ELECTION SURVEY RESULTS: NEWS OR PROPAGANDA?

 

Marcos Jr. has covered all the bases: election survey results, mainstream news media headlines, and social media echo chambers.

Inquirer: "Marcos Jr. Leads Latest Pulse Asia Survey for Presidential Race"

Philstar: "Pulse Asia: Marcos' Lead Grows..."

Manila Times: "Bongbong, Sara Keep Survey Lead"

Manila Standard: "Sara Leads By A Mile For VP"

Daily Tribune: "BBM, Sara Keep Pole Positions In Surveys"

"Are we supposed to accept the results of the surveys as gospel truth? What if they are wrong?" Sen. Richard Gordon asked in his press release during the 2010 election when he formally filed a case against SWS and Pulse Asia for frequently releasing pre-election survey results at that time, stressing that such surveys had robbed the people of their right to choose their leaders wisely.

The same questions are crucial today: What if these election surveys are wrong? More questions: Do the opinions of only 2,400 people represent the whole opinion of 67 million voters spread throughout the land? Who checks the validity of these surveys? How reliable are they? Does anyone inspect and verify the election survey and the raw data used as bases for its conclusion? Does anyone know who paid for the survey?

As to the last question, Associate Justice of the Supreme Court Leonen, in his decision in the case of Social Weather Stations Inc and Pulse Asia Inc v Commission on Elections [2015] GR No 208062, has resolved that all surveys published must be accompanied by all the information required in Republic Act No. 9006, or the Fair Election Act, including the NAMES OF COMMISSIONERS, PAYORS AND SUBSCRIBERS (underscoring mine).

HEADLINE-GRABBING PROPAGANDA GALORE

Do election survey results, when publicly published and grabbed headlines, shape the voters' preferences, hence, partaking of the nature of election propaganda? Justice Leonen stressed:

"The inclusion of election surveys in the list of items regulated by the Fair Election Act is a recognition that election surveys are not a mere descriptive aggregation of data. Publishing surveys are a means to shape the preference of voters, inform the strategy of campaign machinery, and ultimately, affect the outcome of elections. ELECTION SURVEYS HAVE A SIMILAR NATURE AS ELECTION PROPAGANDA (underscoring mine). They are expensive, normally paid for by those interested in the outcome of elections, and have tremendous consequences on election results."

When a newspaper headlines a survey result, where will the news reportage end and the election propaganda begin?

Dr. Merlin R. Mann, Associate Professor of Journalism of Abilene Christian University wrote:

"[L]et's think like a reader. The readers unfold the newspaper and see what first? The photos, the HEADLINES (underscoring mine)... may be more important than any paragraph in a normal story. Headlines must be accurate: in fact, in implication, in spelling, in grammar."

Dr. Mann listed "must be correct (in fact and implication)" as the top imperative for writing headlines. In the headline writing process, she set up the TACT test: Taste – Attractiveness – Clarity – Truth.

1. Is it in good taste?

2. Does it attract the reader's attention?

3. Does it communicate clearly?

4. IS IT ACCURATE, TRUE? (Underscoring mine)

5. A single "NO" above is a veto.

Do election survey results pass the TACT test: are they accurate, true? I have two sources talking about election surveys from which we may figure out an answer.

"Question can be asked. Answers will be given and transformed into numbers. It's seductive; it looks like science. But we now know definitely that answers to questions about where people obtain their political information are so inaccurate as to be worthless." (Mark Mellman)

"The dirty little secret of... surveys is – they are largely junk science placing marketing objectives of telling and selling a good story, above the practical and ethical objective of telling the truth... Often statistical methods are misused corrupting survey results while providing an air of scientific legitimacy..." (Excerpted from the article "Surveys and Dirty Little Secret; Hidden Distortion, Bias – Illusion of Scientific Validity: Business Beware")

In fact, in the light of the recent polling and survey "black eye" worldwide, including the US 2016 & 2020 elections, uncompromising critics have propounded: a) polling or survey is irrevocably broken, and b) pollsters and polling purveyors should be ignored.

Not here in PH. Surveys have grabbed the national headlines. A free premium election campaign bonanza, Marcos Jr. has bannered such headline-grabbing surveys routinely, reaping steadily the "two strokes of luck"-- the surveys and the headlines – in both Filipino voters believe.

In the US, Real Clear Politics frequently cited by various media organizations, gets its average figure from the top 10 surveys among a horde of pollsters all over the US. For example, in presidential job approval, Real Clear Politics averages all the quality information of Rasmussen, Economist, Reuters, Politico, Gallup, GU Politics, IBD/TIPP, PPP, NPR/PBS/Marist, and NBC/Wall Street Journal, and The Hill. Here in PH, we put our whole eggs in a basket of a handful of pollsters.

While the impact of the above headline-grabbing propaganda galore is on the spot, the repercussion is far-reaching: the bandwagon effect.

BANDWAGON EFFECT

Justice Leonen asserted:

"Election surveys have been critiqued for amplifying the notion of an election as a 'horse race' and for reducing elections to the lowest common denominator of percentage points or a candidate's erstwhile share in the vote market rather than focusing on issues, principles, programs, and platforms.

"[T]here is the bandwagon effect where 'electors rally to support the candidate leading in the polls.' This 'assumes that knowledge of a popular 'tide' will likely change voting intentions in [favor] of the frontrunner, that many electors feel more comfortable supporting a popular choice, or that people accept the perceived collective wisdom of others as being enough reason for supporting a candidate.

