1-ON-1 DEBATE CHALLENGE: VP LENI PLAYS QUEEN'S GAMBIT AND WINS

 

“Chess can also be beautiful.” (Beth Harmon, “The Queen’s Gambit” television drama)

In chess, two responses are on hand to counter Queen’s Gambit opening: to accept or to decline. VP Leni’s challenge for a 1-on-1 debate was declined by Marcos Jr. Unlike in chess, however, where a “decline” is a defensive move, Marcos Jr.’s decline was tantamount to his refusal to take the rare opportunity to explain to the Filipino voters, as the COMELEC has enjoined each presidential candidate, “what he stands for and why he deserves to be elected president for the next six years.”

Like in boxing, his “handlers” may cover up Marcos Jr.’s wimpy style he has shown during the whole campaign as a “rope-a-dope” maneuver – a boxing strategy of drawing punches while leaning against the rope. Unfortunately, the punches hitting Marcos Jr. are the punching combination of truths that hurt. Marcos Jr. is no Mohammad Ali – who employed the “rope-a-dope” maneuver in his world heavyweight championship fight. Marcos Jr. is lazy and weak as his father, Marcos Sr., asserted. As a leader, Marcos Jr. is an empty vessel. In leadership, you cannot give what you don’t have.

Like in a card game, since it is the election homestretch, the 1-on-1 debate challenge is a rare opportunity to highlight transparency: Putting all cards on the table. That is, it is being open and honest to the Filipino voters by revealing one’s positions and intentions on all raised issues in a forum without holding information back from the public and devoid of fear and deception. But Marcos Jr. seems to be keeping close to his chest his “trump cards” – historical revisionism, dubious surveys, and trolls – which he expects to propel him in achieving his presidential ambition.

1. HISTORICAL REVISIONISM

The overriding evidence of this “trump card” of deception which I always reiterate in every opportunity such as this article is this “embryo” of this Disinformation which was first spawned in 2014 as exposed by whistleblower Brittany Kaiser of the infamous Cambridge Analytica:

“When I joined Cambridge Analytica in 2014 we had already worked in the Philippines. There was a national campaign where my former company had gone in and undertaken national research to figure out what was the type of persona that would resonate best with voters…

“We had a request straight from Bongbong Marcos to do a FAMILY REBRANDING. This was brought in through internal staff at Cambridge Analytica and was debated. Some people didn’t want to touch it and there were others like our CEO Alexander Nix that saw it as a massive financial opportunity and asked us to write the proposal anyway. So, as you call it: HISTORICAL REVISIONISM.” (Underscoring mine)

2. SURVEY: GARBAGE IN GARBAGE OUT

“In computer science, garbage in, garbage out (GIGO) is the concept that flawed, or nonsense (garbage) input data produces nonsense output. Rubbish in, rubbish out (RIRO) is an alternate wording.” (Wikipedia)

 “On two occasions I have been asked, ‘Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you put into the machine wrong figures, will the right answers come out?’ … I am not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question.” (Charles Babbage, Passages from the Life of a Philosopher)

Did it ever occur to anyone that nobody seems to ask who put into those “survey machines” the figures that could be wrong? Did it ever occur to anyone that the political analysis of the pundits mostly has been based on surveys that could be wrong?

Example: Why does Marcos Jr. lead in the surveys? And the pundit’s comprehensive answer overindulged the whole opinion page with gobbledygook – transforming Marcos Jr. into some kind of a Mr. Mystery Man and implying that more than half of Filipinos are suckers for such gibberish -- without even taking into account that the survey could be wrong.

“When you want to test for an illness or a disease, the doctor basically takes only a small sample [of a tissue] from you and that should help him detect what exactly is afflicting you.” (Ronald Homes, Pulse Asia President, justifying the relatively small sampling size.)

When one cannot even distinguish the basic difference between a homogenous human body and a heterogeneous national population, then something is so wrong with the crux of the whole process that we could just set aside the other survey flaws: non-stratification, biases, class exclusion, and the dubious outsourcing of data as Isko Moreno revealed during the infamous Easter press con.

“[W]e can prove to you na polluted yong survey, because we have an evidence already on hand… Pulse Asia and SWS may not know it, because they are the one analyzing it. But the raw data that they are getting… nahuli na namin yong gumagawa ng survey sa kalsada.” (Isko Moreno, presidential candidate)

Let me share again some passages from my past article “Election Survey Results: News or Propaganda?”

“The dirty little secret of … survey is – they are largely junk science placing marketing objectives of telling and selling a good story, above the practical and ethical objective of telling the truth… Often statistical methods are misused corrupting survey results while providing an air of scientific legitimacy…” (Excerpted from the article “Survey and Dirty Little Secret, Hidden Distortion, Bias – Illusion of Scientific Validity: Business Beware)

In fact, in the light of the recent polling and survey “black eye” worldwide, including the US 2016 & 2020 elections, uncompromising critics have propounded: a) polling or survey is irrevocably broken, and b) pollsters and polling purveyors should be ignored.

