her own house and use the palace only for protocol functions. ‘That’s what Ninoy always said he would do, and that’s what would I do,’ she said. Kris reacted negatively, accusing her mother of being hopelessly old-fashioned. They sparred good-naturedly for a few moments, but Cory concluded the hypothetical discussion on a serious note: ‘I really think Filipinos are ready for someone who would show restraint.'”

Kris, you’re on the right side of history to endorse VP Leni. May God’s power be made perfect in your weakness!

REVIVAL: JUAN TAMAD WITHIN US MUST BE AWAKENED AND TRANSFORMED

 

This is a sequel to my previous article “Juan Tamad Within Us May Elect Our Next President.” As a backgrounder, let me repost the concluding part of my previous article

The crux of the matter: The need to “engage” the 70% of the voter population in their Slow Thinking System 2 minds on election education is crucial. The 30% is the bulk of voters presumed to have fallen prey to disinformation purveyors and their Fast Thinking System 1 mind taken over.

Let me conclude this mind-boggling article with M. Scott Peck’s grim words:

“One of the major dilemmas we face as individuals and as a society is simplistic thinking (Fast Thinking System 1 of Juan Tamad) – or the failure to think at all. It is not a problem; it is the problem.”

In this sequel, I would like to add my two-cent worth of idea on mitigating the problem. The 70% problem area I believe could be taken care of by the programs and resources of various private, religious, academic, non-governmental, cause-oriented groups and institutions under the umbrella of our nation’s civil society. The 30% problem area – a tough job – has invited my interest whose nature and complexity can be defined by this statement:

To argue with anyone about his or her belief in Marcos’s history revisionism could go nowhere, any more than to argue with an atheist about his or her disbelief in God could go in a vicious circle.

Let me take the case narrated by PDI columnist Mart del Rosario about his friend Alex’s conversation with a lady who inquired where he was going.

“To San Fernando to deliver a talk on ‘Traumatic Years of Bagong Lipunan’,” he said.

“Ha! I’m an unbeliever of the Hate Marcos Cult,” the woman said.

Alex was silent for a while, then asked:

“Have you read Primitivo Mijares?”

“No,” the woman said.

Arillo?”

“No.”

“Sionel Jose?”

“Who he? No.”

“Dr. Maslog?”

“No.”

“Some Are Smarter Than Others?”

“No.”

“Then, Madam, you are not an unbeliever, you are just ignorant.”

Let me present a parallel hypothetical scenario of my own with a lady inquiring where I am going.

Me: To San Fernando to deliver a talk on “What It Means to be A Christian.”

The parallelism with Alex’s case – the irresistible force meeting an immovable object -- is noteworthy. For Alex, as an anti-Marcos Martial Law Years advocate, the stake is a vote; for me, as a Couples for Christ member, a soul. Not as an interruption, the lady I take both as a challenge and an opportunity.

Lady: Ha! I’m an unbeliever of Christianity.

Without saying anything, I smile and offer her peppermint candy which I always bring with me on the road to calm my motion sickness. She smiles and says, “Thanks.” I nod politely. In less than no time, she asks, “What’s your talk all about?” All at once, I share my talk with an audience of one on the road.

In Christendom, the above simplified hypothetical scenario exemplifies the essence of

Servant Evangelism = Deeds of Kindness + Words of Love + Adequate Time

In the thick of its meanings and implications, the equation’s key principle: Deeds come before Words. That is, a deed of kindness, even how small (like sharing the peppermint candy) it is, could create “phone wires” in transmitting God’s words of love -- in Alex’s case, love of country. Stephen Covey, author of Seven Basic Habits of Highly Effective People called the “peppermint candy” an emotional bank deposit – investing trust in a new relationship (with a stranger in this case).

Disclaimer: The author Steve Sjogren of the Christian book Conspiracy of Kindness from which the above method is based stated he does not intend to criticize anyone who is sharing the gospel in other ways and affirmed that the state of evangelism today doesn’t demand a few good ideas but a hundred. Just as Steve does not intend to criticize anyone, so too this article does not call into question Alex’s method that cut the lady down to size.