"The bandwagon effect is of particular concern because of the observed human tendency to conform. Three mechanisms through which survey results may induce conformity have been posited:

1. Normative social influence or people's desire to adopt the majority position to feel liked and accepted or believe they are on the same winning team;

2. Informational social influence or people learning from the 'wisdom of crowds' via social proof because they 'believe that others' interpretation of an ambiguous situation is more accurate... and will help [them] choose an appropriate course of action; and

3. People resolve cognitive dissonance by switching to the side they infer is going to win based on the poll.

"'Conformity pressures can suppress minority opinion.' The bandwagon effect conjures images of an impregnable majority, thereby tending to push farther toward the peripheries of those who are already marginalized. Worse, the bandwagon effect foments the illusion of a homogeneous monolith denying the very existence of those in the minority.

"Surveys, far from being passive 'snapshot of many viewpoints held by a segment of the population at a given time,' CAN WARP EXISTING PUBLIC OPINION AND CAN MOULD PUBLIC OPINION. They are constitutive. Published election surveys offer valuable insight into public opinion not just because they represent it BUT MORE SO BECAUSE THEY ALSO TEND TO MAKE IT."

ECHO CHAMBERS

The impact on voters' preference of headline-grabbing survey results' is on-the-spot; the bandwagon effect is far-reaching, and the echo chamber is sheltered.

What is an echo chamber? It is a situation in which "beliefs are amplified or reinforced by communication and repetition inside a closed system and insulated in rebuttal." (Wikipedia)

Example: Conduct an election survey. Publish results in news headlines. Gather "pundits." Discuss results. Publish discussion in a news story: "Why Bongbong Up In Surveys? Let Pundits Explain." Pick up by other news outlets. Create a feedback loop. And go on in circles. And so on.

One striking insight by Tony La Viña, a former dean of the Ateneo School of Government caught my eye:

"Through social media, through revisionism of the Marcos legacy, through just constant positive news about [Marcos Jr.] in circles. In limited circles, micro-targeted groups of people have really bypassed the anti-Marcos ecosystem. The anti-Marcos ecosystem did not see this coming."

The gist of such insight is a challenging (or deriding?) message to the opposition taken from the title of a book about the history of Marcos' Crony Capitalism: "Some are smarter than others."

SURVEYS AND DIRTY LITTLE SECRET

“The dirty little secret of… surveys is – they are largely junk science placing marketing objectives of telling and selling a good story, above the practical and ethical objective of telling the truth… Often statistical methods are misused corrupting survey results while providing an air of scientific legitimacy…” (Excerpted from the article “Surveys and Dirty Little Secret; Hidden Distortion, Bias – Illusion of Scientific Validity: Business Beware”)

SURVEY DISCREPANCY

SWS Survey 1. Fourth Quarter 2021: 75% of Filipinos said they were satisfied with PRRD’s performance.

SWS Survey 2. Second Quarter 2021 SWS Survey: 77% of Filipinos feel poor including borderline poor.

SWS Survey 3. Second Quarter 2020 SWS Survey: 83% of Filipinos said their quality of life has worsened in the last 12 months.

At a glance, we can figure out 1 contradicts 2 & 3. This telling discrepancy happened before.

Headline 1: Women in the Philippines Have Had Enough of PRRD’s Macho’ Leadership

“Since taking office in June 2016, the 73-year old leader has ordered soldiers to shoot female rebels in the vagina, made inappropriate comments about his female Vice President’s legs, joked about raping Miss Universe, and equated having a second wife to keeping a ‘spare tire’ in the trunk of a car.”

Headline 2: Gabriela blames Duterte’s “misogyny” for “culture of rape” in PNP.

“[A] Manila police officer allegedly raped the 15-year-old daughter of a drug suspect to clear her father from drug allegations.”

Palace: PRRD’s “very good” rating shows “unshakable trust.”

“PRRD was rated ‘excellent’ in… promoting women’s rights…”

GLOBAL INDEXES

Let’s put in far-reaching global indexes:

1. Transparency International’s 2021 Corruption Perception Index. PH scored 33 out of 100, the same as the average score of Sub-Saharan Africa, and below the world average of 44. Exhibit A. Pharmally scandal. Exhibit B. Malampaya deal

2. World Justice Project’s Rule of Law, PH scored 0.46 (1 is best), ranked 102nd out of 139 countries, 13^th out of 15 in the region.

3. Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index. PH ranked 16^th out of 26 countries, the lowest comprehensive power among the ASEAN-5.

PUNDITS’ VIEWS

Let’s tag on views of Philstar columnist Alex Magno:

“The nation was plunged into its deepest recession in 2020… we had to borrow substantial amounts to cover our spending needs, raising our debt stock in the process. Our economic recovery has been in fits and starts…Things have been difficult for our people for the last two years. Unemployment and poverty rates spiked…”

“Duterte has been caricatured in the international press as some sort of mass murderer for the casualties incurred in the course of the war on drugs. A case was brought against him at the International Criminal Court.”

“The President’s handling of the complicated situation in the South China Sea… paint him a Beijing puppet unwilling to defend what we think is our territory.”

The Manila Times columnist Lito Monico C. Lorenzana’s banner speaks volumes:

“The Unravelling of the Duterte Legacy – Corruption.”

His teasing chaser on the Pharmally scandal gave away the whole shebang and left nothing to our imagination.

“[I]t seems obvious who the capo di tutti capi is – the Godfather of them all. But didn’t we know this from the start?”

GLOBAL VIEWS

The global views have been piercing like a two-edged sword as indicated by Time Magazine’s banner flashed all over the world when PRRD’s was elected as President: “Why Did the Philippines Just Elect a Guy Who Jokes About Rape as Its President?”

The New York Times bannered PRRD’s Most Contentious Quotations ranging from “Hitler massacred three million Jews. Now, there are three million drug addicts. I’d be happy to slaughter them” to “Son of a whore. I will curse you (President Obama) in the forum.”