In the US, Real Clear Politics frequently cited by various media organizations, gets its average figure from the top 10 surveys among a horde of pollsters all over the US. For example, in presidential job approval, Real Clear Politics averages all the quality information of Rasmussen, Economist, Reuters, Politico, Gallup, GU Politics, IBD/TIPP, PPP, NPR/PBS/Marist, and NBC/Wall Street Journal, and The Hill. Here in PH, we put our whole eggs in a political basket of a handful of pollsters.

What can be more compelling an evidence of the survey flaws than this in-your-face fact: on the same Saturday night of the same date of April 23 in the same region of NCR, VP Leni’s mammoth 400,000+ Pasay crowd dwarfed 28-fold the 14,000 Sampaloc crowd of the so-called survey frontrunner Marcos Jr.

3. TROLLS AMONG US

Lady 1: May nag-hire sa akin. Sama tayo. Seguro mas malaki-laki yong rate mo kasi mas marami kang followers kaysa akin.

Lady 2: Ano pala yang trabaho na yan?

Lady 1: Madali lang. Pero mas marami pang benefits. Tingnan mo. Every weekend nagbabakasyon ako out-of-town. Tingnan mo ang gadgets ko, latest. Ang suot ko ngayon, branded.

Lady 2: Trolling?

            “[T]he estimated salary of a troll network moderator who churns out daily ‘script’ or talking points to defend the client ranges from P40,000 to P50,000 monthly; on the other hand, ‘micro-influencers’ (those with ‘only’ 10,000 followers) can earn P300,000 to P350,000, including bonuses, for a monthly retainer during the election season (one job offer shared by a source was pegged at P25,000 to P30,000 to manage a Facebook page, with a higher fee for anyone fluent in Ilocano).” (Manuel L. Quezon III, Inquirer columnist)

“Politicians are said to pay from P1.9 to P2.8 million per month for a retainer of up to eight months for a troll farm campaign on their behalf. Where are these companies? Many of them are based in ‘call centers hubs,’ according to the international watchdog Reporters Without Borders, which named the Philippines one of press freedom’s 20 worst digital predators in 2020.” (Inquirer Editorial)

With his “trump cards,” Marcos Jr. thinks he doesn’t need to explain to the Filipino voters what he stands for and why he deserves to be elected president for the next six years. So sad.

A QUIET BIRTHDAY GIFT TO VP LENI

 

“Just show up and things will happen.” (Mother Teresa)

VP Leni’s Pasay Rally:

Organizer’s estimate   - 400,000+

NCRPO’s estimate      -   70,000 to 80,000

Marcos Jr.’s Sampaloc Rally:

MPD’s estimate            -   14,000

JACOB’S METHOD

Not only will crowd estimate spark controversy, but also it is difficult to compute. Estimating the crowd is critical, especially in the election campaign rallies where the number of people who shows up in the rally carries a crucial political significance. In the U.S. for example, the Washington, D.C. Park Police, according to Wikipedia, was threatened with a lawsuit for announcing that only 400,000 people attended The 1995 Million Man March.

Let’s evaluate VP Leni’s Pasay Rally which is easy because of the rectangular flat area of the Macapagal Boulevard rally site in Pasay City. We will use the most common method known as Jacob’s Method which factors in crowd density values as specified by Dr. Sabrina Stierwalt, Professor of Physics at Occidental College:

“The most tightly packed crowd, known officially as ‘mosh pit density,’ has one person per 2.5 square feet [or 4.3 persons per square meter.] This is the sort of crowd where, if you were able to pick your feet off the ground, you’d be so squished by those around you that you’d probably stay upright just fine. This density of people is considered a strict upper limit – any crowd counts that allot less space per person are not considered physically possible. A more breathable crowd puts one person per 4.5 square feet [or 2.39 persons per square meter] which still places you elbow to elbow with your neighbors. A light crowd might have one person per 10 square feet [or 1.08 person per square meter].”

CROWD ESTIMATE ASSESSMENT

Organizer’s Estimate:

Given:

Length: 2.5 kilometers or 2,500 meters occupied

Width: 8 lanes x 3.7 meters/lane = 29.6 meters

Total Area: 2,500 x 29.6 = 74,000 square meters or 7.4 hectares

Assumptions:

1. Applied 3.9 persons per square meter lower than the “mosh pit density” value for breathing space allowance

2. Assumed 40% crowd overflow on both sides of the boulevard

Calculations:

On boulevard:

Estimated number of people: 74,000 x 3.9 = 288,600

40% crowd overflow:

Estimated number of people: 74,000 x 3.9 x 0.40 = 115,440

Total Estimated Number of People = 404,040

NCRPO Estimate:

Crowd density value = 70,000 /74,000 = 0.95 person per square meter

This value indicates less than a light crowd.