Adequate Time.

We need to allow time for deeds and words to have their effect on the lady’s mind and heart. How long would they take? Nobody knows. As the proverbial phrase goes: Time will tell. In the equation, Adequate Time is God’s domain.

All the more when we consider the 63 million voters whose System 1 and System 2 in Pinoys’ minds have been fighting each other amid the noise of the upcoming May 2022 election, let alone the swarm of disinformation. As the two Systems play off against each other in every issue, their interactions determine how we think, make judgments and decisions, and act. With just four months to go before the election, there’s so much work to do in so little time.

Let’s juxtapose excerpts of the 2022 events predictions of Jarius Bondoc in his Philstar’s Gotcha column:

“Fake news and historical revisionism will dominate the election campaign. Candidates with the least credentials will concoct accomplishments and blur dark pasts. Online media will be the primary means for falsities, and computer analytics will be used to pinpoint which big lies to reiterate to look true.

“Political dynasts will lead the popularity polls for president, VP, congressmen, and local posts. Senatorial favorites will be the old names. Party-lists will violate election rules by promoting not their advocacies but names of nominees.”

Plus PH now is declared as “critical risk” for Covid-19 and Metro Manila is in a “severe outbreak” of the pandemic.

So grim, the total outlook is.

“What is happening to our country?” Crawling out of the car riddled with bullets, then Foreign Affairs Minister Emmanuel Pelaez uttered those words moments before he was wheeled inside the operating room with four bullets piercing his back and neck. What can be more relevant today than those excruciating words?

Charles Colson in his book Kingdoms in Conflict: An Insider’s Challenging View of Politics, Power, and the Pulpit, described Cardinal Sin:

“He saw his role as a spiritual, not a political leader. Sin had been studying the Book of Chronicles. He saw in the account of Israel’s corrupt leaders parallel with the grief his nation was enduring. 'When God wants to punish a people, he reasoned, He gives them unjust rulers. Like Marcos.' So the answer is for the people to repent, turn from their ways, be converted, and seek God.

“Among the lush green islands Sin preached to legions of poor farmers as well as the stylishly dressed elite. His simple message took root. His battle cry was 'Cor,' which means 'heart' – an acronym: C for true conversion, the changed life created through repentance and forgiveness from God. O stood for the offering of the obedient lives to God -- for true conversion had to make a difference in behavior. R stood for reparation – for the 'making right' required of true repentance.”

Is Cardinal Sin’s “Cor” the “revival” we need today?

JUAN TAMAD WITHIN US MAY ELECT OUR NEXT PRESIDENT

 

Marcos Jr. topped the latest survey.

If the election were held on the day of the survey, Marcos Jr. would win by a landslide.

It's likely to be a boring election in May 2022.

Question: Should we believe the message of the statements above? If we answer "Yes," then we're using only System 1 of our mind while setting aside our System 2.

System 1 and System 2 are the metaphor of the two agents that produce "fast" and "slow" thinking in our mental life described by Daniel Kahneman, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, in his book "Thinking Fast and Slow." Fast thinking System 1 operates automatically and quickly with little or no effort and no sense of voluntary control. Slow thinking System 2 allocates attention to the effortful mental activities that demand it, including complex computations.

Examples of System 1 automatic activities:

Complete the phrase "bread and..."

Answer 2 + 2 = what

Understand simple sentences

Examples of System 2:

Focus attention on the clowns in the circus

Park in a narrow space

Check complex argument's validity.

Question: Why would we set aside our System 2?