DISSERVICE TO FILIPINOS

Anyone reading all of the above PRRD’s gross deficits (from minor GMRC to major performance-based aspects of his presidency) and to learn that SWS has attributed the opinions of 1,440 survey respondents (for being satisfied with PRRD’s performance) to the overall opinions of 75% of all Filipinos across the country could not help himself or herself to think that the extrapolated equivalence is tantamount to downgrading the Filipino intelligence and diminishing their self-respect, let alone, doing a great disservice to Filipino stature in the eyes of the world.

The SWS spokesperson ascribed PRRD’s ratings to diligence and decisiveness – given basics to the sum total of leadership -- while pundits and operatives exclaiming PRRD’s defying feat as “Phenomenal” or “Amazing” is  sycophantic. Predictably, SWS would never explain the root of the contradiction -- the so-called “survey’s dirty little secret.”

FEAR FACTOR

“Interviews are conducted face-to-face. The respondent’s name and address are known to the interviewer. The interviewer’s true purpose may be suspect to the respondent,” one pundit explained.

In view of such reality, most Filipinos today, due to PRRD’S culture of fear spawned by his brutal war on drugs, would be thinking twice in participating in surveys – a “bystander apathy” phenomenon. Not only fearful, but they are also “demotivated and lacking enthusiasm… just don’t care enough…they don’t care that they don’t care” Leon F. Seltzer Ph.D. of Psychology Today said on such human behavior. The culprit in the latest two successive US presidential election poll failures is “nonresponse bias” generated by an “unrepresentative sample” – a flawed survey condition – the same flaw our local election surveys have languished.

The net effect: PRRD’s high rating implies he is feared, not endeared. That fits PRRD’s game plan like a glove. The somber exchange between PRRD and Maria Ressa during a particular interview vouched for it.

Maria Ressa (MR): Violence and you say this you know violence is okay. Is it necessary to lead?

PRRD: Violence is my strength…until the last dragon is killed, this campaign will continue to the very last day of my term.

MR: Is it important that people be afraid of you?

PRRD: Fear…There must be fear.

LAST DAYS: WANING OF POWER AND FEAR

Being feared and not endeared -- explains PRRD’s Go and Bato endorsement flops. Only when one truly loves, trusts and believes PRRD will he or she says “yes” to anyone, I repeat, to anyone, that PRRD endorses for the presidency. Hardly ever would one bow to such endorsement out of fear, hence the endorsement flops. The same truism brings into play in his bullying flounder of Marcos Jr. as a “cocaine user.”

No doubt, as president, PRRD has the political power – the capacity to coerce others, overtly or covertly, to do his will. But, such power resides in his position, not in his person, and is not related to innate goodness and wisdom. When PRRD starts leaving his position, his power (and the accompanying fear) would start to wane, hence, the reason for the gradual downward trend of his rating.

Driving home the essence of this article, let me conclude with an ironic cartoon. One pollster, looking at his computer screen, says to one officemate looking over his shoulder

“This is interesting. 70% of the respondents to our survey said they don’t respond to surveys.”

THE TOUGHER SIDE OF LOVE

 

Boy 1: I’m gonna ask that girl out on a date.

Boy 2: You’d be wasting your time. You are ugly, overweight, and suffer severely from B.O. and that’s just your good points. Take it from me, she will reject you, maybe not straight away, perhaps, she will rinse your bank account first. But you have no future with that girl. I’m sorry mate, the writing is on the wall.

Boy 1: Harsh words, but priceless advice. I guess that’s what they call tough love.

Boy 2: It sure is.

Telling it like it is, tongue-in-cheek, that’s how the Urban dictionary illustrated “tough love.”

Author of the book “Tough Love,” Bill Milliken who worked in the “ghetto” with kids, described “tough love” through the expression:

“I don’t care how this makes you feel toward me. You may hate my guts, but I love you, and I’m doing this because I love you.”

He strongly emphasizes that a relationship of care and love is a prerequisite of “tough love.” “Tough love” example: genuinely concerned parents refusing to support their drug-addicted kid financially until he or she enters drug rehabilitation.

Many years ago, as members of the Couples for Christ community, we had a couple under our care who had an addicted son that became a source of family parental struggles. The father was yielding to his son’s addiction by giving him what the son wanted out of pity. On the other hand, the mother was putting out her pity and brushing aside his drug needs out of her love -- she called it “tough love.”

Amid the pandemic, “tough love” stories abound. Dr. Daniela J. Lamas, a pulmonary and critical-care physician narrated in the New York Times the story of a chronically ill child with a dismal prognosis and with parents unwilling to stop aggressive measures. To the bitter end, the child’s heart stopped. At the parents’ behest, the team moved forward with attempts at cardiopulmonary resuscitation. The efforts ended and the child didn’t make it. The parents entered the room, surveyed the detritus of the cardiac arrest, the lines, and the tubes, and surprised the medical team members by thanking them for doing everything they could. Even if it was futile from a medical perspective, the procedure let the family members know that the doctors had tried their best.

In most contexts, Dr. Lamas said it is a doctor’s responsibility, to tell the truth: particularly when nothing more could be done. However, truth is not enough. As Warren Wiersbe said, “Truth without love is brutality.” Truth must come with Love. Even a sort of love by way of resuscitation that will no longer benefit the patient, but may soothe the bereaved family, parting them with a conscientious narrative – “We did our best, baby” -- they could live with for the rest of their lives. What could be tougher than that kind of love?

“Love… rejoices with the truth… endures all things. (1 Corinthians 13:6-7)

The repair shop was as quiet as the grave when my wife and I took a peek at the whole area, enclosed by an interlink wire fence, but with an open gate. Being a Good Friday, the shop’s peace came to us as no surprise. Suddenly, catching a hissing sound in one corner, we spotted someone spray-painting a refrigerator – our fridge.

