Politics thrives on irony, and few moments capture it better than former President Rodrigo Duterte’s landslide mayoral victory in Davao, won from thousands of miles away in The Hague detention cell. The strongman who once ruled Malacañang with an iron fist now wields power from exile, even as his name is etched into an international court proceedings for crimes against humanity.
The immediate, almost reflexive question arises: Can he truly govern Davao from The Hague after his landslide victory? But beyond the technicalities lies a far more gut-wrenching twist - is this astonishing win the political resurrection of a man defying the odds, or merely the “last hurrah” of a dynasty on the verge of fading into history?
“Rodrigo Duterte wins Philippines mayoral election from jail in The Hague” – The Guardian headline
As two swords of Damocles hang over Sara Duterte’s impeachment in Manila and her father’s prosecution in The Hague, the road to 2028 that once seemed inevitable is shrinking beneath her feet – a reckoning she cannot outrun.
A Shrinking Road - A Reckoning Awaiting
Sara’s road to the 2028 presidential race was once wide and promising, paved by a powerful family name and a regional dominance. But time has a way of narrowing paths, especially for those caught between history’s harsh judgments and the weight of unspoken truths.
Sara now approaches two crucial crossroads, each bearing a sword of Damocles, hanging precariously over her political fate. The first is a two-edged sword – her impeachment trial – sharpened by accountability and political warfare, threatening to open a Pandora’s box of her family’s alleged hidden wealth, among others, accumulated over decades of rule in Davao.
“Sara Duterte wants impeachment trial to go on, sees ‘bloodbath’” – Bangkok Post headline
The second, even more ominous, is her father’s trial at The Hague. What Sara imagines her impeachment to be – a political bloodbath – is nothing compared to the real bloodbath of testimonies about extrajudicial killings, delivered by families of the thousands slain during her father’s reign of terror.
These two trials – one in the Philippines and one on the world stage – are not mere legal battles. They are reckonings that will define the Duterte name for generations.
The Impeachment Sword: A Risk Beyond The Verdict
Impeachment is never just about guilt or innocence – it is about the unearthing of truths long hidden. Sara’s impeachment trial has already peeled back layers of financial secrecy, with House prosecutors seeking to subpoena her bank records since her confidential funds scandal seems to be merely the tip of the iceberg.
Former Senator Antonio Trillanes has long alleged that the Duterte family’s wealth is far greater than publicly disclosed, pointing to three decades of power in Davao as the foundation of this political dynasty. If the Senate court allows the bank records to be scrutinized, it could shatter the Duterte dynasty’s credibility, revealing transactions shielded for decades under bank secrecy laws.
“Duterte’s hidden wealth is sure sign of kleptocracy” – De Lima
Even if acquitted, Sara will not walk away unscathed. The process itself ensures that her reputation will remain in question, fueling doubts about financial integrity and her ability to lead a nation.
The Hague Prosecution: A Legacy On Trial
While Sara Duterte fights for her survival in the Senate, her father is fighting a very different battle at The Hague. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has charged her father with crimes against humanity, alleging his war on drugs – first enacted in Davao and later nationwide – as a systematic campaign of terror.
Sara rushed to The Hague after her father’s arrest, overseeing his legal defense. But the real challenge lies not in the courtroom, but in public perception.
How does one run for president while defending a father accused of state-sponsored killings? How does one distance oneself from a legacy soaked in blood, while needing that legacy to secure political power?
The ICC trial will cast Rodrigo Duterte’s rule in harrowing detail, as families of victims recount chilling narratives of executions, forced disappearances, and ominous death lists that terrorized the poor and powerless. These testimonies will not only cement Duterte’s global disrepute but will also inevitably place a weight upon Sara - one she must bear, whether she wills it or not.
Fully aware of this sobering reality, Duterte's defense lawyers have been going all out in seeking to have the case dismissed outright, arguing lack of jurisdiction before proceedings even begin.
Can Sara Recover?
The two swords hanging over her fate do not just threaten her credibility – they cast doubt over her entire political future. Whether she is acquitted or convicted, whether her father wins or loses his case at The Hague, Sara must attempt an extraordinary political recovery if she still hopes to stand in 2028.
Here’s how she might try to rebuild her name:
1. Reframing the Narrative: Positioning herself as a victim of political persecution, arguing that both trials were engineered to silence the Duterte legacy.
2. Forging New Alliances: Rallying disillusioned allies and creating an independent political bloc to salvage her influence.
3. Pivoting to Governance Reforms: Focusing on education, national security, and economic recovery, shifting the conversation away from her legal troubles.
4. Leveraging Regional Strength: Mindanao remains her fortress, and she may try to consolidate local backing to fuel the comeback.
5. Distancing from The Hague Trial: Finding a subtle way to acknowledge her father’s legacy without fully embracing its controversies, though this may prove impossible.
But - a big but - will any of this be enough? The electorate has started to change, as shown by the recent midterm election. Sara herself was disappointed at the Senate race results: “Not the outcome we had hoped for.” Politics is no longer just about loyalty and dynasty – it is about scrutiny, credibility, and survival under the weight of exposed truths.
The Process, Not The Verdict, Will Decide Her Fate
The two trials – one in Manila, one in The Hague – are not simply about legal outcomes. They are reckonings that go beyond courts and verdicts. They are about the exposure of long-protected truths, truths that will shape the Duterte name forever.
Even if Sara survives impeachment and her father avoids conviction, the public discourse surrounding their legacy will not fade.
In the end, when history delivers its final judgment, it will not be the verdicts that shape the legacy – it will be the journey that exposed the cracks, not merely the destination that sought to contain them. It will be the revelations that dismantled illusions, not the legalities that sought to preserve them.
And when all is laid bare – when truth, raw and unfiltered (remember Piattos & Chippy et al controversy?), spills forth like an exposé too glaring to ignore – the reckoning will come, not in the cold pronouncements of a court, but in the collective awakening of a nation.
Content & editing put together in collaboration with Microsoft Bing AI-Powered Co-Pilot
Head photo courtesy of ChatGPT Image Creator & Canva
Still photos courtesy of Eloisa Lopez/Reuters, Rappler, ICC, & Depositphotos.
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