1. Mental operations of Slow Thinking System 2 are effortful

"[Slow] Thinking is difficult... complex... process with a course or direction, a lapse of time, and a series of steps or stages that lead to some result. To think well is a laborious, often painstaking process until one becomes accustomed to being 'thoughtful'." (M. Scott Peck, M.D. author of The Road Less Traveled)

2. Laziness is built deep into our human nature.

A general "law of least effort" asserts that if there are several ways of achieving the same goal, people will eventually gravitate to the least demanding course of action. Exhibit A: Juan Tamad Mentality

"[L]aziness. It is very real. It exists in every one of us – infants, children, adolescents, mature adults, the elderly, the wise or the stupid; the lame or the whole. Some of us may be less lazy than others, but we are all lazy to some extent. No matter how energetic, ambitious, or even wise we may be, if we truly look into ourselves we will find laziness lurking at some level. It is the force of entropy within us..." (Peck)

Consequently, our laziness holds us back to research and come up with the following survey facts:

Fact 1. Surveys are unreliable

Across the world, recent high-profile election survey failures are as follows: Britain and Israel elections in 2015, Brexit referendum in 2016, Colombia referendum in 2016, France election in 2017, Argentina election in 2019, US elections in 2016 and 2020.

The New York Times bannered such failures: "'A Black Eye': Why Political Polling Missed the Mark. Again." Politico's widely followed "Playbook" newsletter was notably scathing: "The polling industry is a wreck and should be blown up." Polling innovator Warren Mitofsky's blast from the past is a wise reminder: "There's a lot of room for humility in polling. Every time you get cocky, you lose."

Jose Ma. Montelibano's PDI column "Improbability" has triggered this amazement: Amid the recent failures of highly sophisticated election surveys in the first world nations around the world, wonder of wonders, our own local latest surveys have raved about hitting their targets with identical results as dictated by the opinions of 1,200 people (OCTA sample size) presumed to represent the opinions of the 63 million voters across the nation.

Fact 2. Surveys are biased.

A study "Why Polls Fail to Predict Elections" by Zhenkun Zhou et al., 2021, published in the Journal of Big Data, revealed:

"We find that a poor demographic representation combined with the inconsistency of opinion's respondents before and after the elections are the main reasons of the polls' failure. Beyond this sampling problem, the main problem we find is a clear tendency for the respondents to not tell the truth about their preference. This social-desirability bias was the main culprit for the failure of the polls."

In PH, the culprit is "nonresponse bias" where people have shown no interest in participating in the surveys. With the respondent's name and address known to the interviewer conducting the face-to-face interview, UP Professor Randy David said, "A sizeable majority of those surveyed admit to being afraid that they could be indiscriminately tagged as drug offenders." This fear-induced "nonresponse" bias cast doubt on PRRD's surveyed popularity ratings that might be the root of the Bato and Go endorsement flops ending in an embarrassing situation where the administration has no presidential candidate in an election.

Fact 3. Surveys are mental conditioning tools.

Sen. Richard Gordon filed a case many years ago against SWS and Pulse Asia for releasing pre-election survey results. He stressed:

"These surveys serve no public purpose except to rob the people of their right to be able to engage in a mental exercise where they can gauge their candidate's capability. It is mental conditioning in no uncertain terms."

These questionable and biased pre-election surveys have become the staple of political pundits' hair-splitting analyses. Here's a dire implication mentioned in Kahneman's book:

"When people believe a conclusion (survey results) is true, they are also very likely to believe arguments that appear to support it, EVEN WHEN THESE ARGUMENTS ARE UNSOUND" (underscoring mine).

Soon after, social media "echo chambers" would turn up repeating such unsound arguments multiple times to become believable to voters induced by "familiarity." Singer & Brooking, authors of the book Like War: Weaponization of Social Media, stressed:

"What counted most was FAMILIARITY (underscoring mine). The more often you hear a claim, the less likely you are to assess it critically." Exhibit A: Women are weak

Kahneman asserted:

"A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent REPETITION (underscoring mine) because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth. Authoritarian institutions and [campaign operatives] have always known this fact." 

A Case Of Being Stuck In A Fast-Thinking System 1 Mind

Taken from Inez Ponce de Leon's PDI column "The myth of the soft woman," this illustrative situation was about the conversation of Inez and her ride-hailing driver.