It was our first family fridge: GE brand, avocado green color, with engraved art door. We held it so dear that my wife and I, corporate breadwinners at that time, took advantage of the inactivity of the Holy Week by sending our fridge to the repair shop for new paint.

The sight of a solitary man working on a Good Friday repainting our fridge struck a sensitive nerve on both my wife and me – we felt conscience-stricken. We thought he must be at home, not only that it’s Good Friday, but also, like the rest of his co-workers, to have a good time with his own family.

Through and through that Holy Week, we make the most of the inactivity, by going to the mall to shop for a miscellany of hardware we needed, for other home improvement projects besides repainting our fridge. After shopping, we hailed a taxi cab to take home the three of us: my wife, our kid Leigh Roy, and I. After entering the cab, our kid got his one hand caught between the two metals when the door closed. First, we made out an odd, dull sound; second, we heard his long, loud, piercing cry. Right then and there, we knew a terrible thing had happened. My wife saw blood oozing out of his ugly wound.

We rushed to the nearest hospital, but we were crushed when we got there – no available doctors were around to attend to us because it was Holy Week. Just then, I remembered a doctor-friend who’s living nearby. We rushed to her house; thankfully, she was at home. She looked at the gaping wound. She told us one awful problem: she ran out of anesthesia. She gave us two options: a) she could treat the wound with no stitches; but, the infection risk would be high, the wound would take time to heal, and leave a visible unsightly scar; b) she could stitch the wound with no anesthesia; but, it would be very painful to the kid.

Tormented, my wife and I chose the second option. As our doctor-friend was stitching his wound, my wife and I were holding down both the struggling arms and feet of our kid, who was biting something in his mouth stuffed by our doctor-friend to prevent him from biting his tongue.

Turning a deaf ear to our wailing kid who was wetting his bed out of the excruciating pain he didn’t deserve – was impossible. Shrugging off his begging to stop such pain brought about by the needle piercing his skin – was too much to bear. But he needed the stitches to close the wounds.

The gut-wrenching incident calls to mind an open letter written by a parent to her kid:

“For as long as I live I will always be your parent first and your friend second. I will stalk you, flip out on you, lecture you, drive you insane, be your worst nightmare and hunt you down like a bloodhound when I have to because I love you. When you understand that, I will know you have become a responsible adult. You will never find anyone else in your life who loves, prays, cares, and worries about you more than I do. If you don’t mutter under your breath “I hate you” at least once, in your life, I am not doing my job properly.”

For my kid, Leigh Roy, we know full well, that was one moment in time, that had his mouth not stuffed with something to prevent him in biting his tongue, he surely could have blurted out the words “I hate both of you” spurred by such excruciating pain.

Delivered at home right after the Holy Week, our newly-painted fridge looked brand new in shiny apple green color. Sad to say, the fridge turned junky, in less than no time, due to needless movements that damaged its motor during the transport. We discarded it.

Just as our kid didn’t deserve the pain, so too, our fridge didn’t deserve its ruin. Both are His painful jabs for the Holy Week’s call: when you do anything else, always do it to honor Me. Tough Love? Well, when we’re good, He’s a lovey-dovey; but, when we’re bad, He’s a Tough Guy.

A VALENTINE'S TEASER: WHAT IS THE OPPOSITE OF LOVE?

 

Looking at the blank computer screen in front of me, just like any writer hitting the keys for a takeoff in composing a piece, all of a sudden, I flirted with writing about LOVE – a thematic topic, perhaps, inspired by the February ambiance hinting that Valentine’s Day is just around the corner.

Lost in thought, I Google "Love." It gave me five billion-plus entries topped by an article from The Guardian: “I am happily settled, and yet I still think of my first love. Will it forever hold me in its sway?” A personal essay, I sighed and didn’t click.

I Google “best definition of love.” Two billion-plus entries topped by Merriam-Webster: 1. a feeling of strong or constant affection for a person… 2. an attraction that includes sexual desire: the strong affection felt by people who have a romantic relationship… I yawned.

I Google “best Valentine gift.” Four billion-plus entries topped by an ad: “When love is all around, health and happiness are sure to follow. Treat yourself this Valentine’s Day with…” Hmm.

Shortly, I turned to my old books on my shelves. I spotted “The Road Less Travelled: A New Psychology of Love, Traditional Values and Spiritual Growth” by Dr. M. Scott Peck. I flipped through the shriveling pages of the book gingerly. Published in 1978, the book is so aged that the brownish newsprint pages have been unfastened from its spine and were only being kept intact by its soft covering. It defined Love as:

“The will to extend one’s self for the purpose of nurturing one’s own or another’s spiritual growth.”

A unique title of one particular chapter caught my eye: Entropy and Original Sin. Entropy means a “gradual decline.” One striking line invited my interest: “LAZINESS is love’s opposite.” (Underscoring mine) So, that is the answer to this article’s Valentine’s teaser. The lead paragraph I excerpted below:

“[Love,] [b]eing about spiritual growth, this book is inevitably about the other side of the same coin: the impediments to spiritual growth. Ultimately there is only one impediment, and that is LAZINESS. If we overcome laziness, all the other impediments will be overcome. If we do not overcome LAZINESS, none of the others will be hurdled. So this is also a book about LAZINESS. In examining discipline we were considering the LAZINESS of attempting to avoid necessary suffering or taking the easy way out. In examining love we were also examining the fact that non-love is the unwillingness to extend one’s self.” (Underscoring mine).

Right before I started composing this article, I had read Solita Collas-Monsod’s PDI column “A Catch-22 Situation for Marcos Jr” on his failure for the second time to join a presidential forum. One possible reason she cited was wearisome: [Marcos Jr.] “would have no qualms about the Filipino people any other time.”