The final figure of 404,040 will change (higher or lower) depending on the answers to the following questions:

1. Are the boulevard specifications (8 lanes @ 3.7/lane wide) correct?

2. Are the two assumptions valid vis-à-vis the actual situation?

3. Does the final figure matches the drone view of the actual event?

Not to fact check both the rally organizer and NCRPO’s estimates, this article will bring to light the glaring reality that has not caught the eye of the media. While VP Leni’s rally was going on in Pasay, a similar event was taking place in Sampaloc – Marcos Jr.’s rally. This affords us a rare opportunity to compare the two rallies since both occurred on the same night of the same day in the National Capital Region. Placing VP Leni’s rally crowd side by side with that of Marcos Jr.’s crowd of 14,000, one of the following banners could have been the “Breaking News” the next day -- the essence of which is a quiet birthday gift to VP Leni:

QUIET BIRTHDAY GIFT

“VP Leni’s Rally Beats 5-Fold Marcos Jr’s Crowd” (based on NCRPO’s VP Leni’s 70,000 estimate)

 “VP Leni’s Rally Dwarfs 28-Fold Marcos Jr’s Crowd” (based on VP Leni’s organizer’s 400,000+ estimate)

While most, if not all, saw the resounding multitude who came to VP Leni’s Pasay rally that day as a “pink explosion gift” for her birthday, perhaps, only a handful might have noticed such a quiet but pivotal gift of the "Breaking News" for her that day. The striking contrast between the two rallies could have been highlighted by the two drone shots of the breathtaking views of the actual happening on the ground. Marcos Jr.’s crowd seemed to have no drone shot. Otherwise, it would look too pathetic in contrast to that of VP Leni’s crowd – negating his survey’s frontrunner status and degrading his operatives’ mind-conditioning propaganda of “game over” and “landslide” projections.

All the more one would wonder with the extraordinary phenomenon of the multitude who showed up in VP Leni’s rallies. I recall a past column “Power Point” by Manila Standard’s Elizabeth Angsioco’s who wondered:

“I have never seen a campaign where people willingly volunteer their time, talent, and resources freely. Artists and graphic designers come up with Leni and Kiko campaign material designs for free and post the same for anyone to use. Using available designs, people spend their own money to produce tarpaulins, stickers, comics, ballers, shirts, fans, bags, and other paraphernalia. They then distribute these for free…What is amazing is that people who do not personally know each other respond, share resources, and work together on this campaign.”

GOD-INSPIRED

Ma’am, not only did I see one, but I also did “live” through one similar campaign many years ago – Gawad Kalinga’s heyday. Let me share the following episode of such campaign I wrote in my past ATABAY article “Lugaw Means You Never Have to Say You’re Sorry Coz You’re Left Behind.”

“It was a different kind of weekend I experienced in our [Gawad Kalinga] work with the poor by our community Couples for Christ (CFC) many years ago. I told my wife that particular morning to just stay home because our mission site was known to be rebel-infested and we were notified by the local authorities to leave the area before dark.

“Our group mostly men, with only a handful of female doctors in our medical team, rode in a dump truck loaded with our construction materials and tools paid up by CFC members ourselves through voluntary financial contributions. We made our way over a few kilometers stretch of a rugged road leading to the site. When we got there, we were a little bit surprised because the cluster of dilapidated houses in varying stages of disrepair looked abandoned. We saw no one around. All of a sudden, an elderly man appeared and talked to our mission head. We got to know that our Muslim brethren had gotten inside their houses when we arrived. They might have been caught napping, figuratively speaking, when our group appeared all at once. We could be the only people, more so Christians, they ever faced that would do some repair works in their houses at the same time at no cost.

“One by one, people started to come out from their houses when our medical team set things moving with their stethoscopes. In like manner, the noise of hammers, saws, and brooms resounded around the neighborhood from our carpentry, painting, and cleaning teams going all out with their respective repair jobs. Racing against time before sundown, we got our hands full all day long immersed in all types of repairs.

“After listening with a stethoscope to heartbeats on the final chest, after hammering the last nail, painting the last coat, and sealing all the roof leaks, we stacked up against our tools, gadgets, and accessories, and without any closing fanfare for our job well done, we cleared the area just right before the dreaded nightfall as a precaution for security reason.”

Not so few, in the course of such a campaign, would I run into this question: Why are you doing that? Not only tough is the answer but it may confuse. So I simply reply, “It’s a God-inspired thing.”

Surely, a Kakampink feels the same.

“The kind of campaign that VP Leni is running should scare her opponents,” Ms. Angsioco closed out her column. Yes, indeed, as Marcos Jr.’s running mate seemed to affirm: “We are always running scared.”

BE A HERO

 

“And then a hero comes along

With the strength to carry on

And you cast your fears aside

And you know you can survive

So when you feel like hope is gone

Look inside you and be strong

And you’ll finally see the truth

That a hero lies in you.”

(Lyrics from the song “Hero” by Mariah Carey)

Who is a hero?

TAPAT GARBAGE COLLECTOR

He picked up a bag with P300,000 cash. Working as a garbage collector, coming from a poor family in Bulacan, the 12-year-old Gustin thought of returning the money to its rightful owner.

“Nung nakita ko yung bag, gusto ko po agad isauli iyon sa may-ari…hindi po kasi akin yon eh,” Gustin said in Rappler’s Celebrating ‘Katapatan’ – Integrity over Money article. ”Sabi po nila, huwag na isauli para po may pangtulong sa pag-aaral ko po…sabi ko po huwag na lang, isauli na lang.

(When I saw the bag, I wanted to return it to the rightful owner because it’s not mine. My friends told me to not return the money so I can use it for my education. I put my foot down and said I wanted to return it.)