Driver (D): I want to vote for her. But she's a woman.

Inez (I): Why do you say, "But she's a woman"?

D: A woman is soft.

I: Why is that wrong?

D: Because the president of a country has to be strong and noble, right?

I: Why do you think this is important?

D: Because I'm a man!

I: So, are you voting for yourself or the country?

D: Oh, ma'am. Did you see what the Department of Health did last week?

Daniel Kahneman's topic on "Substituting Questions" fits the above situation like a glove. The driver's Fast Thinking System 1 mind could not answer Inez's last hard question that needed to engage his Slow Thinking System 2 mind. He looked around his System 1 a related easier question (say, "As a father, isn't voting for my family right?"). Amusingly, the driver could not find a substitute easy question like that in his System 1 to keep him away from Inez's attempt to engage his Slow Thinking System 2. Instead, he just diverted outright the topic by asking an off the subject question. A not uncommon incident in the light of the coming May 2022 election, such barren conversations have proliferated over the dinner tables across the country.

The crux of the matter: The need to "engage" the 70% of the voter population in their Slow Thinking System 2 minds on election education is crucial. The 30% is the bulk of voters presumed to have fallen prey to disinformation purveyors and their Fast Thinking System 1 mind taken over.

Let me conclude this mind-boggling article with M. Scott Peck's grim words:

"One of the major dilemmas we face as individuals and as a society is simplistic thinking (Fast Thinking System 1 mind of Juan Tamad) – or the failure to think at all. It is not a problem; it is the problem."

THE OLD HAS PASSED AWAY THE NEW HAS COME

 

Happy New Year 2022!

As I compose now my first ATABAY blog article for the New Year, the Catholic Church celebrates the Epiphany – the manifestation of God represented by the Magi. Serendipitously, let me share with you my personal rare experience that happened more than three decades ago – my epiphany.

Right after my routine annual medical check-up, I got a call from our company clinic to go through another chest x-ray exam. Something out of the ordinary, the call worried me a bit. After I had finished my x-ray exam, our company doctor talked to me about the matter. Being my close peer, he casually gave me a not-to-worry chat obviously to keep up my spirits. He told me it would take a couple of months to get rid of the ugly spot on my lung. One dreadful question preying then on my mind: What if the spot lingers after the prescribed period of treatment? But I didn’t raise such a question. I was scared of the implication our doctor would let out – the Big C – the likely horrid outgrowth of my smoking vice.

In the months that followed, the What-If question turned into a proverbial “Damocles’ Sword” hanging over my head, waiting to drop at the end of the treatment period. The ominous mental picture consequently stirred up inside me a Why-Me-Lord torment, living through, in fear and trembling, the agonizing stages of a Personal Crisis: Shock. Denial. Withdrawal. Resignation. Acceptance.

The impact of my initial shock hit me as hard as a heavy vault containing my vain treasures: good curriculum vitae, thriving career, stable job, fine family, beautiful wife, promising kids, decent community standing, and rosy future. In contrast with such ocean-deep personal showpieces stamped with p-r-i-d-e, my skin-deep intimacy with God then was a parachute style of relationship stamped with a when-all-is-well-who-needs-God escape clause. My torment in living through each stage of my crisis cast an image of the proverbial grain of wheat falling to the ground and dying – dying to my prideful self. What would I need the vault of treasures for when I was staring eyeball-to-eyeball with death prospect?

I felt like falling into an abyss, groping for anything I could get hold of. All of a sudden, a hand, seemingly dropped from the clouds, reached out to me. It was a hand of a Born-Again Christian friend, Louie. What followed was a seven-year spiritual journey with my friend and his community abounding in spiritual growth and maturity: prayer, fellowship, worship, discipleship, cover-to-cover Bible personal reading, quiet times, and spiritual healing sessions, among others. Had not our leader Pastor Ernie and his wife Fe taken a mission task in a foreign land, our spiritual journey could have trodden a path, far and wide.