At this point, I could not help myself recalling PDI columnist Ambeth R. Ocampo’s “Marcos Sr. on Marcos Jr.” where looking back, he revealed Marcos Sr.’s diary content -- one entry about Marcos Jr. stands out:

“Bongbong is our principal worry. He is too carefree and LAZY. So I wrote him the fatal secret of the Marcos men – ‘they are brilliant but LAZY.’… The boy must realize his weakness – the carefree wayward ways that may have been bred in him.” (Underscoring mine).

The naked truth is straight from the horse’s mouth and anyone can easily connect the dots to come up with a very clear and solid figure of a lazy man aspiring to become the leader of our country. In Valentine’s Day folklore, Marcos Jr. is like a man trying to woo the heart of a woman – the Filipino voters. If you’re a woman, would you say “yes”?

The book “The 21 Indispensable Qualities of a Leader” by John C. Maxwell listed a good deal of qualities a leader must possess, ranging from Character to Vision, from which I picked out three pertinent ones for our discussion:

1. Commitment: It separates doers from dreamers.

What is a commitment?

To the boxer: it’s getting off the mat one time more than you’ve been knocked down.

To the marathoner: it’s running another ten miles when your strength is gone.

To the soldier: it’s going over the hill, not knowing what’s waiting on the other side.

To the missionary: it’s saying goodbye to your comfort to make life better for others.

To the leader: it’s all that and more because everyone you lead is depending on you.

2. Self-Discipline: The first person you lead is you.

“Talent without discipline is like an octopus on roller skates. There’s plenty of movement, but you never know if it’s going to be forward, backward, or sideways” said Author H. Jackson Brown Jr. All the more, when one is low on talent.

3. Problem-Solving: You can’t let your problems be a problem

Author George Matthew Adams wrote, “WHAT YOU THINK (underscoring mine) means more than anything else in your life. More than what you earn, more than where you live, more than your social position, and more than what anyone else may think about you.” Every problem introduces you to yourself. It shows how you think and what you’re made of.

The above three basic qualities of a leader, among others, require a deliberate thinking process. It must disturb us to fully grasp how Marcos Jr.’s laziness could crucially impact his thinking process. Nobel Prize laureate Daniel Kahneman in his book “Thinking, Fast and Slow” wrote:

“The ease with which [students] are satisfied enough to stop thinking is rather troubling. LAZY (underscoring mine) is a harsh judgment…Those who avoid the sin of intellectual sloth could be called “engaged.” They are more alert, more intellectually active, less willing to be satisfied with superficially attractive answers, more skeptical about their intuitions. The psychologist Keith Stanovich would call them more rational.”

From the above, thinking ends when laziness begins, because as Dr. Peck stressed:

“Thinking is difficult…complex…laborious…painstaking process…until one becomes accustomed to being ‘thoughtful’.”

In college, in the 70s, one time I dropped in a typical dorm room amid a chat session in progress among roommates, as always, about a campus hottie’s vital statistics. To jack up the chatter a bit, I cut in to start the ball rolling on a more cerebral yet captivating topic on how to steal the hottie’s heart. In the next breath, someone said in a jest. “Pare, ang hirap mag-isip.” It hit the nail on the head. Such a knee-jerk reaction calls to mind its close cousins: “pwede na yan” band-aid solution, “para madali” short-cut mo, “bukas na yan” “mañana” habit – the trademarks of the infamous Juan Tamad moniker.

In 2017, this question bannered in a news headline: “Do you live in the world’s laziest country?” Smartphone data from more than 700,000 people from 46 countries included in the study were collated by scientists to show just how active different parts of the world are. Guess what? PH was the 4^th laziest country just a notch over the lazy trio of Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia. Smitten with the Yahoo News writer’s wit in spinning this dismal news item, I could not help myself in excerpting it below:

“Before you get your gears grinding, let’s face the idea that we are, in fact, lazy in general. And that is not mostly our fault. Even Jose Rizal admitted our laziness, yet he defended the Filipinos by enumerating the external circumstances that molded us to be lazy or seem like one. In his 1890 essay Sobre la Indolencia de los Filipinos, Rizal… Ok, never mind. Got lazy there.”

Let me end this article with Dr. Peck’s somber quote on thinking and a crucial question on laziness to the Filipino voters:

“One of the major dilemmas we face both as an individuals and as a society is simplistic thinking -- or the failure to think at all. It isn’t a problem; it is THE problem.”

Do we want a lazy role model as our next President?

COMELEC COMMISSIONER GUANZON: THE REFEREE WHO BLEW THE WHISTLE

Crunch time: last two minutes of the game. The shot clock sets off. All at once, referee Guanzon blows her whistle and calls a backcourt violation -- delaying the ball in bringing it from the backcourt into the frontcourt within the allotted time of eight seconds. In the same breath, Referee Ferolino, spotting the team coach on the bench signaling a "T" with his hands, calls instead for a timeout, countering referee Guanzon's call.

As a basketball player in college, a long time ago, I look at the COMELEC impasse now like a basketball game standoff as I described above. On the other hand, a legal luminary may see in his mind a different picture: a white clean bond paper with a black dot on it -- the paper is the legal sublimity; the dot, Guanzon's pugnacity. In reality, however, the paper is neither white nor clean – it is recycled – soiled and crumpled.

Exhibit A.

"The quo warranto petition [against Chief Justice Maria Lourdes Sereno] is fatally flawed... while evoking a seemingly novel approach, in truth applies a disingenuous reading that can only be deemed legitimate if the text of the Constitution is to be deliberately twisted. This is a dangerous precedent." (Integrated Bar of the Philippines)

Exhibit B.