Gustin learned to be “tapat” from his teachers.

“Nung malaman po nila yung ginawa ko, natuwa po sila…tinawag po nila akong batang tapat,” Gustin said.

(When my teachers learned what I did, they were very happy…they called me an honest kid.)

Gustin dreamed of becoming a soldier. When asked why: “Para po matulungan yung mga tao.” Gustin received a college scholarship and monetary rewards from different groups honoring his integrity, Rappler reported.

“Huwag…magnakaw. Huwag pong kunin ang hindi sa kanila,” Gustin advised.

(Don’t steal. Don’t get anything that’s not theirs.)

Reminds me of Robert Fulghum’s “All I Really Need to Know I Learned in Kindergarten” with this rule in his list: “Don’t take things that aren’t yours.” The young adult Gustin today could be a notable VP Leni’s endorser.

FINEST TAXI DRIVER

Reggie Cabututan, a thirty-year-old taxi driver, dropped off Trent Shields an Australian businessman who was in a hurry to get to Calle Uno building in Baguio, ABS-CBN News reported. Shields realized he had left his bag in the cab with valuables worth about $20,000 and the only thing he could recall about his ride: a white car.

Just as Shields were about to leave to file a report at the police station, all at once, a white taxi pulled in.

“All I did was go back and return [Shields’] belongings when I realized he had left them in the back seat of the taxi cab,” said Cabututan.

For his honesty, Reggie Cabututan was awarded a scholarship by Vivixx Academy and Coder Factory Academy of Australia worth around $4,400 which could lead to an internship and subsequently a five-figures-in-dollars job.

“Mr. Reggie Cabututan, driver of Dustin Brant Taxi, you are the finest of your tribe. I have never felt more proud to be Filipino than today,” Ace Estrada II, president of Vivixx Academy BPO training company wrote on Facebook.

DISCERNING JANITOR

Ronald Gadayan, a 39-year-old janitor at Naia, is known to return lost items like P2.4 million cash, iPad, iPhones, Apple Mac laptop, and jewelry, among others. For his honesty, he was rewarded and cited many times. Dropping by his home in Bulacan, Inquirer got an earful of his profound words to live by.

“If you are honest to God, everything will follow through. You may not be rewarded, but God sees you. And it shall bear fruit at the proper time.”

“It’s enough people outside the country know there are still good people and they are Filipinos.”

“Kindness never stops; it sprouts. The good deed I made happened some years ago, but people are still touched by it. Perhaps they all wanted a hero. An honest one.”

“Never get anything that is not yours. I hope our next President knows and does that, too.”

Those words were spoken eight years ago before the 2016 presidential election. Ronald Ganayan could never have thought then his ominous words are now what the nation is hoping against hope in electing our new president.

BE A HERO, WITHDRAW.

Jessica Soho (JS): Sa report ng Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism, nagbayad kayo ng tax na P9.7 million para sa income na P50.5 million. Clarification lang po. Yon po bang P50.5 million na yon is the same P50 million na na-save po ninyo from your campaign contributions?

Isko Moreno (IM): Yes, because I had to pay taxes, kapag may natira sa kampanya dahil yon namay pooled account, pooled money, ibat-ibang tao, you have to declare, tapos kapag yon ay nasa iyo na, ay kailangan mo magbayad ng buwis, which is yon ang ginawa ko.

JS: Pero tama po ba na nasa income nyo po yon?

IM: Yon ang sinasabi ng BIR, kailangan mo kasi, hawak-hawak mo ang pera. Limited ang gastusin mo sa kampanya. Sumobra ang donation mo. So tangan-tangan mo yong pera. Kailangan ka magbayad ng buwis. At yon ay lumalabas na income mo.

JS: Nasaan na po yong pera?

IM: Nasa akin.

JS: Income. Part of your income. Wala ho bang violation doon?

IM: As long na nagbabayad ka ng buwis.

Comelec spokesperson James Jimenez said that there is no rule mandating the candidate to return the excess funds to the donor or use it for charitable purposes. He clarified:

“The only rule that there is can be found in revenue regulations issued by the BIR (Bureau of Internal Revenue) which state very clearly that unspent campaign funds shall be treated as income and shall be subject to the payment of the appropriate income tax.”

In the U.S. (where the Philippine Constitution was based), the Federal Election Commission has strict rules about what federal candidates can and can’t do with leftover campaign money. The biggest directive is that they can’t pocket it for personal use. The rules were based on a study that showed a third of Congress personally kept and spent millions in campaign donations. Congress was embarrassed and consequently passed a law against this custom.

“Leftover campaign funds are not necessarily a good thing…That’s great for a house [construction], but a bad sign in a campaign. Individuals donated those funds with the expressed purpose of upping a candidate’s chances of election…Every dollar you have leftover is money you did not spend on campaign…” (Deborah D’Souza, writer and editor)

Isko Moreno has kept the P50 million excess campaign contributions as his income, which by definition, is “money he received for work,” and therefore, he can spend personally.

Embarrassed, U.S. Congress passed the law on leftover campaign money. Doesn’t Isko Moreno get similarly embarrassed? Why doesn’t he donate (no rule mandating against this act) the P50 million to various charitable organizations that will benefit the poor Filipinos?

