SPIN ANALYSIS: IS HEAVY TRAFFIC A SIGN OF BOOMING ECONOMY?

 

Scene: A dark and rainy night. A car is driving on a deserted road. The driver is a young woman named Anna, who looks nervous and scared. She is talking on the phone with someone.

Anna: (voice-over) I don’t know what to do. I think someone is following me.

Phone: (voice-over) Calm down, Anna. Where are you?

Anna: (voice-over) I’m on the highway, heading to the cabin.

Phone: (voice-over) Okay, good. Just keep driving. You’ll be safe there.

Anna: (voice-over) But what if he finds me? What if he knows the truth?

Phone: (voice-over) He doesn’t know anything, Anna. Trust me. You’re the only one who knows the secret.

Anna: (voice-over) But how can you be sure? How can I be sure?

Phone: (voice-over) Because I’m the one who told you.

Cut to black

Have you ever watched and felt excited, curious, or suspenseful about the film? Have you ever wondered how the filmmakers created such an impression on you?

One of the techniques they use is called timing and framing of information, which involves controlling when and how information is presented to the audience, to create a certain effect. This technique is known as spin.

The above movie trailer -- an example from popular culture -- illustrated the concept of spin that uses the technique of timing and framing of information. Sit back, keep on reading, and seeing in your mind the rest of the film trailer.

Title: THE SECRET

Narrator: (voice-over) The story of a woman who discovers a shocking secret that changes her life forever. A secret that someone else wants to know. A secret that someone else wants to kill for.

Cut to scenes of Anna being chased by a mysterious man in a black coat and hat, who has a knife in his hand. He breaks into her car, her apartment, and her cabin. He confronts her in various locations, such as a parking lot, a subway station, and a forest. He tries to stab her, but she fights back and escapes.

Narrator: (voice-over) Who is he? What does he want? How far will he go to get it? And what is the secret that Anna knows?

Cut to scenes of Anna talking to different people, such as her friend, her boss, her therapist, and her lover. They all seem to have something to hide or something to reveal. They all seem to be involved in the secret somehow.

Narrator: (voice-over) Who can she trust? Who can she believe? How far will he go to get it? And what is the secret that Anna knows?

Cut to scenes of Anna finding clues and evidence that lead her to the truth. She sees the photos, documents, videos, and messages that reveal the secret bit by bit. She also sees flashbacks of her past that explain how she learned the secret in the first place.

Narrator: (voice-over) What is the secret? How did she find out? How does it affect her? And how does it affect everyone else?

Cut to black

Title: THE SECRET

Narrator: (voice-over) The secret will shock you. The secret will thrill you. The secret will change you.

Cut to a final of Anna facing the mysterious man in a dark room. He has cornered her and raised his knife. She looks at him with fear and anger.

Anna: (shouting) Why are you doing this? Why are you after me?

Man: (whispering) Because you know the secret.

Anna: (whispering) What secret?

Man: (whispering) The secret that …

Cut to black

Narrator: (voice-over) The Secret. Coming soon to the theaters near you.

(Corny spoiler alert: Anna is a whistleblower who knows “the secret” of the rigged May 2022 election as alleged by the TNT Trio.)

Moving ahead, influencing public opinion or perception of a certain issue, event, organization, or person in politics, a spin is often considered a negative or deceptive practice, as it involves presenting a biased or distorted version of reality to achieve a desired outcome. It can be seen as a form of propaganda or manipulation.

THE TRAFFIC PROBLEM

Traffic congestion is a serious problem that affects millions of people in the Philippines every day. According to a report by Oliver Wyman Forum and the University of California, Berkeley, the Philippines has the fifth worst public transportation system in the world. Moreover, the Japan International Cooperation Agency estimated that traffic congestion costs the Philippine economy P3.5 billion in lost opportunities every day. Despite these alarming facts, some politicians and business leaders have tried to spin the issue of traffic congestion as a sign of economic progress and development.

One of the ways that spin distorts the reality of traffic congestion in the Philippines is by presenting it as a positive indicator of economic growth and prosperity. For instance, Joey Concepcion III, a member of President Bongbong Marcos’s Private Sector Advisory Council, claimed that “there’s traffic all over the world in areas that the economy is really doing well”. This spin is false or misleading for several reasons.

First, traffic congestion is NOT a sign of economic progress as shown in Table 1. Based on the GDP per capita metric, the Philippines is far behind among the ASEAN countries in the global ranking. What’s more, for the Quality of Life metric, the Philippines is hanging limply at the back of its ASEAN neighbors. Having the worst traffic situation in the ASEAN region and 10^th worst in the world, put a stop to Concepcion’s spin.