An 80-year-old was jailed for "stealing" mangoes while that dictator Marcos Sr.'s widow Imelda Marcos has never seen the inside of a jail cell despite being convicted of graft on seven counts.

Exhibit C.

And who has been mouthing the pure and neat legalities at BBM's side of this COMELEC impasse? Larry Gadon: suspended by the Supreme Court with a pending disbarment trial due to his "atrocious and beastly behavior" he showed in his video hurling the foulest verbal attack against a female journalist.

THE ROAD TAKEN

"The facts are undisputed.

"I vote to GRANT the Petitions for Disqualification and declare Respondent FERDINAND R. MARCOS II DISQUALIFIED from running for the position of the President of the Philippines."

The alpha and omega statements above are the crux of the 24-page unflinching decision of Commissioner Guanzon on Marcos Jr.'s DQ case. Forced to contend with the mammoth Marcos Jr.'s resources in thwarting this case, Commissioner Guanzon made such a crucial decision at the end of her notable career. So tough such a decision that both sides of the local political aisle have stood in awe about her moral fiber in light of the uncharted path she would tread after her retirement.

I don't know Commissioner Guanzon as a person, more so, her character. But we may get a load of the kind of stuff she is made of inside her through the life of other women who came up against much the same predicament.

THE "BOMBSHELL" MADE HER ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL WOMEN

The "bombshell" was the revelation accusing FB of putting "astronomical profits before people". "Her" is now the famed whistle-blower Frances Haugen whose notorious release of internal FB documents – the so-called FB Papers -- has taken on a near-$1Trillion company with its legion of lawyers and advisers. She revealed:

"I did what I thought was necessary to save lives of people, especially in the global south, who I think are being endangered by FB's prioritization of profits over people. If I hadn't brought those documents forward that was never going to come to light.

"I am really lucky that my mother is an episcopal priest. I lived with her for six months last year and I had such profound distress because I was seeing these things inside of FB and I was certain it was not going to be fixed inside of Facebook."

The European Commission VP for values and transparency said, "We as regulators would not be able to convince the people that the regulation is needed were it not for whistle-blowers like Haugen." 

HER TESTIMONY CHANGED AMERICA

Adapted from Time Magazine’s cover of her, “Her” in the above banner was Dr. Christine Blasey Ford who, a few years ago, alleged that US Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh had sexually assaulted her in High School some 36 years in the past. Her testimony’s significance: the hopes and fears of women and men who have lived with the same trauma of sexual violence. The impact: a signal emitted to countless silent survivors’ willingness to come into open by the way she was treated during her testimony in the halls of power which she started with this opening line:

“I am here today not because I want to be. I am terrified. I am here because I believe it is my civic duty to tell you what happened to me…”

To the bitter end, nominee Judge Kavanaugh prevailed over her testimony and ultimately joined the US Supreme Court justices. Consequently, her family driven out of their home and bullied by death threats, Dr. Blasey raised this soul-stirring question, “Why suffer through annihilation if it’s not going to matter?” She answered her question:

“I simply thought that it was my duty as a citizen and that anyone in my position would do the same thing… [E]veryone has the power to inspire others. Be courageous, stand strong, be yourself.”

Against all odds, Dr. Blasey chose to speak up – a class of moral courage that is rare, yet so badly needed today.

SHE DIDN’T WANT TO REMAIN SILENT IN THE FACE OF THE UNTRUTH

She was one of the American famed whistle-blowers: Bunny Greenhouse. Not to remain silent in the face of the untruth was what she learned from her six-grader mother. Her heroic feat built a chapter in the book “Your America: Democracy’s Local Heroes," as excerpted below:

“Let’s say you work for a gigantic institution… Bit by bit you advance in your career. You make a comfortable salary, and you’re building a retirement nest egg. Then comes the day that you discover something terribly wrong is going on. Do you make a big stink and endanger your job? Or do you just look the other way, knowing that the organization will resist any change and that if you speak out, you’ll likely end up as road-kill?”

The dilemma above spurred Greenhouse to become a whistle-blower and transformed from within a US government bureaucracy with over 35,000 employees. The book narrated:

“Greenhouse is a deeply religious person, active in the church since Sunday school. And almost forty years ago, she says she received a personal calling. She can’t explain it in logical terms. She came to know, she says, that God had a purpose for her. She was to be ‘fisher of men’… Then, at a terrible time in her life… Greenhouse realized her time to become a ‘fisher of men’ had arrived.”

That appointed time arrived when she became one of the US famous whistle-blowers.

It is noteworthy that I haven’t taken in any local role model in my discussion. Though local brave heroes abound, I am also sensible to the drift of what Jesus said: “A prophet is always treated with honor except in his hometown and in his own home.”

POINTS TO PONDER

Will Commissioner Guanzon’s pugnacity, like FB whistle-blower Frances Haugen’s notoriety, convince people that “change” is needed?

Does Commissioner Guanzon’s whistle-blowing, like star witness Dr. Christine Blasey’s testimony, not going to matter?

Will Commissioner Guanzon’s dissent, like whistle-blower Bunny Greenhouse’s calling, transform COMELEC from within?

            Today, I have no answers to the above vital questions. The impasse requires an “instant replay” (“Anyare?”) just like in basketball in cases of missed calls by referees that could change the outcome of the game. What I have in mind now is the reassuring gist of Manila Standard Elizabeth Angsioco’s column: “The ending of this issue should see the good triumph over evil.”