To Isko Moreno: Be a hero. Withdraw that P50 million from the bank and give it to the poor.

So when you feel like hope is gone

Look inside you and be strong

And you’ll finally see the truth

That a hero lies in you.

GOOD NEWS AND WIN FOR VP LENI COURTESY OF EASTER PRESS CON

 

“We know [survey] is fake. I guarantee you it is fake. It’s not real.” (Isko Moreno)

During a joint conference at the Peninsula Manila in Makati last Sunday, Presidential aspirants Sen. Panfilo Lacson, Francisco Domagoso, and Norberto Gonzales scrapped the value of election survey results based on their following statements:

SURVEYS ARE FAKE

Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso:

“If we believe in surveys, ayan na, sana wala na kami ditong tatlo. The mere fact na nandidito kami, and we will prove to you, later on, this is subject for verification, that we can prove to you na polluted yong survey, because we have an evidence already on hand, we’re just verifying it, na yong mga enumerator, ay napasok na ng malalaking, or what you call political oligarch.

“Pulse Asia and SWS may not know it, because they are the one analyzing it. But the raw data that they are getting, maybe, maybe, subject for further study, kasi, may hawak-hawak kami ngayon, na nahuli na namin yong gumagawa ng survey sa kalsada. Kaya lang we have to verify that report. So, if we believe in numbers in the way you asked us, dapat wala kami dito.”

Panfilo Lacson:

“I don’t believe that more than 50% of Filipinos are Marcos loyalists.”

Norberto Gonzales:

“This is the first time that I saw a survey, na iniitsa pwera yong particular class in our society. Hindi ba tinanggal nila yong A & B?...Lahat ng survey natin may A, B, C, D & E. Sabi nila hindi [nila] tinanggal, kaya lang walang kumibo doon sa A & B. This is already an indicative of something that is significant. Ibig sabihin may mga taong bayan tayo na ayaw makisali sa survey.

“Now, what is the percentage of that number of people in the universe that they are talking about? Kasi, ang pinipresent sa atin always 100%. Sa tingin ko ang universe na iniikotan ng survey is not 100%. May nakapwera dyan… Kaya yong 100% [in the survey] na pinag-uusapan natin may not 100% of the voters."

Such declaration is going along with Senator Richard Gordon’s contention that called into question such surveys as early as 2010 when he formally filed a case against SWS and Pulse Asia for frequently releasing pre-election survey results.

“Are we supposed to accept the results of the surveys as gospel truth? What if they are wrong?” Senator Gordon asked then, stressing that such surveys had “robbed the people of their right to choose their leaders wisely.”

SURVEYS ARE PROPAGANDA

Question: If election survey results are fake as Isko Moreno has asserted, why are they being published and grabbing headlines? Answer: The key is embedded in Justice Leonen ruling:

“The inclusion of election surveys in the list of items regulated by the Fair Election Act is a recognition that election surveys are not a mere descriptive aggregation of data. Publishing surveys are a means to shape the preference of voters, inform the strategy of campaign machinery, and ultimately, affect the outcome of elections. ELECTION SURVEYS HAVE A SIMILAR NATURE AS ELECTION PROPAGANDA. They are expensive, normally paid for by those interested in the outcome of elections, and have tremendous consequences on election results.

 “[T]here is the bandwagon effect where ‘electors rally to support the candidate leading in the polls’… The bandwagon effect is of particular concern because of the observed human tendency to conform.

“Surveys, far from being passive ‘snapshot of many viewpoints held by a segment of the population at a given time,’ CAN WARP EXISTING PUBLIC OPINION AND CAN MOULD PUBLIC OPINION.” (Underscoring mine)

EMPTY VESSEL

If survey results are fake and whose value must be scrapped as divulged during the press con, what will be left of Marcos Jr.’s election campaign whose only card he is playing now to win in his presidential run is anchored on surveys? As an answer, let me present the excerpts of the prolific column of Marlen Ronquillo of The Manila Times.

“The answer is nothing. Nada. Even after an impossible exertion – the equivalent of an auditor’s due diligence work… one is led, to use a cyber-term, into a ‘your inbox is empty’ answer.

“[T]he theme of the Marcos campaign: unity. The tandem of Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte-Carpio, his candidate for vice president, generally answers to a name, the ‘UniTeam.’

“Marcos Jr. throws around the theme ‘unity’ with carefree abandon because there is nothing else to invoke because there are no grand visions and breakthrough political platform to undergird his vacuous campaign… [T]he campaign of Marcos Jr. is all empty words and…rests on the edifice of mythologizing.

“To put it simply, running empty. An empty vessel refused to compete in a Comelec-sponsored debate among candidates for president and where a hundred thoughts, ideas, proposals, action programs, and, yes, dreams and visions have to contend. Marcos Jr. lamely contends he has other ways of communicating his message to the public. Which mainly is that there was once a Golden Age in Philippine history and that was the disastrous reign of his deposed president-father and namesake.

“After an exhaustive due diligence audit, this is what the campaign of Marcos Jr. is all about – an empire of vacuous slogans and mythologizing.”