What happened then to the spot in my lung? Strange to say, in the course of my spiritual journey, I lost track of it. When I got to the Acceptance stage of my crisis, what I did accept was not the reality of cancer, but the Lordship of Jesus Christ that my friend instilled in me in the form of a question: "Do you accept Jesus Christ as your Lord and Savior!" After I answered "Yes," the spot was gradually banished, not from my lung, but in my thoughts. Praise the Lord! The x-ray exam after my treatment later indicated it was only a typical lung infection.

It is worthy to note that I am a Catholic and my friend and his community are Born-Again Christians. We kept off squabbles by setting aside doctrinal differences by our friendship -- we simply didn't want to hurt each other. In our group sharing, the power of kindness balanced out the impulse of being right. Turning into the heart of ecumenical thinking, Pope John XXIII said, "What separates us as believers in Christ is much less than what unites us." One adage calls to mind: "In essentials, unity; in non-essentials, liberty; in all things, charity."

Having "been there, done that" too, it won't astonish me today to come across Ninoy Aquino's conversion story in Charles Colson's book "Kingdoms in Conflict: An Insider's Challenging View of Politics, Power, and the Pulpit" as excerpted below:

"Prison had, for [Ninoy] Aquino, the same bewildering effect it has held for so many others. He lost all sense of direction and perspective. He became bitter not only at Marcos but at the world, even at God. He hated everyone and his prison guards goaded him on. They sometimes put his dinner plate on the ground and let a mongrel dog wolf part of it down; then, kicking the dog aside, they gave what was left to Aquino. He lost forty pounds. He suffered two heart attacks. When he was not longing for revenge, he wanted to die.

"His mother, deeply concerned, send him a book, the memoirs of another prisoner. It was my story – Born Again.

"At first Aquino looked at it with little appetite. Watergate was poorly understood outside America. Nonetheless, there were similarities in our careers. So Aquino read the book – and it touched him.

"He read how I too had lost everything and entered the disorienting, mocking maze of prison. But God had shown me that such losses were not in vain as I found my true life in Christ.

"Aquino began to search for the meaning I had found. A voracious reader, he poured over the Bible and other Christian books. He found great inspiration in a little classic, The Imitation of Christ by Thomas a Kempis. He was surprised to discover in reading the works of early Filipino hero, Jose Rizal, that the same book had motivated his life and struggle for his country.

"One night Aquino knelt in his jail cell and gave his life to Jesus Christ. Overcome with grief for his anger toward God, he begged forgiveness. His viewpoints, his life, most of all his bitterness – all changed. He had a sense that his life had suddenly moved into a different channel with another purpose.

"As Jaime Cardinal Sin of the Philippines has said, it is hard for our doubting hearts to believe that spiritual power – can change society. We know the gospel affects the lives of individuals, but can it make an impact on institutions and governments, where the heartless realities of power pierce like a knife? It is hard to fathom this.

"Nevertheless, it can happen. It does happen. One can never quite calculate how one conversion like Benigno Aquino's in a lowly prison cell may set in motion a train of events to shake a nation."

Points to Ponder: Did PH misread the EDSA Revolution as mere "People Power" not "God's Power"? As such, did PH turn the spotlight only on "People" leaving God out in the cold?

Just as God did not manifest Himself in the royal palace of Jerusalem but a lowly stable, so too, during the 1986 revolution, not in the royal palace of Malacanang, but EDSA – a place for everyone. Or, maybe, He resorted to EDSA, because of its name Epifanio De Los Santos – "epiphany of the saints" – an apparent sign of His presence.

Had PH turned the spotlight on God, Filipinos could have heeded Cardinal Sin's message of COR (heart) then: C for conversion -- changed life; O for obedience to God – changed behavior; and R for reparation – rectified wrong done.

Cardinal Sin's COR message has come with an admonition: "When God wants to punish people, He gives them unjust rulers. Like Marcos."

Would the coming May 2022 election give us a Marcos 2.0?