MARCOS JR. OPERATIVES HAVE SCRAMBLED TO COVER UP HIS INTERVIEW "COWARDICE" FALLOUT

Scared of VP Leni’s surge fired up by Marcos Jr.’s fallout from his “cowardice” for not facing Jessica Soho’s tough, no-holds-barred, and no-nonsense interview, Marcos Jr.’s campaign operatives have scrambled in scavenging smear campaign tactics in their totalitarian toolboxes. “Resentment” – a totalitarian ideologies’ single source of recruitment and unification has been a spent tool (“kumita na”) during PRRD’s election campaign that targeted Dilawans. If used again, it will backfire -- the resentful will unite and turn instead to Pharmally & Malampaya shenanigans, and the Marcoses’ plunder.

TOTALITARIAN TOOLBOX

So Marcos Jr.’s operatives have used this time the “demonization” tool:  disparaging VP Leni with denigrating names. Just as Lenin referred to his opponents as “bloodsuckers” and PRRD, to addicts, as “zombies,” so too Marcos Jr.’s operatives calling VP Leni as “laughing stock,” “lenidoro,” “loony,” “bo2,” among others.

Such totalitarian tool has been sharpened by Joseph Goebbels’ mind-conditioning grinder: “It would not be impossible to prove with sufficient REPETITION (underscoring mine) and a psychological understanding of the people concerned that a square is, in fact, a circle.”

But, there’s the rub: Marcos Jr.’s operatives are unwittingly contradicting themselves. They have been saying that VP Leni is a US-backed candidate and, in the next breath, calling her a laughingstock too.  Interestingly, Marcos Sr. was a friendly ally and guarantor of US interests for eighteen years. Yet, I have still to read an article about Marcos Sr. as a laughingstock. The US is just like a business organization, on a smaller scale, that undertakes “due diligence” before “investing” in an “asset.” “Due diligence” is an investigation, audit, or review performed to confirm facts or details. All US allies like, Marcos Sr. and VP Leni, were subjected to such “due diligence.” With its global dominance, the US will not back-up a leader of any country that is a laughingstock. The US backing up of VP Leni as its worthy ally in the Indo-Pacific volatile region demolishes Marcos Jr.’s operatives’ “laughing stock” smear.

 US President Biden asserted the global challenge of the times facing the US and the Philippine alliance in his speech during the Philippine Independence Day:

“Let’s also look to the future, the challenges that our two countries must continue to work to take on together, from defeating this pandemic, to strengthening the global preparedness for the next one, to advancing the free and open Indo-Pacific region for all peoples. I hope the friendship between the Philippines and the United States will continue to be a source of strength for both our nations through all the decades ahead.”

If any anti-American Marcos Jr.’s operative says that the US is stupid for backing up a laughing stock, then, he is entitled to his lonesome opinion.

Marcos Jr.’s operatives are so scared of VP Leni that it beclouded their minds as Northwestern Medicine on Emotional Health explained:

“Fear can make you foggy. As some parts of your brain are revving up, others are shutting down. When the amygdala senses fear, the cerebral cortex (area of the brain that harnesses reasoning and judgment) becomes impaired – so now it’s difficult to make good decisions or think clearly.”

OPINIONS OF 3,600 PEOPLE (AKA SURVEY) HAS TURNED INTO PSEUDOSCIENCE

Campaign Manager (CM): I really need our survey to find out XYZ.

Operative (O): I understand why finding out XYZ would be very important, but surveys just cannot tell us that.

CM: But I really need to know. Just ask a question.

O: I appreciate your need to know, but unfortunately your need to know is unrelated to voters’ ability to tell us. We’ll get a number, but it won’t mean anything.

CM: Just ask the question. Get their answers. Then, give me the number. Period.

So, the operative asks the question and gets the answers. He put the answers in a container labeled “process” and sprinkles the concoction with “statistics” (like "Maggi Magic Sarap"). The brew looks seductive. Just then, the Campaign Manager comes in the kitchen and says, “Hmm. It smells like Science.” He asks, “What’s the number?”

The above US election campaign parody is a variant adapted from the article in The Hill by political consultant and pollster Mark Mellman’s – a run-of-the-mill scenario that could find its way as well around PH political environment. And here and now, “What’s the number?” It’s over 50% -- Marcos Jr.’s survey rating. Simply, it means that barely over 1,600 people said they would vote for Marcos Jr. on the day of the survey.

Then, from the opinions of such 1,600 people, Marcos Jr.’s operatives extrapolated and guesstimated the following:

1. It will be a boring May 2022 election

2. It will be a landslide

3. VP Leni to land 3^rd

Spooked by VP Leni’s candidacy, the Marcos Jr.’ operatives’ heebie-jeebies has stemmed in early December when a new election survey player (ironically a medical research group) suddenly surfaced on the political landscape (with lawmaker-quizzed funding) dropping VP Leni to 14% at close quarters over Isko at 12% and Pacquiao10%. Then lately, the Marcos Jr.’s operatives said “unnamed social media polls” put Isko as the 2^nd placer and, in the next breath, pointed out that Isko admitted recently he has kept the left-over campaign funds of P50 million – a glaring admission circulating viral in the internet putting questions to his morals. The guesstimate above on Isko was so illogical that it only implied two things: a) it insulted the intelligence of the survey respondents, b) the so-called “unnamed social media polls” do not exist.  Of course, as an election campaign operative, one can mouth the above guesstimates though it sounds ridiculous.

DIVIDE THE OPPOSITION

To each opposition candidate, the thought-control message of the above guesstimates: Do not unify; it’s a whole new ball game – each one has a good chance to become the next President – a cunning scheme to divide the opposition.

The crucial exchange between Cardinal Sin and Marcos Sr. before the EDSA Revolution (narrated in my ATABAY article “The Catholic Church and Politics”) has let the cat out of the bag.

Cardinal Sin: It is very dangerous for you to call a snap election. You may lose. You will be forced to step down.

Marcos Sr.: I cannot lose an election to an opposition that is a hopelessly DIVIDED. They will tear each other to pieces.