GOOD NEWS AND WIN FOR VP LENI

With election surveys out of contention, the two tangible indicators left for us to assess are endorsements and campaign rallies.

“Vice President Leonor ‘Leni’ has been racking up endorsements right and left, including from pro-administration stalwarts… No other candidate, and arguably even the [survey] frontrunner, has managed to mobilize the kind of ‘grand rallies’ that have graced Leni’s campaign across the country in recent weeks.” (Richard Heydarian of Inquirer)

Reacting to a rally in Pampanga that attracted more than 200,000 supporters – the biggest crowd in her presidential campaign so far, Maria Ela L. Atienza, UP political science professor said, “There is momentum on the side of the Robredo-Pangilinan team with their combination of big rallies and smaller town hall discussions and house-to-house campaigns. Their lack of centralized campaign resources is compensated by the huge voluntary spirit of many supporters. In a way, the campaign is being run not like traditional party campaigning but as a social movement.”

The following basketball metaphor (to replace VP Leni as a failing challenger to Marcos Jr.) was showcased by former Defense Secretary Norberto Gonzales during the press con:

“Hindi po ako masyado marunong maglaro ng basketball, pero dito po sa atin alam ko ang ugali, pag last two minutes na, nagpapalit pa ng player, para segurado lang na maipanalo ang kanyang team.”

            Well, here’s a classic example of a last two-minute “crunch time” in the NBA. On the scoreboard 105-99, the New York Knicks led, with 18.7 seconds remaining in the shot block. The crowd was slowly heading off to the exit for it would appear to be a “Game Over.”

All of a sudden, Indiana Pacer’s Reggie Miller had pumped up and pulled off a miracle-like feat – hitting 8 points in 9 seconds – and ultimately topping off the final score of 107-105 improbable victory.

By the way, Reggie Miller ranks 3^rd all-time in career three-point field goals in NBA. No wonder.

Carrying out Mr. Gonzales strategy, right before the start of the final two minutes, he would replace Reggie Miller with another player from the bench – and lose the game.

Boo.

THE GREAT UNFAIRNESS

 

“There is a video of you having sex on the internet. You do not remember being with this person because it never happened. Others are watching the video online, too.

“The video is unfamiliar because it is a deepfake – an 'ultrarealistic fake video' where your face is superimposed onto another person’s body through the use of artificial intelligence software. And someone has published it online for the world to see. This is not science fiction.

“All one needs is a computer, a decent graphics card, the FakeApp program, hundreds of pictures of the desired person, and a few hours. A tutorial is easily accessible online.

“Deepfakes are not only going to be used for self-gratification, but also have the potential to be used to extort, humiliate, harass, and blackmail victims.” (Deepfakes: False Pornography Is Here And The Law Cannot Protect You by Douglas Harris)

DEEPFAKE SEX VIDEO

The latest victim is Ms. Aika Robredo, the daughter of VP Leni. The restorative words of Archbishop Socrates B. Villegas to Ms. Robredo were what she emotionally needed in the wake of such a traumatic experience.

“You are going to be a stronger woman of character after all these have faded away. Lies and liars die in time. Only Truth is forever. For the moment you suffer, but this suffering can only make you better.”

For Rana Ayyub, investigative journalist and writer, a victim of the same deepfake, it was suffering like no other which she narrated in Huffington Post:

“I met a friend for coffee…a source… sent me a message to say, ‘Something is circulating around WhatsApp, I’m going to send to you but promise me you won’t feel upset.’

“What he sent me was a porn video, and the woman in it was me. When I first opened it, I was shocked to see my face, but I could tell it wasn’t actually me…I started throwing up. I just didn’t know what to do. In a country like India, I knew this was a big deal. I didn’t know how to react, I just started crying.

“I asked him why it was circulating within political circles and he told me people within the party had been passing it on. Before I could even gather myself, my phone started beeping and I saw I had more than 100 Twitter notifications, all sharing the video.

“My friend told me to delete Twitter but I couldn’t, I didn’t want people to think this was actually me. I went to Facebook and I had been inundated with messages there too. They were trying to derail me, every other person was harassing me with comments like: “I never knew you had such a stunning body.”

“I deleted my Facebook, I just couldn’t take it. But on Instagram, under every single one of my posts, the comments were filling with screenshots of the video…The video was shared 40,000 more times. It ended up on almost every phone in India.

"It was devastating. I just couldn’t show my face. You can call yourself a journalist, you can call yourself a feminist but in that moment, I just couldn’t see through the humiliation.”

WHAT HAVE I DONE TO YOU?

I could only imagine VP Leni, as a mother, screaming deep in her heart, to the dark world of haters of her family. ”What have I done to you?” “What have I offended you?”

Those same questions Jesus could have screamed deep in his heart while being nailed on the cross.

“What more should I have done, and did not do?

I led you out of the land of Egypt, and you prepared a cross for me.

I opened the Red Sea before you, and you opened my side with a lance.

I gave you a royal scepter, and you gave me a crown of thorns.

With great power I lifted you up, and you hung me upon a cross.

My people, what have I done to you? What have I offended you?

