“The dirty little secrets of… survey… they are largely junk science, placing marketing objectives of telling and selling a good story, above the practical and ethical objective of telling the truth… Often statistical methods are misused, corrupting survey results while providing an air of scientific legitimacy…” - “Surveys and Dirty Little Secret: Hidden Distortion, Bias Illusion of Scientific Validity”
For years, political surveys have been touted as scientific tools to gauge public sentiment. But the 2025 senatorial elections pulled the curtain on that illusion. Once dismissed as non-contenders, Paolo Benigno Bam Aquino and Francis Kiko Pangilinan – both perennial laggards in pre-election surveys – rose dramatically in actual results, clinching the 2nd and 5th spots, respectively.
This sharp deviation has prompted introspection among pollsters. Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes has acknowledged the need to reassess their methodology, particularly to reflect better the perspectives of younger voters, including Millennials and Gen Z.
University of the Philippines statistician Peter Cayton recommended a thorough post mortem analysis of why projections diverged so starkly from reality.
As someone who has previously written about this phenomenon, I offer a few thoughts from my April 6, 2024, ATABAY piece, The Unseen Impact: How Early Surveys & Non-Responders Shape PH Elections, reimagined in light of this evolving controversy.
The Silent Voter: A Cautionary Tale
Imagine this: You’re a Bam-Kiko supporter, navigating the busy streets of the city when a friendly surveyor approaches with a clipboard.
“Sorry to bother you,” she says, “I’m surveying about the upcoming election. Would you like to participate?”
You hesitate. Memories of past surveys – those that confidently forecasted one outcome but delivered another – cloud your mind. You’ve read about survey manipulation, statistical misdirection, and built-in biases that make participation feel like complicity in a larger scheme.
Worse, you recall seeing a survey already floating around for the 2028 presidential elections – three years too early. It didn’t feel like an attempt to listen to the people. It felt like propaganda.
With a polite but resolute tone, you decline.
“I’ve lost faith in surveys,” you say. “They’ve failed us before.”
The surveyor nods, perhaps understanding more than she lets on.
“Your voice matters,” she says. “But I understand.”
And just like that, she disappears into the crowd, unaware that her brief encounter reflects a deeper crisis in the democratic process. That moment wasn’t just about a missed data point. It was a revelation of non-response bias, the erosion of public trust, and the weaponization of surveys as tools of manipulation rather than as instruments of truth.
Crowds, Drones, and the Collapse of Illusions
How many disillusioned voters like the one in that vignette exist today? The answer might lie in a moment often overlooked: the 2022 campaign rallies of then-Vice President Leni Robredo and Ferdinand Bongbong Marcos Jr.
On the same evening in Metro Manila, Leni drew a crowd of over 400,000 in Pasay, while Bongbong’s rally in Sampaloc gathered around 14,000. Drone shots – or lack thereof – spoke volumes. Leni’s sweeping crowd filled every pixel. Bongbong’s event? Curiously missing aerial coverage, perhaps because showing it would shatter the illusion of a landslide.
If news outlets had dared to juxtapose those images, a banner headline might have read:
VP Leni’s Rally (400,000+) Beats 28-Fold Marcos Jr.’s Crowd (14,000)
A quiet but powerful birthday gift.
VP Leni 2022 Pasay Campaign Rally
Add to this the still-unresolved 2022 election transmission anomalies, such as Eliseo Rio’s concerns over the IP address 192.168.0.2, and the collapse of the Duter10 supposedly political juggernaut - the narrative of the so-called 31 million votes for Bongbong begins to look increasingly implausible.
The Anatomy of Manufactured Consent
As early as February 2022, I warned of how surveys were being leveraged not just to inform, but to manipulate. Bongbong’s campaign had effectively co-opted every major communication channel – social media, news outlets, and, yes, survey firms.
The headlines were simultaneous and relentless:
“Marcos Jr. Leads Latest Pulse Asia Survey For Presidential Race” – Inquirer
“Pulse Asia: Marcos’ Lead Grows…” – Philstar
“Bongbong, Sara Keep Survey Lead” – The Manila Times
“Sara Leads By A Mile For VP” – Manila Standard
“BBM, Sara Keep Pole Positions In Surveys” – Daily Tribune
But are such surveys truly news, or just cleverly disguised propaganda? As former Senator Richard Gordon asked in 2010 while suing Pulse Asia and SWS:
“Are we supposed to accept the results of the survey as gospel truth? What if they are wrong?”
The Case for Skepticism – and Reform
Worldwide, trust in polling has plummeted. From the U.S. elections of 2016 and 2020 to recent misfires in Europe and Asia, it’s become clear: polling is broken. In the U.S., Real Clear Politics at least has aggregated data from multiple pollsters to mitigate bias. Here in the Philippines, we seem to rely overwhelmingly on a single entity – Pulse Asia.
The words of filmmaker Darryl Yap strike a raw but resonant chord:
“We are just stupid… I don’t get offended when people say, “O nabudol ka.”
A Wake-Up Call - Courtesy of Bam and Kiko
In many ways, the unexpected electoral success of Bam and Kiko serves as an exorcism of this “budol” culture. It’s a vindication for voters who refused to be gaslit by survey headlines and media narratives. It reminds that democracy is not measured in percentage printed on clipboards, but in the lived convictions of people who show up – whether in the streets, at the polls, or in quiet defiance.
The time has come to stop treating surveys as scripture. Instead, let’s demand transparency, multiplicity of legit sources, and a robust public discourse that values truth over trend.
Let the voters, not the surveys, shape our future.
Content & editing put together in collaboration with ChatGPT
Head photo courtesy of Rappler & Canva
Still photos courtesy of GMA, YouTube, Philippine News Agency, & The Today Show
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