Table1. GDP per capita, Quality of Life, & Traffic

	Singapore	Malaysia	Thailand	Indo	Vietnam	PH
GDP per capita, PPP*	108,036	28,315	17,507	12,410	11,396	8,582
Global Rank	3	55	74	97	102	115
Quality of Life**	153	123	81	74	101	45
Global Rank	103	170	227	231	208	242
Traffic Index**	149	193	213	250	106	253
Global Ranking	100	42	25	12	165	10

* Purchasing Power Parity, The World Bank, 2022

** Numbeo, 2023

Table notes:

The following cities where Quality of Life & Traffic Index were measured: Singapore, Singapore; Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia; Bangkok, Thailand; Jakarta, Indonesia; Hanoi, Vietnam; and Manila, Philippines.

Second, traffic congestion has negative impacts on the environment, public health, productivity, and quality of life of millions of commuters and residents as shown in Table 2:

Table 2. Quality of life in the Philippines (Numbeo, 2023)

Purchasing Power	Very Low
Safety	Moderate
Health Care	High
Climate Index	High
Cost of Living	Very Low
Property Price to Income Ratio	Very High
Traffic Commute Time	High
Pollution	High
QUALITY of LIFE INDEX	Very Low

 

Third, traffic congestion drives away foreign investors who are looking for ease of doing business in their potential markets as shown in Table 3 showcased by the Philippines falling behind the ASEAN pack with its corresponding lowermost Foreign Direct Investment.

Table 3. Top ASEAN Countries Ranking in Ease of Doing Business with their corresponding Foreign Direct Invest (FDI) Inflows (World Bank, 2022)

	Sing	Malay	Thai	Viet	Indo	PH
World Rank	2	12	21	70	73	95
FDI, in US$M	140,844	15,114	10,046	15,660	21,652	9,200

 

To sum up, as the above tables show, the Philippines has the lowest GDP per capita, quality of life index, and foreign direct investment among the ASEAN countries. This contradicts the spin that traffic congestion is a sign of economic progress and development. Traffic congestion is one of the factors that contributes to the poor performance of the Philippines in these indicators, as it reduces the efficiency, competitiveness, and attractiveness of the country as a market and destination.

When I got to this point writing this piece, I felt so weary that I asked Bing my AI-powered co-pilot to give me 3 short jokes to wrap up this article. Well, they jazzed up my day. I hope they'll make yours too.

Why did the chicken cross the road? Because it was faster than taking the car.

How do you know when the traffic is really bad? When the GPS says, “In 400 feet, turn left, and walk.”

How do you avoid traffic in the Philippines? You don’t. You just learn to love it.

That reminds me of the tourism slogan “Love the Philippines”. Amid its controversy, the Department of Tourism issued recently this press release: “Love the Philippines” stays until further notice.

Content put together in collaboration with Microsoft Bing AI-powered co-pilot

Head photo courtesy of Car Guide PH

Video clips courtesy of YouTube

HOW NOT TO SELL A PRODUCT NO ONE WANTS TO BUY: THE CASE OF PH

 

The Product              : Philippines

The Customers         : Foreign Investors

The Salesman          : President Bongbong Marcos (PBBM)

The Issue                  : “Marcos travel expenses: P403M” (Manila Times headline)

According to the Commission on Audit, the Office of the President’s travel expenses for foreign trips increased by around 1,453 % in 2022. “Significant increase of P367 million is due to the official travels relative to the foreign summits and state visit attended by the president during the year in Singapore, Indonesia, United States of America, Cambodia, Thailand, and Belgium,” state auditors said.

PBBM has justified the foreign travels by telling critics to focus on the supposed return on investment. He said:

“Kapag hindi tayo bumiyahe at nagpakita sa mga conference na yan, hindi nila tayo iniisip. Wala sa isipan nila ang Pilipinas. Kailangan natin ipakita kung ano ang atin para mapaganda ang potential investments nila sa dadalhin nila dito sa Pilipinas."

Is he justified?

The key to the answer we will find in the title itself of this Entrepreneur article by Sujan Patel: Are you Selling Something Nobody Wants to Buy? In the case of PBBM, the salesman, selling the Philippines, the product, we may rephrase the question: Is PBBM selling the Philippines no investor wants to invest in?  The author breaks down further the question into this one: “Do people want what you’re selling?”

In PBBM case: Do the investors want to invest in the Philippines?

COLD HARD FACTS

We will come up with the answer in the following cold hard facts.

1.    Ease of Doing Business. The Philippines is furthest behind the top ASEAN countries in ranking in the World Bank metric of Ease of Doing Business. As shown in Table 1 below, the ranking is based on the 10 vital factors ranging from the investors’ starting their business, getting credit, up to resolving their insolvency in a crisis.