Answer me.” (From the Reproaches of Good Friday)

Senator Leila de Lima said Aika’s deepfake is “so 2016.” That year, coming at the height of the hearing of her illegal drug-related charges, de Lima also fell victim to an accusation of having a sex video with her security aide. She stressed:

“Demonizing women has been a go-to, and desperate political strategy in the past 6 years. Galawang sindikato talaga. Matitigil lang yan kapag natanggalan na ng sungay ang mga nagtatangkang bumalik sa kapangyarihan at yung mga nagtatangkang manatili. (It’s what the syndicates do. It will only stop once we remove the horns of those who want to return to and maintain their power.)

DISINFORMATION

The election disinformation has targeted mainly VP Leni receiving negative messaging while Marcos Jr. earning positive branding according to Tsek.ph study, a fact-finding collaboration of 34 academe, media, and civil society partners.

“Robredo’s quotes have been mangled, twisted, [or] fabricated to make her look like she is spouting nonsense. She has been called, rather harshly, Madumb, lutang, tanga, utal-utal.” (Yvonne Chua, journalism professor, and Tsek.ph’s project leader)

Disinformation “is really priming the audience to rationalize [the Marcos] lies and distortions,” asserted Fatima Gaw, assistant professor of communication research at the University of the Philippines College of Mass Communication.

Carl Jung, a Swiss psychiatrist and psychoanalyst, asserted that in the face of the real powers that dominate us, only an equally real power can offer help. If Disinformation is such a dominating power, what is the equally real power that can help us?

The Press? Nobel laureate Maria Reesa said a mouthful about the state of our Fourth Estate today.

“I think this moment, this once in a century moment, not only because of Corona virus, everything has been turned upside-down. The biggest challenge for professional journalists is to realize that we no longer have the power. We’re not the gatekeepers anymore. We have lost that power. We lost that a long time ago. Maybe, as early as 2014…The power is in Tech, it is in social media. Facebook is the largest distributor of news today…E.O. Wilson [biologist, naturalist, and writer] said that our greatest problem is Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions, and god-like technology.”

MARCOS JR AND HIS GOD-LIKE TECHNOLOGY

I have brought up a lot of times in my past ATABAY articles this following sticky expose to stir minds as to the toxic role this particular mischief has played in the Disinformation that has been turning everything “upside down” as Maria Reesa asserted.  For the nth time, let me say, if truth be told, the “embryo” of this Disinformation was first spawned in 2014 as exposed by whistleblower Brittany Kaiser of the infamous Cambridge Analytica:

“When I joined Cambridge Analytica in 2014 we had already worked in the Philippines. There was a national campaign where my former company had gone in and undertaken national research to figure out what was the type of persona that would resonate best with voters…

“We had a request straight from Bongbong Marcos to do a FAMILY REBRANDING. This was brought in through internal staff at Cambridge Analytica and was debated. Some people didn’t want to touch it and there were others like our CEO Alexander Nix that saw it as a massive financial opportunity and asked us to write the proposal anyway. So, as you call it: HISTORICAL REVISIONISM.” (Underscoring mine)

Just as Jesus came to grips with the “great unfairness” during His incarnation, so too VP Leni has been coming up against this seeming “great unfairness” seeping through this election process. This hymn excerpt by William Cowper is transcendent:

“God moves in a mysterious way,

His wonders to perform,

He plants his footsteps in the sea,

And rides upon the storm.”

That reminds me of a VP Leni’s FB viral meme: “They whispered to her ‘you cannot withstand the storm.’ ‘I am the storm’ she whispered back.”

In the same way as what came upon Jesus after His crucifixion, would the crucial 9^th of May -- VP Leni’s Easter Sunday?

Happy Easter!

MIRACLE: THAT'S THE WORD!

 

The Manila Times (MT), the not-so-fond-of-VP-Leni newspaper out-scooped its competitors in its recent headline: “Leni Needs A Miracle To Win.” A little bit belated scoop since the so-called “miracle” has already been happening since the beginning of VP Leni’s campaign.

Besides, what MT might be getting in the field, figuratively, is the picture of a lame “miracle” that is “natural” – a miracle of sharing – like the story in the Bible in which one interpretation is that the crowd of 5,000 people that had gathered to hear Jesus simply shared their bread and fish together.  Such a lame idea of a “miracle of sharing” that MT has sized up in VP Leni’s campaign would surely be bound to fail -- for though the selflessness of sharing is free-flowing, the actual quantity of “bread and fish” available is wanting.

Quite the contrary, VP Leni’s campaign is more than that -- not only is it “natural,” but it transcends for it is “supernatural.” Let’s go over the Bible story briefly. It was evening in a lonely place, and Jesus’ disciples told him to send the crowd away so they could go to the village and buy something for themselves to eat. But Jesus said: “You give them something to eat.” His disciples said they had nothing but five loaves and two fishes. Jesus said: “Bring them here to me.” And the rest is His story.