The Marcos Jr.’s operatives’ thought-control ultimate scheme: Divide the opposition.

QUID PRO QUO

At this point, let me shift to world events particularly in the Ukraine crisis. Not about the present US-Russia standoff, let’s look back instead to the Trump impeachment a few years ago that involved Ukraine. In a nutshell, during the impeachment hearing, one witness testified that nearly $400 million in security assistance for Ukraine was frozen and would only be unfrozen if Ukraine investigates Trump’s political opponents. That is, Trump wanted “something for something” – a common concept in foreign relations – in Latin: quid pro quo.

Here and now in PH, the dilemma that faces opposition candidates that rejected the 1Sambayan unification initiative: the public perception – that you cut a “quid pro quo” deal with Marcos Jr.

You’re damned if you do and damned if you don’t because people won’t believe you don’t.

THE PROBLEM WITH MARCOS JR. REBRANDING

 

Movie scene inside a typical TV network station.

Interviewer (I): We’ll start in, what, 30 seconds? We good for 30? Thanks. Um…So, uh…

Studio Engineer (SE): Move your lav up just a little bit for me, if you please?

I: Move it up? Where is it? Oh, I got it. Is that better?

SE: Thank you.

I: Is… Is the sound for both of us good?

SE: It’s good. Thank you.

I: Okay. Right, well, um, when you’re ready, shall we start?

(Soft rock playing)

I: Jane, good morning.

Jane (J): Good morning.

I: Since your early days as a political strategist, you’ve been known by a certain name, Calamity Jane.

J: Yeah, I’ve been called a lot of names.

I: Did you ever work for a politician you did not believe in?

J: Oh, sure. I could convince myself of anything if the price was right.

Hired to manage the election campaign of a Bolivian presidential candidate, the TV show guest was Jane Bodine (played by Sandra Bullock in the movie Our Brand Is Crisis) -- an election campaign veteran operative of a political consulting firm that resorted to a strategy of smear campaigning (remember “lugaw”?) to make up for their candidate’s shortcomings (remember “duwag”?) – the dark side of the film inspired by true events in 2002.

Today, here and now in PH, we don’t just have another inspired movie but a sober reality that stares us in the face. It reminds me of Oscar Wilde’s essay “The Decay of Lying” where he opined that, “Life imitates Art far more than Art imitates Life.”

Whistleblower Brittany Kaiser of now-defunct Cambridge Analytica exposed:

“When I joined Cambridge Analytica in 2014 we had already worked in the Philippines. There was a national campaign where my former company had gone in and undertaken national research to figure out what was the type of persona that would resonate best with voters…

“We had a request straight from BONGBONG MARCOS to do a FAMILY REBRANDING [Underscoring mine]. This was brought in through internal staff at Cambridge Analytica and was debated. Some people didn’t want to touch it and there were others like our CEO Alexander Nix that saw it as a MASSIVE FINANCIAL OPPORTUNITY and asked us to write the proposal anyway. So, as you call it: HISTORICAL REVISIONISM [Underscoring mine].”

Brand and Branding are buzzwords in the business world – the former differentiates one product/service/organization from another; the latter lets the world know the brand exists, its sense of purpose, and its unique set of features. In the political world, each political candidate carries a brand ID – a powerful tool jutting out to attract votes.

In the US, during the 2020 Democratic Primary Race, Crowdspring, an online marketplace for crowdsourced creative services community of 220,000 designers picked out the top three best political brandings: Pete Buttigieg with his “A Fresh Start For America;” Bernie Sanders, “Not me. Us;” and Kamala Harris, “Tough. Principled. Fearless.”

“We know that a brand encompasses so much more than design. It’s also the words you say, the actions you take, and the impact you make on the people and world around us,” wrote Katie Lundin in her Crowdspring article.

But, why do a brand and a branding fail?

Trusted around the world, Volkswagen was the brand best known for its reliability, performance, and environmental compliance – until 2005. Equipping 11 million of its vehicle with software to dupe the required emission test triggered a shattering mess up. Consequently, not only had Volkswagen faced a 30-billion pounds lawsuit, but it also has dragged itself on an uphill climb to regain the trust of its customers it lost worldwide.

Another example of a wrecking failure was the British Petroleum (BP) pricey rebranding with a rumored price tag of $211 million plus an upgrade outlay of $125 million yearly. Deemed as a hoax, its rebranding claim deceptively type-casted the real nature of the company. Pulling the wool over the public eyes, BP projected itself as ecofriendly – a shoddy attempt that flew in the face of the oil drilling reality. A harsh indelible lambast evolved from that rebranding failure: You can’t put perfume on a pig.

The pivotal word – Deception. UP Professor Randy David’s pertinent insight in his PDI column on Marcos Jr.’s rebranding has been thought-provoking:

“There is no other way, I believe, except by questioning his suitability for the role into which he is being cast. Unlike the messianic figures in history, this man has never known any real adversity. His own father despaired over his laziness and lack of discipline. As far as the public record goes, he grew up surrounded by nannies, servants, bodyguards, and private tutors.

“Prior to joining the government, he never had to earn his keep. When he finally did, he neglected to pay taxes, as though this was beneath him. He has never been associated with any social cause, or with anything that transcends personal or family interests. He seems to have no affinity with heroism – whether real or invented.”

Built seemingly on the sand of falsehood and deception, is Marcos Jr’s rebranding, just like the Leaning Tower of Pisa, sinking?

Today it appears it may not yet be. But, Marcos Jr.’s abrupt shrinking from the “Tiger of the North” to the ”Hello Kitty” brand, exposed by his viral interview “cowardice,” may have started already to uncover the cracks on the façade of his rebranding walls.