2.    Corruption. The Philippines is the most corrupt country among the top ASEAN countries based on the 2022 Corruption International index by Transparency International as shown in Table 2.

3.  Foreign Investment. The Philippines is at the back of the queue insofar as the inflow of Foreign Direct Investment is concerned. The numbers in Table 3 are not starry-eyed “aspirations,” er, pledges that the PBBM administration cited in justifying the President’s foreign trips for having earned the country $23.6 billion.

 Table 1. Top ASEAN Countries Ranking in Ease of Doing Business

	Singapore	Malaysia	Thailand	Vietnam	Indonesia	Philippines
World Ranking	2	12	21	70	73	95
Starting business	4	126	47	115	140	171
Dealing w/ Const’n permits	5	2	34	25	110	85
Getting Electricity	19	4	6	27	33	32
Registering property	21	33	67	64	106	120
Getting credit	37	37	48	25	48	132
Protecting minority Investors	3	2	3	97	37	72
Paying taxes	7	80	68	109	81	95
Trading across borders	47	49	62	104	116	113
Enforcing contracts	1	35	37	68	139	152
Resolving Insolvency	27	40	24	122	38	65

The World Bank ranked economies on their ease of doing business among 190 countries benchmarked to May 2019. A high ease of doing business ranking means the regulatory environment is more conducive to the starting and operation of a local firm.

 Table 2. Corruption Perception Index (Transparency International, 2022)

	Singapore	Malaysia	Vietnam	Thailand	Indonesia	Philippines
World Ranking	5	61	77	101	110	116

Note: Lower Rank Less Corrupt

Table 3. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), 2022, in US$ millions (ASEAN Stats Data Portal)

	Singapore	Indonesia	Vietnam	Malaysia	Thailand	Philippines
FDI	141,187.20	21,968.20	17,899.90	17,095.80	9,939.60	9,199.90

 

NOBODY WANTS TO BUY

Let’s go back to the questions:

Do the investors want to invest in the Philippines? Our discussion backed up by the tables has shown that no investor in his right mind will invest in the Philippines with such relatively rock-bottom figures against the top ASEAN countries.

Is PBBM selling the Philippines no investor wants to invest in? Yes, as shown in the tables.

Is he justified? That is, “kailangan natin ipakita kung ano ang atin para mapaganda ang potential investments nila sa dadalhin nila dito sa Pilipinas.” I don’t think so. Going back to the article’s title, this cold hard truth of the question, PBBM must be asked: “Are you Selling Something Nobody Wants to Buy?” We have answered that question. Yes. And therefore, his colossal travel expenses are unjustified.

Let’s look into some justifications by his minions:

Here’s one. The increase in the expenses on foreign trips of PBBM was due to a “huge volume of invitations for international events, conferences, high-level meetings, and state visits, among others, and the OP has acceded to some of these requests, knowing that the country and the public, in general, will benefit immensely from the President’s participation in these engagements.”

Not having said a word about investment, this line reminds me of my corporate heyday, particularly during those annual performance report presentations to the top management. In a typical piece of a presentation paper, one would see a column with the heading -- “variances” – the figures represent the expenses incurred over (mostly, rather than under) the budget. Staff, like me, would craft justifications for each “variance.” This question puts the finishing touches on the report: “What’s the justification in the previous report?” to double-check that it would not appear a carbon copy -- a "copy paste" today.

SHADOW

Here’s another one in a headline. “Marcos foreign trips ‘out of his control,’ says chief legal counsel.” (Manila Times)

It reminds me of psychiatrist Carl Jung’s “Shadow” – the part of our mind containing those things that we would rather not own up to, that we are continually trying to hide from ourselves and others. We sweep such a "shadow" under the rug of our consciousness, even to the extent of our being pushed up against the wall by evidence of our unethical behavior.

One movie title, The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, fleshes out much darker the “Shadow” which describes someone who has done something bad or evil. When he says, “The devil made me do it,” it implies that the person had acted OUT OF HIS CONTROL and that he or she was forced to do something against his or her will. Believed to have originated in the medieval era, the phrase is usually used as an excuse for someone’s bad behavior.

Instead of wrangling with the centenarian’s legal mind, let me wrap up this article with this flash from the past.

During my corporate heyday, now and then, a top corporate biggie would suddenly pop up and drop in on his company’s underlings’ workplace. At times, he would catch one of us off-balance with this gotcha “Where did this figure come from?” question, while looking intently at the blueprint sprawled on the drawing board.

As engineers, we would always wish for him to vanish instantly from our sight. So, for our biggie who is usually, not an engineer, we always had an on-the-spot ready-stopper answer: “It's the standard specification, Sir.”

Head collage photos courtesy of ABS-CBN News, Philippine Star, & Land Bank of the Philippines

Video clips courtesy of YouTube