RADIKAL MAGMAHAL                                                           

The key: Entrust to God the little we have, and let Him do the rest. VP Leni in her campaign has been entrusting to God the little she has – her volunteers – going house to house in sharing with the Filipino people, especially the poor and the marginalized (mga nasa laylayan), the “bread and fish” which symbolizes the essence of Love that has inspired VP Leni’s rallying cry: Radikal Magmahal. “Instead of quarreling with others,” she said, “go feed the hungry.”  Peeved by the heightened trolling, her camp has been dealing with ever since she made her presidential bid, her frenzied supporters responded: “Ma’am we’re really annoyed, but we remembered what you said. So we just channeled our energy to somewhere else.”

As spelled out in the Bible, Love is “patient, kind… not ill-mannered… withstands anger… does not delight in the wrong, but rejoices with the truth.” Taking along with them such fragrances of Love in their house-to-house campaign, surely, they could “endure all things” with faith and hope.

This refreshing FB post tells of such expression: “Radikal Magmahal”.

“Volunteers from Robredo People’s Council (RPC) – Leyte deployed their vehicles to ferry some supporters of UniTeam BBM-Sara campaign rally in Tacloban City after the latter were stranded Saturday evening, April 9, 2022, due to heavy rains brought about by tropical depression Agaton.

“’Helping regardless of color. Thanks to the volunteers!’ wrote EJ Pongos, one of the RPC –Leyte volunteers, in an FB post.

“After the rally, the volunteers also offered snacks and accommodations to other attendees who were stranded in the city.”

Another FB post by Kikay Booba in the wake of VP Leni’s Pasig rally I mentioned in my past article “The Pink Awakening” has been so uplifting that it will never fail to relieve any doubts of dashed hopes in our country’s future each time I read it.

“Ang bait ng mga tao, tunay na pagkakaisa. Five times ko na witness na during the whole program may tatlo na cellphones, isang wallet, isang shades, may IPhone 13 pa na bukal na isinoli sa event team para dalhin sa lost and found so that they can announce kung sinong owners. Sa dinamidami ng tao sa rally sa Pasig, walang nagnakaw ng mga yon at maayos pang naibalik sa owners. Amazing!”

(People are kind, real unity. Five times I witnessed during the program: 3 cellphones (1 iPhone 13), a wallet, a sunglasses, were honestly turned over to the event team’s lost and found so they could be announced. Amid the Pasig rally mammoth crowd, no one stole them and were properly returned to their rightful owners. Amazing!)

SERENDIPITY

Rather than a “miracle,” I would like to call this following phenomenon a “serendipity.” Dr. M. Scott Peck, author of the book “The Road Less Traveled” wrote:

“However hard we may try, the reality is that we humans can never will miracles into being. This fact, this lack of control, is one of the reasons the secular generally turn a blind eye to the miraculous in life. They fail to see the grace – and hence the proof – of God and God’s love.

“I know that grace is real. There is a pattern to these highly improbable events: almost all seemed to have a beneficial outcome. I had stumbled upon a synonym for grace: serendipity.”

Mr. Webster defines “serendipity” as “the gift of finding valuable or agreeable things not sought for.” Dr. Peck noted that such a definition “has several intriguing features. One is that serendipity is termed a gift, which implies that some people possess it while others don’t, that some people are lucky and others are not.” The following excerpted story will showcase the essence of serendipity.

“Imelda Marcos Is Sentenced to Decades in Prison for Corruption” (New York Times, Nov. 9, 2018)

“Manila – A Philippine court on Friday sentenced Imelda R. Marcos, the country’s flamboyant former first lady, to a minimum of 42 years in prison for creating private foundations to hide her unexplained wealth.

“But it is unlikely that Mrs. Marcos, an 89-year-old widow, will see any jail time. The court, which handles graft and public corruption cases, said the ruling could be appealed, and legal experts have said Mrs. Marcos could fight a prison sentence because of her advanced age.

“The sentence comes as Mrs. Marcos and her family have seen a political resurgence in the Philippines, having gained favor under the presidency of Rodrigo Duterte. The court found her guilty of seven counts of graft, with each count punishable by a minimum of six years in prison.

“The charges were filed in 1991 when state prosecutors accused Mrs. Marcos of creating private foundations in Switzerland and having financial interests in several companies when she was governor of Manila between 1978 and 1984. Prosecutors said the fake firms hid money that her family stole from the government.

“The government successfully recovered some $658 million that the Marcoses held in Swiss financial institutions. But officials believe that is just a fraction of the roughly $10 billion they say the Marcoses stole from the Philippines.”

Former PCGG Commissioner Ruben Carranza in his FB video explained that the Supreme Court in convicting Mrs. Marcos applied the Republic Act 1379 – An act declaring forfeiture in favor of the state of any property found to have been unlawfully acquired by any public officer or employee. Mr. Carranza looked back to the beginning of RA 1379: it was a House Bill 479 that was filed in 1954 (serendipitously the year I was born) by, ta-da, Congressman Ferdinand Marcos Sr.!

Right there and then, Carranza’s viewers commented “Karma” – meted out, by the gift of “serendipity,” to “unlucky” people who don’t possess such a gift. Mr. Carranza wrapped up his narrative by quoting Martin Luther King, Jr.: “The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.”

By contrast, as a “miracle,” is such a gift of “serendipity” intended to fulfill “lucky” VP Leni’s presidency?